Telemonitoring after discharge from hospital with heart failure: cost-effectiveness modelling of alternative service designs.

Objectives To estimate the cost-effectiveness of remote monitoring strategies versus usual care for adults recently discharged after a heart failure (HF) exacerbation. Design Decision analysis modelling of cost-effectiveness using secondary data sources. Setting Acute hospitals in the UK. Patients Patients recently discharged (within 28 days) after a HF exacerbation. Interventions Structured telephone support (STS) via human to machine (STS HM) interface, (2) STS via human to human (STS HH) contact and (3) home telemonitoring (TM), compared with (4) usual care. Main outcome measures The incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained by each strategy compared to the next most effective alternative and the probability of each strategy being cost-effective at varying willingness to pay per QALY gained. Results TM was the most cost-effective strategy in the scenario using these base case costs. Compared with usual care, TM had an estimated incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £11 873/QALY, whereas STS HH had an ICER of £228 035/QALY against TM. STS HM was dominated by usual care. Threshold analysis suggested that the monthly cost of TM has to be higher than £390 to have an ICER greater than £20 000/QALY against STS HH. Scenario analyses performed using higher costs of usual care, higher costs of STS HH and lower costs of TM do not substantially change the conclusions. Conclusions Cost-effectiveness analyses suggest that TM was an optimal strategy in most scenarios, but there is considerable uncertainty in relation to clear descriptions of the interventions and robust estimation of costs

A novel approach to improve cardiac performance: cardiac myosin activators

Decreased systolic function is a central factor in the pathogenesis of heart failure, yet there are no safe medical therapies to improve cardiac function in patients. Currently available inotropes, such as dobutamine and milrinone, increase cardiac contractility at the expense of increased intracellular concentrations of calcium and cAMP, contributing to increased heart rate, hypotension, arrhythmias, and mortality. These adverse effects are inextricably linked to their inotropic mechanism of action. A new class of pharmacologic agents, cardiac myosin activators, directly targets the kinetics of the myosin head. In vitro studies have demonstrated that these agents increase the rate of effective myosin cross-bridge formation, increasing the duration and amount of myocyte contraction, and inhibit non-productive consumption of ATP, potentially improving myocyte energy utilization, with no effect on intracellular calcium or cAMP. Animal models have shown that this novel mechanism increases the systolic ejection time, resulting in improved stroke volume, fractional shortening, and hemodynamics with no effect on myocardial oxygen demand, culminating in significant increases in cardiac efficiency. A first-in-human study in healthy volunteers with the lead cardiac myosin activator, CK-1827452, as well as preliminary results from a study in patients with stable chronic heart failure, have extended these findings to humans, demonstrating significant increases in systolic ejection time, fractional shortening, stroke volume, and cardiac output. These studies suggest that cardiac myosin activators offer the promise of a safe and effective treatment for heart failure. A program of clinical studies are being planned to test whether CK-1827452 will fulfill that promise

Using small molecules to facilitate exchange of bicarbonate and chloride anions across liposomal membranes

Bicarbonate is involved in a wide range of biological processes, which include respiration, regulation of intracellular pH and fertilization. In this study we use a combination of NMR spectroscopy and ion-selective electrode techniques to show that the natural product prodigiosin, a tripyrrolic molecule produced by microorganisms such as Streptomyces and Serratia, facilitates chloride/bicarbonate exchange (antiport) across liposomal membranes. Higher concentrations of simple synthetic molecules based on a 4,6-dihydroxyisophthalamide core are also shown to facilitate this antiport process. Although it is well known that proteins regulate Cl-/HCO3- exchange in cells, these results suggest that small molecules may also be able to regulate the concentration of these anions in biological systems

Doubling of World Population Unlikely

Most national and international agencies producing population projections explicitly avoid addressing the issue of uncertainty. Typically, they provide either a single projection or a set of low, medium, and high variants, and only very rarely do they give these projections a probabilistic interpretation. Probabilistic population projections have been developed for specific industrialized countries, mostly the United States, and are based largely on time-series analysis. On a global level, time-series analysis is not applicable because there is a lack of appropriate data, and for conceptual reasons such as the structural discontinuity caused by the demographic transition. Here we report on a new probabilistic approach that makes use of expert opinion on trends in fertility, and on the 90% uncertainty range of those trends in different parts of the world. We have used simulation techniques to derive probability distributions of population sizes and age structures for 13 regions of the world up to the year 2100. Among other things, there is a probability of two-thirds that the world's population will not double in the twenty-first century

Reader and author gender and genre in Goodreads

This is an accepted manuscript of an article published by SAGE Publishing in Journal of Librarianship & Information Science on 01/05/2017, available online: https://doi.org/10.1177/0961000617709061 The accepted version of the publication may differ from the final published version.There are known gender differences in book preferences in terms of both genre and author gender but their extent and causes are not well understood. It is unclear whether reader preferences for author genders occur within any or all genres and whether readers evaluate books differently based on author genders within specific genres. This article exploits a major source of informal book reviews, the Goodreads.com website, to assess the influence of reader and author genders on book evaluations within genres. It uses a quantitative analysis of 201,560 books and their reviews, focusing on the top 50 user-specified genres. The results show strong gender differences in the ratings given by reviewers to books within genres, such as female reviewers rating contemporary romance more highly, with males preferring short stories. For most common book genres, reviewers give higher ratings to books authored by their own gender, confirming that gender bias is not confined to the literary elite. The main exception is the comic book, for which male reviewers prefer female authors, despite their scarcity. A word frequency analysis suggested that authors wrote, and reviewers valued, gendered aspects of books within a genre. For example, relationships and romance were disproportionately mentioned by women in mystery and fantasy novels. These results show that, perhaps for the first time, it is possible to get large scale evidence about the reception of books by typical readers, if they post reviews online

The relationship of myocardial contraction and electrical excitation—the correlation between scintigraphic phase image analysis and electrophysiologic mapping

Phase imaging derived from equilibrium radionuclide angiography presents the ventricular contraction sequence. It has been widely but only indirectly correlated with the sequence of electrical myocardial activation. We sought to determine the specific relationship between the sequence of phase progression and the sequence of myocardial activation, contraction and conduction, in order to document a noninvasive method that could monitor both. In 7 normal and 9 infarcted dogs, the sequence of phase angle was correlated with the epicardial activation map in 126 episodes of sinus rhythm and pacing from three ventricular sites. In each episode, the site of earliest phase angle was identical to the focus of initial epicardial activation. Similarly, the serial contraction pattern by phase image analysis matched the electrical epicardial activation sequence completely or demonstrated good agreement in approximately 85% of pacing episodes, without differences between normal or infarct groups. A noninvasive method to accurately determine the sequence of contraction may serve as a surrogate for the associated electrical activation sequence or be applied to identify their differences

Evaluation and Recommendations on Good Clinical Laboratory Practice Guidelines for Phase I–III Clinical Trials

Marcella Sarzotti-Kelsoe and colleagues harmonize various approaches to Good Clinical Laboratory Practice for clinical trials into a single set of recommendations

Decorrelation and efficient coding by retinal ganglion cells

An influential theory of visual processing asserts that retinal center-surround receptive fields remove spatial correlations in the visual world, producing ganglion cell spike trains that are less redundant than the corresponding image pixels. For bright, high-contrast images, this decorrelation would enhance coding efficiency in optic nerve fibers of limited capacity. We tested the central prediction of the theory and found that the spike trains of retinal ganglion cells were indeed decorrelated compared with the visual input. However, most of the decorrelation was accomplished not by the receptive fields, but by nonlinear processing in the retina. We found that a steep response threshold enhanced efficient coding by noisy spike trains and that the effect of this nonlinearity was near optimal in both salamander and macaque retina. These results offer an explanation for the sparseness of retinal spike trains and highlight the importance of treating the full nonlinear character of neural codes

Leaders, leadership and future primary care clinical research

Background: A strong and self confident primary care workforce can deliver the highest quality care and outcomes equitably and cost effectively. To meet the increasing demands being made of it, primary care needs its own thriving research culture and knowledge base. Methods: Review of recent developments supporting primary care clinical research. Results: Primary care research has benefited from a small group of passionate leaders and significant investment in recent decades in some countries. Emerging from this has been innovation in research design and focus, although less is known of the effect on research output. Conclusion: Primary care research is now well placed to lead a broad re-vitalisation of academic medicine, answering questions of relevance to practitioners, patients, communities and Government. Key areas for future primary care research leaders to focus on include exposing undergraduates early to primary care research, integrating this early exposure with doctoral and postdoctoral research career support, further expanding cross disciplinary approaches, and developing useful measures of output for future primary care research investment