BED Estimates of HIV Incidence: Resolving the Differences, Making Things Simpler

Objective: Develop a simple method for optimal estimation of HIV incidence using the BED capture enzyme immunoassay. Design: Use existing BED data to estimate mean recency duration, false recency rates and HIV incidence with reference to a fixed time period, T. Methods: Compare BED and cohort estimates of incidence referring to identical time frames. Generalize this approach to suggest a method for estimating HIV incidence from any cross-sectional survey. Results: Follow-up and BED analyses of the same, initially HIV negative, cases followed over the same set time period T, produce estimates of the same HIV incidence, permitting the estimation of the BED mean recency period for cases who have been HIV positive for less than T. Follow-up of HIV positive cases over T, similarly, provides estimates of the false-recent rate appropriate for T. Knowledge of these two parameters for a given population allows the estimation of HIV incidence during T by applying the BED method to samples from cross-sectional surveys. An algorithm is derived for providing these estimates, adjusted for the false-recent rate. The resulting estimator is identical to one derived independently using a more formal mathematical analysis. Adjustments improve the accuracy of HIV incidence estimates. Negative incidence estimates result from the use of inappropriate estimates of the false-recent rate and/or from sampling error, not from any error in the adjustment procedure

Dual Testing Algorithm of BED-CEIA and AxSYM Avidity Index Assays Performs Best in Identifying Recent HIV Infection in a Sample of Rwandan Sex Workers

To assess the performance of BED-CEIA (BED) and AxSYM Avidity Index (Ax-AI) assays in estimating HIV incidence among female sex workers (FSW) in Kigali, Rwanda. Eight hundred FSW of unknown HIV status were HIV tested; HIV-positive women had BED and Ax-AI testing at baseline and ≥12 months later to estimate assay false-recent rates (FRR). STARHS-based HIV incidence was estimated using the McWalter/Welte formula, and adjusted with locally derived FRR and CD4 results. HIV incidence and local assay window periods were estimated from a prospective cohort of FSW. At baseline, 190 HIV-positive women were BED and Ax-AI tested; 23 were classified as recent infection (RI). Assay FRR with 95% confidence intervals were: 3.6% (1.2-8.1) (BED); 10.6% (6.1-17.0) (Ax-AI); and 2.1% (0.4-6.1) (BED/Ax-AI combined). After FRR-adjustment, incidence estimates by BED, Ax-AI, and BED/Ax-AI were: 5.5/100 person-years (95% CI 2.2-8.7); 7.7 (3.2-12.3); and 4.4 (1.4-7.3). After CD4-adjustment, BED, Ax-AI, and BED/Ax-AI incidence estimates were: 5.6 (2.6-8.6); 9.7 (5.0-14.4); and 4.7 (2.0-7.5). HIV incidence rates in the first and second 6 months of the cohort were 4.6 (1.6-7.7) and 2.2 (0.1-4.4). Adjusted incidence estimates by BED/Ax-AI combined were similar to incidence in the first 6 months of the cohort. Furthermore, false-recent rate on the combined BED/Ax-AI algorithm was low and substantially lower than for either assay alone. Improved assay specificity with time since seroconversion suggests that specificity would be higher in population-based testing where more individuals have long-term infectio

Assessment of BED HIV-1 Incidence Assay in Seroconverter Cohorts: Effect of Individuals with Long-Term Infection and Importance of Stable Incidence

BACKGROUND: Performance of the BED assay in estimating HIV-1 incidence has previously been evaluated by using longitudinal specimens from persons with incident HIV infections, but questions remain about its accuracy. We sought to assess its performance in three longitudinal cohorts from Thailand where HIV-1 CRF01_AE and subtype B' dominate the epidemic. DESIGN: BED testing was conducted in two longitudinal cohorts with only incident infections (a military conscript cohort and an injection drug user cohort) and in one longitudinal cohort (an HIV-1 vaccine efficacy trial cohort) that also included long-term infections. METHODS: Incidence estimates were generated conventionally (based on the number of annual serocoversions) and by using BED test results in the three cohorts. Adjusted incidence was calculated where appropriate. RESULTS: For each longitudinal cohort the BED incidence estimates and the conventional incidence estimates were similar when only newly infected persons were tested, whether infected with CRF01_AE or subtype B'. When the analysis included persons with long-term infections (to mimic a true cross-sectional cohort), BED incidence estimates were higher, although not significantly, than the conventional incidence estimates. After adjustment, the BED incidence estimates were closer to the conventional incidence estimates. When the conventional incidence varied over time, as in the early phase of the injection drug user cohort, the difference between the two estimates increased, but not significantly. CONCLUSIONS: Evaluation of the performance of incidence assays requires the inclusion of a substantial number of cohort-derived specimens from individuals with long-term HIV infection and, ideally, the use of cohorts in which incidence remained stable. Appropriate adjustments of the BED incidence estimates generate estimates similar to those generated conventionally

HIV Incidence in Rural South Africa: Comparison of Estimates from Longitudinal Surveillance and Cross-Sectional cBED Assay Testing

The original publication is available at http:/www.plosone.orgBackground: The BED IgG-Capture Enzyme Immunoassay (cBED assay), a test of recent HIV infection, has been used to estimate HIV incidence in cross-sectional HIV surveys. However, there has been concern that the assay overestimates HIV incidence to an unknown extent because it falsely classifies some individuals with non-recent HIV infections as recently infected. We used data from a longitudinal HIV surveillance in rural South Africa to measure the fraction of people with nonrecent HIV infection who are falsely classified as recently HIV-infected by the cBED assay (the long-term false-positive ratio (FPR)) and compared cBED assay-based HIV incidence estimates to longitudinally measured HIV incidence. Methodology/Principal Findings: We measured the long-term FPR in individuals with two positive HIV tests (in the HIV surveillance, 2003-2006) more than 306 days apart (sample size n = 1,065). We implemented four different formulae to calculate HIV incidence using cBED assay testing (n = 11,755) and obtained confidence intervals (CIs) by directly calculating the central 95th percentile of incidence values. We observed 4,869 individuals over 7,685 person-years for longitudinal HIV incidence estimation. The long-term FPR was 0.0169 (95% CI 0.0100-0.0266). Using this FPR, the cross-sectional cBED-based HIV incidence estimates (per 100 people per year) varied between 3.03 (95% CI 2.44-3.63) and 3.19 (95% CI 2.57-3.82), depending on the incidence formula. Using a long-term FPR of 0.0560 based on previous studies, HIV incidence estimates varied between 0.65 (95% CI 0.00-1.32) and 0.71 (95% CI 0.00-1.43). The longitudinally measured HIV incidence was 3.09 per 100 people per year (95% CI 2.69-3.52), after adjustment to the sex-age distribution of the sample used in cBED assay-based estimation. Conclusions/Significance: In a rural community in South Africa with high HIV prevalence, the long-term FPR of the cBED assay is substantially lower than previous estimates. The cBED assay performs well in HIV incidence estimation if the locally measured long-term FPR is used, but significantly underestimates incidence when a FPR estimate based on previous studies in other settings is used. © 2008 Bärnighausen et al.Publishers' Versio

Errors in ‘BED’-Derived Estimates of HIV Incidence Will Vary by Place, Time and Age

The BED Capture Enzyme Immunoassay, believed to distinguish recent HIV infections, is being used to estimate HIV incidence, although an important property of the test--how specificity changes with time since infection--has not been not measured.We construct hypothetical scenarios for the performance of BED test, consistent with current knowledge, and explore how this could influence errors in BED estimates of incidence using a mathematical model of six African countries. The model is also used to determine the conditions and the sample sizes required for the BED test to reliably detect trends in HIV incidence.If the chance of misclassification by BED increases with time since infection, the overall proportion of individuals misclassified could vary widely between countries, over time, and across age-groups, in a manner determined by the historic course of the epidemic and the age-pattern of incidence. Under some circumstances, changes in BED estimates over time can approximately track actual changes in incidence, but large sample sizes (50,000+) will be required for recorded changes to be statistically significant.The relationship between BED test specificity and time since infection has not been fully measured, but, if it decreases, errors in estimates of incidence could vary by place, time and age-group. This means that post-assay adjustment procedures using parameters from different populations or at different times may not be valid. Further research is urgently needed into the properties of the BED test, and the rate of misclassification in a wide range of populations

Diagnostic performance of line-immunoassay based algorithms for incident HIV-1 infection

Background: Serologic testing algorithms for recent HIV seroconversion (STARHS) provide important information for HIV surveillance. We have previously demonstrated that a patient's antibody reaction pattern in a confirmatory line immunoassay (INNO-LIA™ HIV I/II Score) provides information on the duration of infection, which is unaffected by clinical, immunological and viral variables. In this report we have set out to determine the diagnostic performance of Inno-Lia algorithms for identifying incident infections in patients with known duration of infection and evaluated the algorithms in annual cohorts of HIV notifications. Methods: Diagnostic sensitivity was determined in 527 treatment-naive patients infected for up to 12 months. Specificity was determined in 740 patients infected for longer than 12 months. Plasma was tested by Inno-Lia and classified as either incident (< = 12 m) or older infection by 26 different algorithms. Incident infection rates (IIR) were calculated based on diagnostic sensitivity and specificity of each algorithm and the rule that the total of incident results is the sum of true-incident and false-incident results, which can be calculated by means of the pre-determined sensitivity and specificity. Results: The 10 best algorithms had a mean raw sensitivity of 59.4% and a mean specificity of 95.1%. Adjustment for overrepresentation of patients in the first quarter year of infection further reduced the sensitivity. In the preferred model, the mean adjusted sensitivity was 37.4%. Application of the 10 best algorithms to four annual cohorts of HIV-1 notifications totalling 2'595 patients yielded a mean IIR of 0.35 in 2005/6 (baseline) and of 0.45, 0.42 and 0.35 in 2008, 2009 and 2010, respectively. The increase between baseline and 2008 and the ensuing decreases were highly significant. Other adjustment models yielded different absolute IIR, although the relative changes between the cohorts were identical for all models Conclusions: The method can be used for comparing IIR in annual cohorts of HIV notifications. The use of several different algorithms in combination, each with its own sensitivity and specificity to detect incident infection, is advisable as this reduces the impact of individual imperfections stemming primarily from relatively low sensitivities and sampling bias

Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) Strain ST398 Is Present in Midwestern U.S. Swine and Swine Workers

BACKGROUND: Recent research has demonstrated that many swine and swine farmers in the Netherlands and Canada are colonized with MRSA. However, no studies to date have investigated carriage of MRSA among swine and swine farmers in the United States (U.S.). METHODS: We sampled the nares of 299 swine and 20 workers from two different production systems in Iowa and Illinois, comprising approximately 87,000 live animals. MRSA isolates were typed by pulsed field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) using SmaI and EagI restriction enzymes, and by multi locus sequence typing (MLST). PCR was used to determine SCCmec type and presence of the pvl gene. RESULTS: In this pilot study, overall MRSA prevalence in swine was 49% (147/299) and 45% (9/20) in workers. The prevalence of MRSA carriage among production system A's swine varied by age, ranging from 36% (11/30) in adult swine to 100% (60/60) of animals aged 9 and 12 weeks. The prevalence among production system A's workers was 64% (9/14). MRSA was not isolated from production system B's swine or workers. Isolates examined were not typeable by PFGE when SmaI was used, but digestion with EagI revealed that the isolates were clonal and were not related to common human types in Iowa (USA100, USA300, and USA400). MLST documented that the isolates were ST398. CONCLUSIONS: These results show that colonization of swine by MRSA was very common on one swine production system in the midwestern U.S., suggesting that agricultural animals could become an important reservoir for this bacterium. MRSA strain ST398 was the only strain documented on this farm. Further studies are examining carriage rates on additional farms

Estimation of HIV-1 incidence among five focal populations in Dehong, Yunnan: a hard hit area along a major drug trafficking route

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Since 1989 when the first 146 HIV positives in China were identified, Dehong Prefecture had been one of the areas hardest-hit by HIV in China. The local and national governments have put substantial financial resources into tackling the HIV epidemic in Dehong from 2004. The objective of this study was to track dynamic changes in HIV-1 prevalence and incidence among five focal populations in Dehong and to assess the impact of HIV prevention and control efforts.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Consecutive cross-sectional surveys conducted in five focal populations between 2004 and 2008. Specimens seropositive for HIV were tested with the BED IgG capture enzyme immunoassay to identify recent seroconversions (median, 155 days) using normalized optical density of 0.8 and adjustments.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>From 2004 to 2008, estimated annual HIV incidence among injecting drug users (IDUs) decreased significantly [from 15.0% (95% CI = 11.4%-18.5%) in 2004 to 4.3% (95% CI = 2.4%-6.2%) in 2008; trend test P < 0.0001]. The incidence among other focal populations, such as HIV discordant couples (varying from 5.5% to 4.7%), female sex workers (varying from 1.4% to 1.3%), pregnant women (0.1%), and pre-marital couples (0.2 to 0.1%) remained stable. Overall, the proportion of recent HIV-1 infections was higher among females than males (P < 0.0001).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The HIV epidemic in Dehong continued to expand during a five-year period but at a slowing rate among IDUs, and HIV incidence remains high among IDUs and discordant couples. Intensive prevention measures should target sub-groups at highest risk to further slow the epidemic and control the migration of HIV to other areas of China, and multivariate analysis is needed to explore which measures are more effective for different populations.</p

Surveillance of Transmitted Antiretroviral Drug Resistance among HIV-1 Infected Women Attending Antenatal Clinics in Chitungwiza, Zimbabwe

The rapid scale-up of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) and use of single dose Nevirapine (SD NVP) for prevention of mother-to-child transmission (pMTCT) have raised fears about the emergence of resistance to the first line antiretroviral drug regimens. A cross-sectional study was conducted to determine the prevalence of primary drug resistance (PDR) in a cohort of young (<25 yrs) HAART-naïve HIV pregnant women attending antenatal clinics in Chitungwiza, Zimbabwe. Whole blood was collected in EDTA for CD4 counts, viral load, serological estimation of duration of infection using the BED Calypte assay and genotyping for drug resistance. Four hundred and seventy-one women, mean age 21 years; SD: 2.1 were enrolled into the study between 2006 and 2007. Their median CD4 count was 371cells/µL; IQR: 255–511 cells/µL. Two hundred and thirty-six samples were genotyped for drug resistance. Based on the BED assay, 27% were recently infected (RI) whilst 73% had long-term infection (LTI). Median CD4 count was higher (p<0.05) in RI than in women with LTI. Only 2 women had drug resistance mutations; protease I85V and reverse transcriptase Y181C. Prevalence of PDR in Chitungwiza, 4 years after commencement of the national ART program remained below WHO threshold limit (5%). Frequency of recent infection BED testing is consistent with high HIV acquisition during pregnancy. With the scale-up of long-term ART programs, maintenance of proper prescribing practices, continuous monitoring of patients and reinforcement of adherence may prevent the acquisition and transmission of PDR