DESIGUALDADE DE RENDA E CRESCIMENTO ECONÔMICO NOS MUNICÍPIOS DA REGIÃO NORDESTE DO BRASIL: O QUE OS DADOS TÊM A DIZER?

This paper analyses the inverted-U hypothesis between income inequality and economic growth to the cities of northeast of Brazil from 1970 to 1991. To it was used econometric analysis of cross section and panel data to the information from Atlas de Desenvolvimento Humano no Brasil. The results not refute the existence of a Kuznets curve.

DAYLIGHT SAVING TIME AND HOMICIDES: LIGHT EFFECT IN CRIMES OF A BRAZILIAN STATE

This article analyzes the effect of daylight saving time (DST) on crimes inthe Brazilian state of Rio Grande do Sul. With the argument that DST provides “more”hours of light throughout the day, it is expected that the criminal behavior will reduce atits implantation, since a clearer environment can dissuade the potential criminal. Making use of several regression discontinuity design (RDD) models and a daily databaseranging from 2006 to 2014 of the Mortality Information System (SIM) of Datasus, themodels were estimated separately by year, being able to include wheater independentvariables (such as temperature, precipitation and wind speed) and fixed effects of daysof the week. It was evidenced that DST has no significant effect on changes in homiciderates per 100,000 inhabitants, neither in its beginning, nor its end. On the other hand,it has been found that, in general, there is a strong weekend effect on criminal activityand some evidence that homicide rates are related to temperature.Este artigo analisa o efeito do horário de verão (HV) sobre os crimes no estado do Rio Grande do Sul (BR). Com o argumento de que o HV fornece “mais” horasde luz ao longo do dia, espera-se que o comportamento criminoso diminua na suaimplantação, uma vez que um ambiente mais claro pode dissuadir o potencial criminoso. Utilizando diversos modelos de regressão descontinuidade e um banco de dadosdiário de 2006 a 2014 do Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade (SIM) do Datasus,os modelos foram estimados separadamente por ano, podendo incluir variáveis independentes de maior temperatura (como temperatura, precipitação e velocidade dovento) e efeitos fixos de dias da semana. Evidenciou-se que o HV não tem efeito significativo na mudança das taxas de homicídio por 100.000 habitantes, nem em seu início,nem em seu fim. Por outro lado, verificou-se que, em geral, há um forte efeito de fim desemana sobre a atividade criminosa e algumas evidências de que as taxas de homicídioestão relacionadas à temperatura

Crescimento da Produtividade no setor de serviços e da indústria no Brasil: dinâmica e heterogeneidade

This work aimed to evaluate the evolution of the service sector productivity focusing on the relationship between structure and growth. Information from the National Accounts and from the Annual Services Survey (PAS in Portuguese) was used, as well as decompositions to investigate productivity dynamics. The results show that the service sector is a sector with high productivity. Productivity growth in services was positive from 2002 to 2009 and since 1996 its performance was superior to manufacturing. There is no evidence supporting the existence of the cost disease in Brazil and neither in industry nor in services a positive relation between changes in the structure and productivity gains, known as structural bonus was found.O presente estudo analisa a evolução da produtividade do setor de serviços focando na relação entre estrutura e crescimento. A partir das informações das Contas Nacionais e da Pesquisa Anual de Serviços e do uso de decomposições para explorar a dinâmica da produtividade, os resultados mostram que o setor de serviços é um setor com alta produtividade. No período de 2002 a 2009, a evolução da produtividade desse setor foi positiva com um desempenho superior ao da indústria de transformação desde 1996. Não há evidências favoráveis para a existência da doença de custos no Brasil e tanto na indústria como nos serviços, não se verificou uma associação positiva entre mudanças na estrutura e ganhos de produtividade, o chamado bônus estrutural

Flutuações cíclicas na produção industrial e no desemprego no Rio Grande do Sul: algumas evidências empíricas

The presence of high inflation rates during 80's and first half of 90's deviates the attention of policy makers to the monthly fluctuations in the price indexes focusing the economic policy to the stabilization plans. Therefore since 1994 the brazilian price stabilization have been bringing on economic literature and economic policy as a central problem the existence of long run fluctuations in variables like unemployment and industrial production. The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the presence of long run fluctuations in two representative series of Rio Grande do Sul economy: the industrial production Index and the unemployment rate. The classical methodology consists on detrending the series and then filter the cyclical component. This procedure has a disadvantage if the series presents unit roots in the specification of the true stochastic process that governs the series. An alternative way is to use the Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter to isolates the cyclical component. In particular this methodology was adopted in this paper. Our results suggests the existence of four distinct cycles foa a period of sixteen years (1982-1998).The presence of high inflation rates during 80's and first half of 90's deviates the attention of policy makers to the monthly fluctuations in the price indexes focusing the economic policy to the stabilization plans. Therefore since 1994 the brazilian price stabilization have been bringing on economic literature and economic policy as a central problem the existence of long run fluctuations in variables like unemployment and industrial production. The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the presence of long run fluctuations in two representative series of Rio Grande do Sul economy: the industrial production Index and the unemployment rate. The classical methodology consists on detrending the series and then filter the cyclical component. This procedure has a disadvantage if the series presents unit roots in the specification of the true stochastic process that governs the series. An alternative way is to use the Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter to isolates the cyclical component. In particular this methodology was adopted in this paper. Our results suggests the existence of four distinct cycles foa a period of sixteen years (1982-1998)

RECESSÕES ECONÔMICAS REDUZEM A TAXA DE MORTALIDADE? EVIDÊNCIAS PARA O BRASIL

The paper investigates de relationship between employment rate and mortality rate in Brazil during the period 1981-2002. It briefly reviews the literature on macroeconomic conditions and health, emphasizing the existence of two controversial hypothesis. The Ruhm's Hypothesis suggest that high unemployment rates associated with lower mortality and vice versa stands in stark contrast to Brenner's earlier work, who found the opposite effect. The paper follows the methodology put forward Ruhm (2000) to estimate the impact of employment on mortality rate. Controlling for a state-specific effects using a static and dynamic panel data model, we find evidence that total mortality rate is higher in recessions, i.e. when improved the condition macroeconomics occur a fall in mortality rate. This result suggests that we accept the Brenner's hypothesis in opposite to Ruhm's hypothesis.