Heartbeat of the Southern Oscillation explains ENSO climatic resonances

This is the final version. Available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) nonlinear oscillator phenomenon has a far reaching ~ influence on the climate and human activities. The up to 10 year quasi-period cycle of the El Nino and ~ subsequent La Nina is known to be dominated in the tropics by nonlinear physical interaction of wind with ~ the equatorial waveguide in the Pacific. Long-term cyclic phenomena do not feature in the current theory of the ENSO process. We update the theory by assessing low (>10 years) and high (<10 years) frequency coupling using evidence across tropical, extratropical, and Pacific basin scales. We analyze observations and model simulations with a highly accurate method called Dominant Frequency State Analysis (DFSA) to provide evidence of stable ENSO features. The observational data sets of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), North Pacific Index Anomaly, and ENSO Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly, as well as a theoretical model all confirm the existence of long-term and short-term climatic cycles of the ENSO process with resonance frequencies of {2.5, 3.8, 5, 12–14, 61–75, 180} years. This fundamental result shows long-term and short-term signal coupling with mode locking across the dominant ENSO dynamics. These dominant oscillation frequency dynamics, defined as ENSO frequency states, contain a stable attractor with three frequencies in resonance allowing us to coin the term Heartbeat of the Southern Oscillation due to its characteristic shape. We predict future ENSO states based on a stable hysteresis scenario of short-term and long-term ENSO oscillations over the next century.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)Plymouth Marine Laboratory (PML

Ocean net heat flux influences seasonal to interannual patterns of plankton abundance

This is the final version. Available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.Changes in the net heat flux (NHF) into the ocean have profound impacts on global climate. We analyse a long-term plankton time-series and show that the NHF is a critical indicator of ecosystem dynamics. We show that phytoplankton abundance and diversity patterns are tightly bounded by the switches between negative and positive NHF over an annual cycle. Zooplankton increase before the transition to positive NHF in the spring but are constrained by the negative NHF switch in autumn. By contrast bacterial diversity is decoupled from either NHF switch, but is inversely correlated (r = 20.920) with the magnitude of the NHF. We show that the NHF is a robust mechanistic tool for predicting climate change indicators such as spring phytoplankton bloom timing and length of the growing season.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)European Union: 7th Framework ProgrammeINTERREG IV

Ocean Net Heat Flux Influences Seasonal to Interannual Patterns of Plankton Abundance

Changes in the net heat flux (NHF) into the ocean have profound impacts on global climate. We analyse a long-term plankton time-series and show that the NHF is a critical indicator of ecosystem dynamics. We show that phytoplankton abundance and diversity patterns are tightly bounded by the switches between negative and positive NHF over an annual cycle. Zooplankton increase before the transition to positive NHF in the spring but are constrained by the negative NHF switch in autumn. By contrast bacterial diversity is decoupled from either NHF switch, but is inversely correlated (r=-0.920) with the magnitude of the NHF. We show that the NHF is a robust mechanistic tool for predicting climate change indicators such as spring phytoplankton bloom timing and length of the growing season

Centre selection for clinical trials and the generalisability of results: a mixed methods study.

BACKGROUND: The rationale for centre selection in randomised controlled trials (RCTs) is often unclear but may have important implications for the generalisability of trial results. The aims of this study were to evaluate the factors which currently influence centre selection in RCTs and consider how generalisability considerations inform current and optimal practice. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Mixed methods approach consisting of a systematic review and meta-summary of centre selection criteria reported in RCT protocols funded by the UK National Institute of Health Research (NIHR) initiated between January 2005-January 2012; and an online survey on the topic of current and optimal centre selection, distributed to professionals in the 48 UK Clinical Trials Units and 10 NIHR Research Design Services. The survey design was informed by the systematic review and by two focus groups conducted with trialists at the Birmingham Centre for Clinical Trials. 129 trial protocols were included in the systematic review, with a total target sample size in excess of 317,000 participants. The meta-summary identified 53 unique centre selection criteria. 78 protocols (60%) provided at least one criterion for centre selection, but only 31 (24%) protocols explicitly acknowledged generalisability. This is consistent with the survey findings (n = 70), where less than a third of participants reported generalisability as a key driver of centre selection in current practice. This contrasts with trialists' views on optimal practice, where generalisability in terms of clinical practice, population characteristics and economic results were prime considerations for 60% (n = 42), 57% (n = 40) and 46% (n = 32) of respondents, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Centres are rarely enrolled in RCTs with an explicit view to external validity, although trialists acknowledge that incorporating generalisability in centre selection should ideally be more prominent. There is a need to operationalize 'generalisability' and incorporate it at the design stage of RCTs so that results are readily transferable to 'real world' practice

A Systematic Review of Mosquito Coils and Passive Emanators: Defining Recommendations for Spatial Repellency Testing Methodologies.

Mosquito coils, vaporizer mats and emanators confer protection against mosquito bites through the spatial action of emanated vapor or airborne pyrethroid particles. These products dominate the pest control market; therefore, it is vital to characterize mosquito responses elicited by the chemical actives and their potential for disease prevention. The aim of this review was to determine effects of mosquito coils and emanators on mosquito responses that reduce human-vector contact and to propose scientific consensus on terminologies and methodologies used for evaluation of product formats that could contain spatial chemical actives, including indoor residual spraying (IRS), long lasting insecticide treated nets (LLINs) and insecticide treated materials (ITMs). PubMed, (National Centre for Biotechnology Information (NCBI), U.S. National Library of Medicine, NIH), MEDLINE, LILAC, Cochrane library, IBECS and Armed Forces Pest Management Board Literature Retrieval System search engines were used to identify studies of pyrethroid based coils and emanators with key-words "Mosquito coils" "Mosquito emanators" and "Spatial repellents". It was concluded that there is need to improve statistical reporting of studies, and reach consensus in the methodologies and terminologies used through standardized testing guidelines. Despite differing evaluation methodologies, data showed that coils and emanators induce mortality, deterrence, repellency as well as reduce the ability of mosquitoes to feed on humans. Available data on efficacy outdoors, dose-response relationships and effective distance of coils and emanators is inadequate for developing a target product profile (TPP), which will be required for such chemicals before optimized implementation can occur for maximum benefits in disease control

ExpressionPlot: a web-based framework for analysis of RNA-Seq and microarray gene expression data

RNA-Seq and microarray platforms have emerged as important tools for detecting changes in gene expression and RNA processing in biological samples. We present ExpressionPlot, a software package consisting of a default back end, which prepares raw sequencing or Affymetrix microarray data, and a web-based front end, which offers a biologically centered interface to browse, visualize, and compare different data sets. Download and installation instructions, a user's manual, discussion group, and a prototype are available at http://expressionplot.com/ webcite.ALS Therapy Allianc

A Nonparametric Mean-Variance Smoothing Method to Assess Arabidopsis Cold Stress Transcriptional Regulator CBF2 Overexpression Microarray Data

Microarray is a powerful tool for genome-wide gene expression analysis. In microarray expression data, often mean and variance have certain relationships. We present a non-parametric mean-variance smoothing method (NPMVS) to analyze differentially expressed genes. In this method, a nonlinear smoothing curve is fitted to estimate the relationship between mean and variance. Inference is then made upon shrinkage estimation of posterior means assuming variances are known. Different methods have been applied to simulated datasets, in which a variety of mean and variance relationships were imposed. The simulation study showed that NPMVS outperformed the other two popular shrinkage estimation methods in some mean-variance relationships; and NPMVS was competitive with the two methods in other relationships. A real biological dataset, in which a cold stress transcription factor gene, CBF2, was overexpressed, has also been analyzed with the three methods. Gene ontology and cis-element analysis showed that NPMVS identified more cold and stress responsive genes than the other two methods did. The good performance of NPMVS is mainly due to its shrinkage estimation for both means and variances. In addition, NPMVS exploits a non-parametric regression between mean and variance, instead of assuming a specific parametric relationship between mean and variance. The source code written in R is available from the authors on request

Pharmacological levels of withaferin A (Withania somnifera) trigger clinically relevant anticancer effects specific to triple negative breast cancer cells

Withaferin A (WA) isolated from Withania somnifera (Ashwagandha) has recently become an attractive phytochemical under investigation in various preclinical studies for treatment of different cancer types. In the present study, a comparative pathway-based transcriptome analysis was applied in epithelial-like MCF-7 and triple negative mesenchymal MDA-MB-231 breast cancer cells exposed to different concentrations of WA which can be detected systemically in in vivo experiments. Whereas WA treatment demonstrated attenuation of multiple cancer hallmarks, the withanolide analogue Withanone (WN) did not exert any of the described effects at comparable concentrations. Pathway enrichment analysis revealed that WA targets specific cancer processes related to cell death, cell cycle and proliferation, which could be functionally validated by flow cytometry and real-time cell proliferation assays. WA also strongly decreased MDA-MB-231 invasion as determined by single-cell collagen invasion assay. This was further supported by decreased gene expression of extracellular matrix-degrading proteases (uPA, PLAT, ADAM8), cell adhesion molecules (integrins, laminins), pro-inflammatory mediators of the metastasis-promoting tumor microenvironment (TNFSF12, IL6, ANGPTL2, CSF1R) and concomitant increased expression of the validated breast cancer metastasis suppressor gene (BRMS1). In line with the transcriptional changes, nanomolar concentrations of WA significantly decreased protein levels and corresponding activity of uPA in MDA-MB-231 cell supernatant, further supporting its anti-metastatic properties. Finally, hierarchical clustering analysis of 84 chromatin writer-reader-eraser enzymes revealed that WA treatment of invasive mesenchymal MDA-MB-231 cells reprogrammed their transcription levels more similarly towards the pattern observed in non-invasive MCF-7 cells. In conclusion, taking into account that sub-cytotoxic concentrations of WA target multiple metastatic effectors in therapy-resistant triple negative breast cancer, WA-based therapeutic strategies targeting the uPA pathway hold promise for further (pre)clinical development to defeat aggressive metastatic breast cancer

Identification of SERPINA1 as single marker for papillary thyroid carcinoma through microarray meta analysis and quantification of its discriminatory power in independent validation

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Several DNA microarray based expression signatures for the different clinically relevant thyroid tumor entities have been described over the past few years. However, reproducibility of these signatures is generally low, mainly due to study biases, small sample sizes and the highly multivariate nature of microarrays. While there are new technologies available for a more accurate high throughput expression analysis, we show that there is still a lot of information to be gained from data deposited in public microarray databases. In this study we were aiming (1) to identify potential markers for papillary thyroid carcinomas through meta analysis of public microarray data and (2) to confirm these markers in an independent dataset using an independent technology.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We adopted a meta analysis approach for four publicly available microarray datasets on papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) nodules versus nodular goitre (NG) from N2-frozen tissue. The methodology included merging of datasets, bias removal using distance weighted discrimination (DWD), feature selection/inference statistics, classification/crossvalidation and gene set enrichment analysis (GSEA). External Validation was performed on an independent dataset using an independent technology, quantitative RT-PCR (RT-qPCR) in our laboratory.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>From meta analysis we identified one gene (SERPINA1) which identifies papillary thyroid carcinoma against benign nodules with 99% accuracy (n = 99, sensitivity = 0.98, specificity = 1, PPV = 1, NPV = 0.98). In the independent validation data, which included not only PTC and NG, but all major histological thyroid entities plus a few variants, SERPINA1 was again markedly up regulated (36-fold, p = 1:3*10^-10) in PTC and identification of papillary carcinoma was possible with 93% accuracy (n = 82, sensitivity = 1, specificity = 0.90, PPV = 0.76, NPV = 1). We also show that the extracellular matrix pathway is strongly activated in the meta analysis data, suggesting an important role of tumor-stroma interaction in the carcinogenesis of papillary thyroid carcinoma.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>We show that valuable new information can be gained from meta analysis of existing microarray data deposited in public repositories. While single microarray studies rarely exhibit a sample number which allows robust feature selection, this can be achieved by combining published data using DWD. This approach is not only efficient, but also very cost-effective. Independent validation shows the validity of the results from this meta analysis and confirms SERPINA1 as a potent mRNA marker for PTC in a total (meta analysis plus validation) of 181 samples.</p

BATS: a Bayesian user-friendly software for Analyzing Time Series microarray experiments

BATS is a user-friendly software for Bayesian Analysis of Time Series microarray experiments based on the novel, truly functional and fully Bayesian approach proposed in Angelini et at. (2006). The software is specifically designed for time series data. It allows an user to automatically identify and rank differentially expressed genes and to estimate their expression profiles. BATS successfully manages various technical difficulties which arise in microarray time-course experiments, such as a small number of observations, non-uniform sampling intervals, and presence of missing or multiple data. BATS can carry out analysis with both simulated and real experimental data. It also handles data from different platforms. 1 Availability: BATS is written in Matlab and executable in Windows (Macintosh and Linux version are currently under development). It is freely available upon request from the authors.