Census TopDown: The Impacts of Differential Privacy on Redistricting

The 2020 Decennial Census will be released with a new disclosure avoidance system in place, putting differential privacy in the spotlight for a wide range of data users. We consider several key applications of Census data in redistricting, developing tools and demonstrations for practitioners who are concerned about the impacts of this new noising algorithm called TopDown. Based on a close look at reconstructed Texas data, we find reassuring evidence that TopDown will not threaten the ability to produce districts with tolerable population balance or to detect signals of racial polarization for Voting Rights Act enforcement

Deletion of annexin 2 light chain p11 in nociceptors causes deficits in somatosensory coding and pain behavior

The S100 family protein p11 (S100A10, annexin 2 light chain) is involved in the trafficking of the voltage-gated sodium channel Na(V)1.8, TWIK-related acid-sensitive K+ channel (TASK-1), the ligand-gated ion channels acid-sensing ion channel 1a (ASIC1a) and transient receptor potential vanilloid 5/6 (TRPV5/V6), as well as 5-hydroxytryptamine receptor 1B (5-HT1B), a G-protein-coupled receptor. To evaluate the role of p11 in peripheral pain pathways, we generated a loxP-flanked (floxed) p11 mouse and used the Cre-loxP recombinase system to delete p11 exclusively from nociceptive primary sensory neurons in mice. p11-null neurons showed deficits in the expression of NaV1.8, but not of annexin 2. Damage-sensing primary neurons from these animals show a reduced tetrodotoxin-resistant sodium current density, consistent with a loss of membrane-associated NaV1.8. Noxious coding in wide-dynamic-range neurons in the dorsal horn was markedly compromised. Acute pain behavior was attenuated in certain models, but no deficits in inflammatory pain were observed. A significant deficit in neuropathic pain behavior was also apparent in the conditional-null mice. These results confirm an important role for p11 in nociceptor function

Variation in ambulance call rates for care homes in Torbay, UK

Emergency ambulance calls represent one of the routes of emergency hospital admissions from care homes. We aimed to describe the pattern of ambulance call rates from care homes and identify factors predicting those homes calling for an ambulance most frequently. We obtained data from South Western Ambulance Service NHS Foundation Trust on 3138 ambulance calls relating to people aged 65 and over from care homes in the Torbay region between 1/4/12 and 31/7/13. We supplemented this with data from the Care Quality Commission (CQC) website on home characteristics and outcomes of CQC inspections. We used descriptive statistics to identify variation in ambulance call rates for residential and nursing homes and fitted negative binomial regression models to determine if call rates were predicted by home type (nursing versus residential), the five standards in the CQC reports, dementia care status or travel time to hospital. One hundred and forty-six homes (119 residential and 27 nursing) were included in the analysis. The number of calls made ranged from 1 to 99. The median number (IQR; range) of calls per resident per year was 0.51 (0.21 to 0.89; 0.03 to 2.45). Nursing homes had a lower call rate than residential homes (adjusted rate ratio (ARR) 0.29; 95% CI: 0.22 to 0.40 ; p<0.001); care homes failing the quality and suitability of management standard had a lower call rate compared to those who passed (ARR 0.67; 95% CI: 0.50 to 0.90; p=0.006); and homes specialising in dementia had a higher call rate compared to those not specialising (ARR 1.56; 95% CI: 1.23 to 1.96; p<0.001). These findings require replication in other regions to establish their generalisability and further investigation is required to determine the extent to which callrate variability reflects the different needs of resident populations or differences in care home policies and practice

Premenopausal endogenous oestrogen levels and breast cancer risk: a meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Many of the established risk factors for breast cancer implicate circulating hormone levels in the aetiology of the disease. Increased levels of postmenopausal endogenous oestradiol (E2) have been found to increase the risk of breast cancer, but no such association has been confirmed in premenopausal women. We carried out a meta-analysis to summarise the available evidence in women before the menopause. METHODS: We identified seven prospective studies of premenopausal endogenous E2 and breast cancer risk, including 693 breast cancer cases. From each study we extracted odds ratios of breast cancer between quantiles of endogenous E2, or for unit or s.d. increases in (log transformed) E2, or (where odds ratios were unavailable) summary statistics for the distributions of E2 in breast cancer cases and unaffected controls. Estimates for a doubling of endogenous E2 were obtained from these extracted estimates, and random-effect meta-analysis was used to obtain a pooled estimate across the studies. RESULTS: Overall, we found weak evidence of a positive association between circulating E2 levels and the risk of breast cancer, with a doubling of E2 associated with an odds ratio of 1.10 (95% CI: 0.96, 1.27). CONCLUSION: Our findings are consistent with the hypothesis of a positive association between premenopausal endogenous E2 and breast cancer risk

Initial evidence that non-clinical autistic traits are associated with lower income

Among non-clinical samples, autistic traits correlate with a range of educational and social outcomes. However, previous work has not investigated the relationship between autistic traits and income, a key determinant of socio-economic status and wellbeing. In 5 studies (total N = 2491), we recruited participants without a diagnosis of autism from the general US population via an on-line platform, and administered the short-form Autism Spectrum Quotient (AQ) as well as asking a range of demographic questions. We found a negative association between AQ and household income, which remained robust after controlling for age, gender, education, employment status, ethnicity, and socially-desirable responding. The effect was primarily driven by the participant’s own income, and was mainly due to the social subscale of the AQ. These results provide initial evidence that income is negatively related to autistic traits among the general population, with potential implications for a range of social, psychological, and health outcomes.WJS was supported by Wellcome Trust grant RG76641 and Isaac Newton Trust grant RG70368. SBC was supported by the Autism Research Trust

Do Changes in the Pace of Events Affect One-Off Judgments of Duration?

Five experiments examined whether changes in the pace of external events influence people’s judgments of duration. In Experiments 1a–1c, participants heard pieces of music whose tempo accelerated, decelerated, or remained constant. In Experiment 2, participants completed a visuo-motor task in which the rate of stimulus presentation accelerated, decelerated, or remained constant. In Experiment 3, participants completed a reading task in which facts appeared on-screen at accelerating, decelerating, or constant rates. In all experiments, the physical duration of the to-be-judged interval was the same across conditions. We found no significant effects of temporal structure on duration judgments in any of the experiments, either when participants knew that a time estimate would be required (prospective judgments) or when they did not (retrospective judgments). These results provide a starting point for the investigation of how temporal structure affects one-off judgments of duration like those typically made in natural settings

Systematic review and meta-analysis of reduction in all-cause mortality from walking and cycling and shape of dose response relationship

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Walking and cycling have shown beneficial effects on population risk of all-cause mortality (ACM). This paper aims to review the evidence and quantify these effects, adjusted for other physical activity (PA). DATA SOURCES: We conducted a systematic review to identify relevant studies. Searches were conducted in November 2013 using the following health databases of publications: Embase (OvidSP); Medline (OvidSP); Web of Knowledge; CINAHL; SCOPUS; SPORTDiscus. We also searched reference lists of relevant texts and reviews. STUDY ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA AND PARTICIPANTS: Eligible studies were prospective cohort design and reporting walking or cycling exposure and mortality as an outcome. Only cohorts of individuals healthy at baseline were considered eligible. STUDY APPRAISAL AND SYNTHESIS METHODS: Extracted data included study population and location, sample size, population characteristics (age and sex), follow-up in years, walking or cycling exposure, mortality outcome, and adjustment for other co-variables. We used random-effects meta-analyses to investigate the beneficial effects of regular walking and cycling. RESULTS: Walking (18 results from 14 studies) and cycling (8 results from 7 studies) were shown to reduce the risk of all-cause mortality, adjusted for other PA. For a standardised dose of 11.25 MET.hours per week (or 675 MET.minutes per week), the reduction in risk for ACM was 11% (95% CI = 4 to 17%) for walking and 10% (95% CI = 6 to 13%) for cycling. The estimates for walking are based on 280,000 participants and 2.6 million person-years and for cycling they are based on 187,000 individuals and 2.1 million person-years. The shape of the dose-response relationship was modelled through meta-analysis of pooled relative risks within three exposure intervals. The dose-response analysis showed that walking or cycling had the greatest effect on risk for ACM in the first (lowest) exposure interval. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: The analysis shows that walking and cycling have population-level health benefits even after adjustment for other PA. Public health approaches would have the biggest impact if they are able to increase walking and cycling levels in the groups that have the lowest levels of these activities. REVIEW REGISTRATION: The review protocol was registered with PROSPERO (International database of prospectively registered systematic reviews in health and social care) PROSPERO 2013: CRD42013004266

Abundance estimates for sperm whales in the Mediterranean Sea from acoustic line-transect surveys

Open access journal. This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from the International Whaling Commission via the URLs in this record.The Mediterranean sub-population of sperm whales is believed to be isolated and is classified as Endangered on the IUCN Red List. Although there is evidence to suggest the population is declining, there is a lack of abundance data. A series of acoustic line-transect surveys to estimate abundance were conducted between 2004 and 2013. In 2004, 3,946km of acoustic effort was conducted in the southern Western Mediterranean basin, resulting in the detection of 159 sperm whales. While in 2007 and 2013, 10,276km of acoustic effort was conducted in the Eastern Mediterranean basin, resulting in the detection of 24 sperm whales. A pooled detection function gave an effective strip half-width of 9.8km. A correction for availability bias was made for each block based on published simulations using data on sperm whale acoustic behaviour: estimates of g(0) were 0.95-0.96. Estimated abundances were: Southern Western Mediterranean block 634 animals [374-1,077] (95% log-normal confidence interval), Hellenic Trench block 41 [17-100], Central Aegean Sea block 33 [5-203], Herodotus Rise block 5 [1-28] and Southern Adriatic Sea block 2 [0-12], estimates for all other blocks were zero. The density of sperm whales in the surveyed Southern Western Mediterranean block was over 17 times higher than for the surveyed Eastern Mediterranean (2.12 and 0.12 whales per 1,000km² respectively). These results, combined with an acoustic survey of the northern Ionian Sea in 2003 and aerial surveys in the northern Western Mediterranean basin in 2010-11, covered approximately 57% of the likely sperm whale habitat in the Western Mediterranean and 75% in the Eastern Mediterranean. Approximate total estimates of sperm whale abundance in the Western and Eastern Mediterranean basins based on extrapolation to the unsurveyed areas are 1,678 and 164 whales respectively. This gives an estimate for the whole Mediterranean Sea of 1,842 animals.The research presented in this paper was conducted and funded by the International Fund for Animal Welfare

Ct threshold values, a proxy for viral load in community SARS-CoV-2 cases, demonstrate wide variation across populations and over time

Background: Information on SARS-CoV-2 in representative community surveillance is limited, particularly cycle threshold (Ct) values (a proxy for viral load). Methods: We included all positive nose and throat swabs 26 April 2020 to 13 March 2021 from the UK’s national COVID-19 Infection Survey, tested by RT-PCR for the N, S, and ORF1ab genes. We investigated predictors of median Ct value using quantile regression. Results: Of 3,312,159 nose and throat swabs, 27,902 (0.83%) were RT-PCR-positive, 10,317 (37%), 11,012 (40%), and 6550 (23%) for 3, 2, or 1 of the N, S, and ORF1ab genes, respectively, with median Ct = 29.2 (~215 copies/ml; IQR Ct = 21.9–32.8, 14–56,400 copies/ml). Independent predictors of lower Cts (i.e. higher viral load) included self-reported symptoms and more genes detected, with at most small effects of sex, ethnicity, and age. Single-gene positives almost invariably had Ct > 30, but Cts varied widely in triple-gene positives, including without symptoms. Population-level Cts changed over time, with declining Ct preceding increasing SARS-CoV-2 positivity. Of 6189 participants with IgG S-antibody tests post-first RT-PCR-positive, 4808 (78%) were ever antibody-positive; Cts were significantly higher in those remaining antibody negative. Conclusions: Marked variation in community SARS-CoV-2 Ct values suggests that they could be a useful epidemiological early-warning indicator. Funding: Department of Health and Social Care, National Institutes of Health Research, Huo Family Foundation, Medical Research Council UK; Wellcome Trust

Recognising facial expressions in video sequences

We introduce a system that processes a sequence of images of a front-facing human face and recognises a set of facial expressions. We use an efficient appearance-based face tracker to locate the face in the image sequence and estimate the deformation of its non-rigid components. The tracker works in real-time. It is robust to strong illumination changes and factors out changes in appearance caused by illumination from changes due to face deformation. We adopt a model-based approach for facial expression recognition. In our model, an image of a face is represented by a point in a deformation space. The variability of the classes of images associated to facial expressions are represented by a set of samples which model a low-dimensional manifold in the space of deformations. We introduce a probabilistic procedure based on a nearest-neighbour approach to combine the information provided by the incoming image sequence with the prior information stored in the expression manifold in order to compute a posterior probability associated to a facial expression. In the experiments conducted we show that this system is able to work in an unconstrained environment with strong changes in illumination and face location. It achieves an 89\% recognition rate in a set of 333 sequences from the Cohn-Kanade data base