The fallacy of placing confidence in confidence intervals

Interval estimates – estimates of parameters that include an allowance for sampling uncertainty – have long been touted as a key component of statistical analyses. There are several kinds of interval estimates, but the most popular are confidence intervals (CIs): intervals that contain the true parameter value in some known proportion of repeated samples, on average. The width of confidence intervals is thought to index the precision of an estimate; CIs are thought to be a guide to which parameter values are plausible or reasonable; and the confidence coefficient of the interval (e.g., 95 %) is thought to index the plausibility that the true parameter is included in the interval. We show in a number of examples that CIs do not necessarily have any of these properties, and can lead to unjustified or arbitrary inferences. For this reason, we caution against relying upon confidence interval theory to justify interval estimates, and suggest that other theories of interval estimation should be used instead

Standard errors and confidence intervals in within-subjects designs: Generalizing Loftus and Masson (1994) and avoiding the biases of alternative accounts

Repeated measures designs are common in experimental psychology. Because of the correlational structure in these designs, the calculation and interpretation of confidence intervals is nontrivial. One solution was provided by Loftus and Masson (Psychonomic Bulletin & Review 1:476–490, 1994). This solution, although widely adopted, has the limitation of implying same-size confidence intervals for all factor levels, and therefore does not allow for the assessment of variance homogeneity assumptions (i.e., the circularity assumption, which is crucial for the repeated measures ANOVA). This limitation and the method’s perceived complexity have sometimes led scientists to use a simplified variant, based on a per-subject normalization of the data (Bakeman & McArthur, Behavior Research Methods, Instruments, & Computers 28:584–589, 1996; Cousineau, Tutorials in Quantitative Methods for Psychology 1:42–45, 2005; Morey, Tutorials in Quantitative Methods for Psychology 4:61–64, 2008; Morrison & Weaver, Behavior Research Methods, Instruments, & Computers 27:52–56, 1995). We show that this normalization method leads to biased results and is uninformative with regard to circularity. Instead, we provide a simple, intuitive generalization of the Loftus and Masson method that allows for assessment of the circularity assumption

Head Position in Stroke Trial (HeadPoST)- sitting-up vs lying-flat positioning of patients with acute stroke: study protocol for a cluster randomised controlled trial

Background Positioning a patient lying-flat in the acute phase of ischaemic stroke may improve recovery and reduce disability, but such a possibility has not been formally tested in a randomised trial. We therefore initiated the Head Position in Stroke Trial (HeadPoST) to determine the effects of lying-flat (0°) compared with sitting-up (≥30°) head positioning in the first 24 hours of hospital admission for patients with acute stroke. Methods/Design We plan to conduct an international, cluster randomised, crossover, open, blinded outcome-assessed clinical trial involving 140 study hospitals (clusters) with established acute stroke care programs. Each hospital will be randomly assigned to sequential policies of lying-flat (0°) or sitting-up (≥30°) head position as a ‘business as usual’ stroke care policy during the first 24 hours of admittance. Each hospital is required to recruit 60 consecutive patients with acute ischaemic stroke (AIS), and all patients with acute intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH) (an estimated average of 10), in the first randomised head position policy before crossing over to the second head position policy with a similar recruitment target. After collection of in-hospital clinical and management data and 7-day outcomes, central trained blinded assessors will conduct a telephone disability assessment with the modified Rankin Scale at 90 days. The primary outcome for analysis is a shift (defined as improvement) in death or disability on this scale. For a cluster size of 60 patients with AIS per intervention and with various assumptions including an intracluster correlation coefficient of 0.03, a sample size of 16,800 patients at 140 centres will provide 90 % power (α 0.05) to detect at least a 16 % relative improvement (shift) in an ordinal logistic regression analysis of the primary outcome. The treatment effect will also be assessed in all patients with ICH who are recruited during each treatment study period. Discussion HeadPoST is a large international clinical trial in which we will rigorously evaluate the effects of different head positioning in patients with acute stroke. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02162017 (date of registration: 27 April 2014); ANZCTR identifier: ACTRN12614000483651 (date of registration: 9 May 2014). Protocol version and date: version 2.2, 19 June 2014

Error Rates, Decisive Outcomes and Publication Bias with Several Inferential Methods

Correction to this article published Hopkins, W.G. & Batterham, A.M. Sports Med (2016) 46: 923. doi:10.1007/s40279-016-0530-

Physics of Neutron Star Crusts

The physics of neutron star crusts is vast, involving many different research fields, from nuclear and condensed matter physics to general relativity. This review summarizes the progress, which has been achieved over the last few years, in modeling neutron star crusts, both at the microscopic and macroscopic levels. The confrontation of these theoretical models with observations is also briefly discussed.Comment: 182 pages, published version available at <http://www.livingreviews.org/lrr-2008-10

Feasibility and results of a randomised pilot-study of pre-discharge occupational therapy home visits

BACKGROUND: Pre-discharge home visits aim to maximise independence in the community. These visits involve assessment of a person in their own home prior to discharge from hospital, typically by an occupational therapist. The therapist may provide equipment, adapt the home environment and/or provide education. The aims of this study were to investigate the feasibility of a randomised controlled trial in a clinical setting and the effect of pre-discharge home visits on functional performance in older people undergoing rehabilitation. METHODS: Ten patients participating in an inpatient rehabilitation program were randomly assigned to receive either a pre-discharge home visit (intervention), or standard practice in-hospital assessment and education (control), both conducted by an occupational therapist. The pre-discharge home visit involved assessment of the older person's function and environment, and education, and took an average of 1.5 hours. The hospital-based interview took an average of 40 minutes. Outcome data were collected by a blinded assessor at 0, 2, 4, 8 and 12 weeks. Outcomes included performance of activities of daily living, reintegration to community living, quality of life, readmission and fall rates. RESULTS: Recruitment of 10 participants was slow and took three months. Observed performance of functional abilities did not differ between groups due to the small sample size. Difference in activities of daily living participation, as recorded by the Nottingham Extended Activities of Daily Living scale, was statistically significant but wide confidence intervals and low statistical power limit interpretation of results. CONCLUSION: Evaluation of pre-discharge home visits by occupational therapists in a rehabilitation setting is feasible, but a more effective recruitment strategy for a main study is favored by application of a multi-centre setting

New insights into perinatal testicular torsion

Perinatal testicular torsion is a relatively rare event that remains unrecognized in many patients or is suspected and treated accordingly only after an avoidable loss of time. The authors report their own experience with several patients, some of them quite atypical but instructive. Missed bilateral torsion is an issue, as are partial torsion, possible antenatal signs, and late presentation. These data are discussed together with the existing literature and may help shed new light on the natural course of testicular torsion and its treatment. The most important conclusion is that a much higher index of suspicion based on clinical findings is needed for timely detection of perinatal torsion. It is the authors’ opinion that immediate surgery is mandatory not only in suspected bilateral torsions but also in cases of possible unilateral torsions. There is no place for a more fatalistic “wait-and-see” approach. Whenever possible, even necrotic testes should not be removed during surgery because some endocrine function may be retained