Recent Change—North Sea

This chapter discusses past and ongoing change in the following physical variables within the North Sea: temperature, salinity and stratification; currents and circulation; mean sea level; and extreme sea levels. Also considered are carbon dioxide; pH and nutrients; oxygen; suspended particulate matter and turbidity; coastal erosion, sedimentation and morphology; and sea ice. The distinctive character of the Wadden Sea is addressed, with a particular focus on nutrients and sediments. This chapter covers the past 200 years and focuses on the historical development of evidence (measurements, process understanding and models), the form, duration and accuracy of the evidence available, and what the evidence shows in terms of the state and trends in the respective variables. Much work has focused on detecting long-term change in the North Sea region, either from measurements or with models. Attempts to attribute such changes to, for example, anthropogenic forcing are still missing for the North Sea. Studies are urgently needed to assess consistency between observed changes and current expectations, in order to increase the level of confidence in projections of expected future conditions

Maximum in the Middle: Nonlinear Response of Microbial Plankton to Ultraviolet Radiation and Phosphorus

The responses of heterotrophic microbial food webs (HMFW) to the joint action of abiotic stressors related to global change have been studied in an oligotrophic high-mountain lake. A 2×5 factorial design field experiment performed with large mesocosms for >2 months was used to quantify the dynamics of the entire HMFW (bacteria, heterotrophic nanoflagellates, ciliates, and viruses) after an experimental P-enrichment gradient which approximated or surpassed current atmospheric P pulses in the presence vs. absence of ultraviolet radiation. HMFW underwent a mid-term (<20 days) acute development following a noticeable unimodal response to P enrichment, which peaked at intermediate P-enrichment levels and, unexpectedly, was more accentuated under ultraviolet radiation. However, after depletion of dissolved inorganic P, the HMFW collapsed and was outcompeted by a low-diversity autotrophic compartment, which constrained the development of HMFW and caused a significant loss of functional biodiversity. The dynamics and relationships among variables, and the response patterns found, suggest the importance of biotic interactions (predation/parasitism and competition) in restricting HMFW development, in contrast to the role of abiotic factors as main drivers of autotrophic compartment. The response of HMFW may contribute to ecosystem resilience by favoring the maintenance of the peculiar paths of energy and nutrient-mobilization in these pristine ecosystems, which are vulnerable to threats by the joint action of abiotic stressors related to global change.This research was supported by Junta de Andalucía (Excelencia P07-CVI-02598 to PC, and P09-RNM-5376 to JMMS), the Spanish Ministries of Medio Ambiente, Rural y Marino (PN2009/067 to PC) and Ciencia e Innovación (GLC2008-01127/BOS and CGL2011-23681 to PC), the ERC Advanced Grant project number 250254 “MINOS” (to GB), and two Spanish government grants (to JADM and FJB)

Assessment of examiner leniency and stringency ('hawk-dove effect') in the MRCP(UK) clinical examination (PACES) using multi-facet Rasch modelling

BACKGROUND: A potential problem of clinical examinations is known as the hawk-dove problem, some examiners being more stringent and requiring a higher performance than other examiners who are more lenient. Although the problem has been known qualitatively for at least a century, we know of no previous statistical estimation of the size of the effect in a large-scale, high-stakes examination. Here we use FACETS to carry out a multi-facet Rasch modelling of the paired judgements made by examiners in the clinical examination (PACES) of MRCP(UK), where identical candidates were assessed in identical situations, allowing calculation of examiner stringency. METHODS: Data were analysed from the first nine diets of PACES, which were taken between June 2001 and March 2004 by 10,145 candidates. Each candidate was assessed by two examiners on each of seven separate tasks. with the candidates assessed by a total of 1,259 examiners, resulting in a total of 142,030 marks. Examiner demographics were described in terms of age, sex, ethnicity, and total number of candidates examined. RESULTS: FACETS suggested that about 87% of main effect variance was due to candidate differences, 1% due to station differences, and 12% due to differences between examiners in leniency-stringency. Multiple regression suggested that greater examiner stringency was associated with greater examiner experience and being from an ethnic minority. Male and female examiners showed no overall difference in stringency. Examination scores were adjusted for examiner stringency and it was shown that for the present pass mark, the outcome for 95.9% of candidates would be unchanged using adjusted marks, whereas 2.6% of candidates would have passed, even though they had failed on the basis of raw marks, and 1.5% of candidates would have failed, despite passing on the basis of raw marks. CONCLUSION: Examiners do differ in their leniency or stringency, and the effect can be estimated using Rasch modelling. The reasons for differences are not clear, but there are some demographic correlates, and the effects appear to be reliable across time. Account can be taken of differences, either by adjusting marks or, perhaps more effectively and more justifiably, by pairing high and low stringency examiners, so that raw marks can be used in the determination of pass and fail

Search for a new gauge boson in π0\pi^{0} decays

A search was made for a new light gauge boson $X$ which might be produced in $\pi^{0}\to\gamma + X$ decay from neutral pions generated by 450-GeV protons in the CERN SPS neutrino target. The X's would penetrate the downstream shielding and be observed in the NOMAD detector via the Primakoff effect, in the process of $X \to\pi^{0}$ conversion in the external Coulomb field of a nucleus. With $1.45\times10^{18}$ protons on target, 20 candidate events with energy between 8 and 140 GeV were found from the analysis of neutrino data. This number is in agreement with the expectation of 18.1$\pm$2.8 background events from standard neutrino processes. A new 90% C.L. upper limit on the branching ratio $Br(\pi^{0}\to\gamma + X)< (3.3 to 1.9) \times10^{-5}$ for $X$ masses ranging from 0 to 120 MeV/c^2 is obtained.Comment: 15 pages, LaTex, 6 eps figures included, submitted to Physics Letters

Spring bloom succession, grazing impact and herbivore selectivity of ciliate communities in response to winter warming

This study aimed at simulating different degrees of winter warming and at assessing its potential effects on ciliate succession and grazing-related patterns. By using indoor mesocosms filled with unfiltered water from Kiel Bight, natural light and four different temperature regimes, phytoplankton spring blooms were induced and the thermal responses of ciliates were quantified. Two distinct ciliate assemblages, a pre-spring and a spring bloom assemblage, could be detected, while their formation was strongly temperature-dependent. Both assemblages were dominated by Strobilidiids; the pre-spring bloom phase was dominated by the small Strobilidiids Lohmaniella oviformis, and the spring bloom was mainly dominated by large Strobilidiids of the genus Strobilidium. The numerical response of ciliates to increasing food concentrations showed a strong acceleration by temperature. Grazing rates of ciliates and copepods were low during the pre-spring bloom period and high during the bloom ranging from 0.06 (&#916;0°C) to 0.23 day&#8722;1 (&#916;4°C) for ciliates and 0.09 (&#916;0°C) to 1.62 day&#8722;1 (&#916;4°C) for copepods. During the spring bloom ciliates and copepods showed a strong dietary overlap characterized by a wide food spectrum consisting mainly of Chrysochromulina sp., diatom chains and large, single-celled diatoms

Warming induces shifts in microzooplankton phenology and reduces the time-lag between phytoplankton and protozoan production.

Indoor mesocosm experiments were conducted to test for potential climate change effects on the spring succession of Baltic Sea plankton. Two different temperature (Δ0 °C and Δ6 °C) and three light scenarios (62, 57 and 49 % of the natural surface light intensity on sunny days), mimicking increasing cloudiness as predicted for warmer winters in the Baltic Sea region, were simulated. By combining experimental and modeling approaches, we were able to test for a potential dietary mismatch between phytoplankton and zooplankton. Two general predator–prey models, one representing the community as a tri-trophic food chain and one as a 5-guild food web were applied to test for the consequences of different temperature sensitivities of heterotrophic components of the plankton. During the experiments, we observed reduced time-lags between the peaks of phytoplankton and protozoan biomass in response to warming. Microzooplankton peak biomass was reached by 2.5 day °C−1 earlier and occurred almost synchronously with biomass peaks of phytoplankton in the warm mesocosms (Δ6 °C). The peak magnitudes of microzooplankton biomass remained unaffected by temperature, and growth rates of microzooplankton were higher at Δ6 °C (μ∆0 °C = 0.12 day−1 and μ∆6 °C = 0.25 day−1). Furthermore, warming induced a shift in microzooplankton phenology leading to a faster species turnover and a shorter window of microzooplankton occurrence. Moderate differences in the light levels had no significant effect on the time-lags between autotrophic and heterotrophic biomass and on the timing, biomass maxima and growth rate of microzooplankton biomass. Both models predicted reduced time-lags between the biomass peaks of phytoplankton and its predators (both microzooplankton and copepods) with warming. The reduction of time-lags increased with increasing Q10 values of copepods and protozoans in the tritrophic food chain. Indirect trophic effects modified this pattern in the 5-guild food web. Our study shows that instead of a mismatch, warming might lead to a stronger match between protist grazers and their prey altering in turn the transfer of matter and energy toward higher trophic levels