Optimal design of rain gauge network in the Middle Yarra River catchment, Australia

Rainfall data are a fundamental input for effective planning, designing and operating of water resources projects. A well-designed rain gauge network is capable of providing accurate estimates of necessary areal average and/or point rainfall estimates at any desired ungauged location in a catchment. Increasing network density with additional rain gauge stations has been the main underlying criterion in the past to reduce error and uncertainty in rainfall estimates. However, installing and operation of additional stations in a network involves large cost and manpower. Hence, the objective of this study is to design an optimal rain gauge network in the Middle Yarra River catchment in Victoria, Australia. The optimal positioning of additional stations as well as optimally relocating of existing redundant stations using the kriging-based geostatistical approach was undertaken in this study. Reduction of kriging error was considered as an indicator for optimal spatial positioning of the stations. Daily rainfall records of 1997 (an El Niño year) and 2010 (a La Niña year) were used for the analysis. Ordinary kriging was applied for rainfall data interpolation to estimate the kriging error for the network. The results indicate that significant reduction in the kriging error can be achieved by the optimal spatial positioning of the additional as well as redundant stations. Thus, the obtained optimal rain gauge network is expected to be appropriate for providing high quality rainfall estimates over the catchment. The concept proposed in this study for optimal rain gauge network design through combined use of additional and redundant stations together is equally applicable to any other catchment

Lithofacies uncertainty modeling in a siliciclastic reservoir setting by incorporating geological contacts and seismic information

Deterministic modeling lonely provides a unique boundary layout, depending on the geological interpretation or interpolation from the hard available data. Changing the interpreter’s attitude or interpolation parameters leads to displacing the location of these borders. In contrary, probabilistic modeling of geological domains such as lithofacies is a critical aspect to providing information to take proper decision in the case of evaluation of oil reservoirs parameters, that is, applicable for quantification of uncertainty along the boundaries. These stochastic modeling manifests itself dramatically beyond this occasion. Conventional approaches of probabilistic modeling (object and pixel-based) mostly suffers from consideration of contact knowledge on the simulated domains. Plurigaussian simulation algorithm, in contrast, allows reproducing the complex transitions among the lithofacies domains and has found wide acceptance for modeling petroleum reservoirs. Stationary assumption for this framework has implications on the homogeneous characterization of the lithofacies. In this case, the proportion is assumed constant and the covariance function as a typical feature of spatial continuity depends only on the Euclidean distances between two points. But, whenever there exists a heterogeneity phenomenon in the region, this assumption does not urge model to generate the desired variability of the underlying proportion of facies over the domain. Geophysical attributes as a secondary variable in this place, plays an important role for generation of the realistic contact relationship between the simulated categories. In this paper, a hierarchical plurigaussian simulation approach is used to construct multiple realizations of lithofacies by incorporating the acoustic impedance as soft data through an oil reservoir in Iran.This research was funded by the National Elites Foundation of Iran in collaboration with research Institute Petroleum of Industry in Iran under the project number of 9265005

Geostatistical modeling and spatial distribution analysis of porosity and permeability in the Shurijeh-B reservoir of Khangiran gas field in Iran

The main objectives of this study are analysis of spatial behavior of the porosity and permeability, presenting direction of anisotropy for each variable and describing variation of these parameters in Shurijeh B gas reservoir in Khangiran gas field. Porosity well log data of 32 wells are available for performing this geostatistical analysis. A univariate statistical analysis is done on both porosity and permeability to provide a framework for geostatistical analysis and modeling. For spatial analysis of these parameters, the experimental semivariogram of each variable in different direction as well as their variogram map plotted to find out the direction of anisotropy and their geostatistical parameters such as range, sill, and nugget effect for later geostatistical work and finally for geostatistical modeling, two approaches kriging and Sequential Gaussian Simulation are used to get porosity and permeability maps through the entire reservoir. All of statistical and geostatistical analysis has been done using GSLIB and PETREL software. Maximum and minimum direction of continuity are found to be N75W and N15E, respectively. Geostatistical parameters of calculated semivariogram in this direction like range of 7000 m and nugget of 0.2 are used for modeling. Both kriging and SGS method used for modeling but kriging tends to smooth out estimates but on the other hand SGS method tends to show up details. Cross-validation also used to validate the generated modeling

Pattern Recognition in a Bimodal Aquifer Using the Normal-Score Ensemble Kalman Filter

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is now widely used in diverse disciplines to estimate model parameters and update model states by integrating observed data. The EnKF is known to perform optimally only for multi-Gaussian distributed states and parameters. A new approach, the normal-score EnKF (NS-EnKF), has been recently proposed to handle complex aquifers with non-Gaussian distributed parameters. In this work, we aim at investigating the capacity of the NS-EnKF to identify patterns in the spatial distribution of the model parameters (hydraulic conductivities) by assimilating dynamic observations in the absence of direct measurements of the parameters themselves. In some situations, hydraulic conductivity measurements (hard data) may not be available, which requires the estimation of conductivities from indirect observations, such as piezometric heads. We show how the NS-EnKF is capable of retrieving the bimodal nature of a synthetic aquifer solely from piezometric head data. By comparison with a more standard implementation of the EnKF, the NS-EnKF gives better results with regard to histogram preservation, uncertainty assessment, and transport predictions. © 2011 International Association for Mathematical Geosciences.The authors gratefully acknowledge the financial support by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation through project CGL2011-23295. The first author appreciates the financial aid from China Scholarship Council (CSC No. [2007]3020).Zhou, H.; Li, L.; Hendricks Franssen, H.; Gómez-Hernández, JJ. (2012). Pattern Recognition in a Bimodal Aquifer Using the Normal-Score Ensemble Kalman Filter. Mathematical Geosciences. 44(2):169-185. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11004-011-9372-3S169185442Arulampalam MS, Maskell S, Gordon N, Clapp T (2002) A tutorial on particle filters for online nonlinear/non-Gaussian Bayesian tracking. 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SPE J 11(4):431–442Wen X, Chen W (2007) Some practical issues on real time reservoir updating using ensemble Kalman filter. SPE J 12(2):156–166Zhou H, Gómez-Hernández JJ, Hendricks Franssen H-J, Li L (2011) An approach to handling non-gaussianity of parameters and state variables in ensemble Kalman filtering. Adv Water Resour 34(7):844–864Zinn B, Harvey C (2003) When good statistical models of aquifer heterogeneity go bad: a comparison of flow, dispersion, and mass transfer in connected and multivariate Gaussian hydraulic conductivity fields. Water Resour Res 39(3):105

Stochastic upscaling of hydrodynamic dispersion and retardation factor in a physically and chemically heterogeneous tropical soil

[EN] Stochastic upscaling of flow and reactive solute transport in a tropical soil is performed using real data collected in the laboratory. Upscaling of hydraulic conductivity, longitudinal hydrodynamic dispersion, and retardation factor were done using three different approaches of varying complexity. How uncertainty propagates after upscaling was also studied. The results show that upscaling must be taken into account if a good reproduction of the flow and transport behavior of a given soil is to be attained when modeled at larger than laboratory scales. The results also show that arrival time uncertainty was well reproduced after solute transport upscaling. This work represents a first demonstration of flow and reactive transport upscaling in a soil based on laboratory data. It also shows how simple upscaling methods can be incorporated into daily modeling practice using commercial flow and transport codes.The authors thank the financial support by the Brazilian National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq) (Project 401441/2014-8). The doctoral fellowship award to the first author by the Coordination of Improvement of Higher Level Personnel (CAPES) is acknowledged. The first author also thanks the international mobility grant awarded by CNPq, through the Sciences Without Borders program (Grant Number: 200597/2015-9). The international mobility grant awarded by Santander Mobility in cooperation with the University of Sao Paulo is also acknowledged. DHI-WASI is gratefully thanked for providing a FEFLOW license.Almeida De-Godoy, V.; Zuquette, L.; Gómez-Hernández, JJ. (2019). Stochastic upscaling of hydrodynamic dispersion and retardation factor in a physically and chemically heterogeneous tropical soil. 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The Influence of Meteorology on the Spread of Influenza: Survival Analysis of an Equine Influenza (A/H3N8) Outbreak

The influences of relative humidity and ambient temperature on the transmission of influenza A viruses have recently been established under controlled laboratory conditions. The interplay of meteorological factors during an actual influenza epidemic is less clear, and research into the contribution of wind to epidemic spread is scarce. By applying geostatistics and survival analysis to data from a large outbreak of equine influenza (A/H3N8), we quantified the association between hazard of infection and air temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, and wind velocity, whilst controlling for premises-level covariates. The pattern of disease spread in space and time was described using extraction mapping and instantaneous hazard curves. Meteorological conditions at each premises location were estimated by kriging daily meteorological data and analysed as time-lagged time-varying predictors using generalised Cox regression. Meteorological covariates time-lagged by three days were strongly associated with hazard of influenza infection, corresponding closely with the incubation period of equine influenza. Hazard of equine influenza infection was higher when relative humidity was <60% and lowest on days when daily maximum air temperature was 20–25°C. Wind speeds >30 km hour−1 from the direction of nearby infected premises were associated with increased hazard of infection. Through combining detailed influenza outbreak and meteorological data, we provide empirical evidence for the underlying environmental mechanisms that influenced the local spread of an outbreak of influenza A. Our analysis supports, and extends, the findings of studies into influenza A transmission conducted under laboratory conditions. The relationships described are of direct importance for managing disease risk during influenza outbreaks in horses, and more generally, advance our understanding of the transmission of influenza A viruses under field conditions