On the Considerations of Using Near Real Time Data for Space Weather Hazard Forecasting

Space weather represents a severe threat to ground-based infrastructure, satellites and communications. Accurately forecasting when such threats are likely (e.g., when we may see large induced currents) will help to mitigate the societal and financial costs. In recent years computational models have been created that can forecast hazardous intervals, however they generally use post-processed “science” solar wind data from upstream of the Earth. In this work we investigate the quality and continuity of the data that are available in Near-Real-Time (NRT) from the Advanced Composition Explorer and Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) spacecraft. In general, the data available in NRT corresponds well with post-processed data, however there are three main areas of concern: greater short-term variability in the NRT data, occasional anomalous values and frequent data gaps. Some space weather models are able to compensate for these issues if they are also present in the data used to fit (or train) the model, while others will require extra checks to be implemented in order to produce high quality forecasts. We find that the DSCOVR NRT data are generally more continuous, though they have been available for small fraction of a solar cycle and therefore DSCOVR has experienced a limited range of solar wind conditions. We find that short gaps are the most common, and are most frequently found in the plasma data. To maximize forecast availability we suggest the implementation of limited interpolation if possible, for example, for gaps of 5 min or less, which could increase the fraction of valid input data considerably

Automated force-free flux rope identification

We describe a method developed to automatically identify quasi force‐free magnetotail flux ropes from in situ spacecraft magnetometer data. The method locates significant (greater than 1σ) deflections of the north‐south component of the magnetic field coincident with enhancements in other field components. The magnetic field data around the deflections are then processed using Minimum Variance Analysis (MVA) to narrow the selection down to those that exhibit the characteristics of flux ropes. The subset of candidates that fulfills the requirements are then compared to a cylindrical, linear (constant‐α) force‐free model. Those that can be well approximated as force free are then accepted. The model fit also provides a measure of the physical parameters that describe the flux rope (i.e., core field and radius). This process allows for the creation of a repeatable, consistent catalog of flux ropes. Automation allows a greater volume of data to be covered, saving time and allowing the exploration of potential selection biases. The technique is applied to MESSENGER (MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry, and Ranging) magnetometer data in the Hermean magnetotail and successfully locates flux ropes, some of which match previously known encounters. Assumptions of the method and potential future applications are discussed

eDNA in a bottleneck : obstacles to fish metabarcoding studies in megadiverse freshwater systems

The current capacity of environmental DNA (eDNA) to provide accurate insights into the biodiversity of megadiverse regions (e.g., the Neotropics) requires further evaluation to ensure its reliability for long‐term monitoring. In this study, we first evaluated the taxonomic resolution capabilities of a short fragment from the 12S rRNA gene widely used in fish eDNA metabarcoding studies, and then compared eDNA metabarcoding data from water samples with traditional sampling using nets. For the taxonomic discriminatory power analysis, we used a specifically curated reference dataset consisting of 373 sequences from 258 neotropical fish species (including 47 newly generated sequences) to perform a genetic distance‐based analysis of the amplicons targeted by the MiFish primer set. We obtained an optimum delimitation threshold value of 0.5% due to lowest cumulative errors. The barcoding gap analysis revealed only a 51.55% success rate in species recovery (133/258), highlighting a poor taxonomic resolution from the targeted amplicon. To evaluate the empirical performance of this amplicon for biomonitoring, we assessed fish biodiversity using eDNA metabarcoding from water samples collected from the Amazon (Adolpho Ducke Forest Reserve and two additional locations outside the Reserve). From a total of 84 identified Molecular Operational Taxonomic Units (MOTUs), only four could be assigned to species level using a fixed threshold. Measures of α‐diversity analyses within the Reserve showed similar patterns in each site between the number of MOTUs (eDNA dataset) and species (netting data) found. However, β‐diversity revealed contrasting patterns between the methods. We therefore suggest that a new approach is needed, underpinned by sound taxonomic knowledge, and a more thorough evaluation of better molecular identification procedures such as multi‐marker metabarcoding approaches and tailor‐made (i.e., order‐specific) taxonomic delimitation thresholds

The Response of Paroxysmal Supraventricular Tachycardia to Overdrive Atrial and Ventricular Pacing:

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/75015/1/j.1540-8167.1993.tb01227.x.pd

Protection from annual flooding is correlated with increased cholera prevalence in Bangladesh: a zero-inflated regression analysis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Alteration of natural or historical aquatic flows can have unintended consequences for regions where waterborne diseases are endemic and where the epidemiologic implications of such change are poorly understood. The implementation of flood protection measures for a portion of an intensely monitored population in Matlab, Bangladesh, allows us to examine whether cholera outcomes respond positively or negatively to measures designed to control river flooding.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Using a zero inflated negative binomial model, we examine how selected covariates can simultaneously account for household clusters reporting no cholera from those with positive counts as well as distinguishing residential areas with low counts from areas with high cholera counts. Our goal is to examine how residence within or outside a flood protected area interacts with the probability of cholera presence and the effect of flood protection on the magnitude of cholera prevalence.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In Matlab, living in a household that is protected from annual monsoon flooding appears to have no significant effect on whether the household experiences cholera, net of other covariates. However, counter-intuitively, among households where cholera is reported, living within the flood protected region significantly increases the number of cholera cases.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The construction of dams or other water impoundment strategies for economic or social motives can have profound and unanticipated consequences for waterborne disease. Our results indicate that the construction of a flood control structure in rural Bangladesh is correlated with an increase in cholera cases for residents protected from annual monsoon flooding. Such a finding requires attention from both the health community and from governments and non-governmental organizations involved in ongoing water management schemes.</p

Having a lot of a good thing: multiple important group memberships as a source of self-esteem.

Copyright: © 2015 Jetten et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are creditedMembership in important social groups can promote a positive identity. We propose and test an identity resource model in which personal self-esteem is boosted by membership in additional important social groups. Belonging to multiple important group memberships predicts personal self-esteem in children (Study 1a), older adults (Study 1b), and former residents of a homeless shelter (Study 1c). Study 2 shows that the effects of multiple important group memberships on personal self-esteem are not reducible to number of interpersonal ties. Studies 3a and 3b provide longitudinal evidence that multiple important group memberships predict personal self-esteem over time. Studies 4 and 5 show that collective self-esteem mediates this effect, suggesting that membership in multiple important groups boosts personal self-esteem because people take pride in, and derive meaning from, important group memberships. Discussion focuses on when and why important group memberships act as a social resource that fuels personal self-esteem.This study was supported by 1. Australian Research Council Future Fellowship (FT110100238) awarded to Jolanda Jetten (see http://www.arc.gov.au) 2. Australian Research Council Linkage Grant (LP110200437) to Jolanda Jetten and Genevieve Dingle (see http://www.arc.gov.au) 3. support from the Canadian Institute for Advanced Research Social Interactions, Identity and Well-Being Program to Nyla Branscombe, S. Alexander Haslam, and Catherine Haslam (see http://www.cifar.ca)

Borderline breast core needle histology: predictive values for malignancy in lesions of uncertain malignant potential (B3)

Breast core needle biopsy (CNB) is an accurate test but may result in borderline histology (lesions of uncertain malignant potential or B3). This is an evaluation of the largest series (to date) of B3 histology, which focusses on estimating positive predictive values (PPV) for malignancy. We identified all B3 CNBs over a 10-year period in a single institution (N=372) from a series of 4035 consecutive needle biopsies. We describe the imaging findings, and report excision histology outcomes (N=279) and category-specific PPV for B3 lesions using two approaches including estimates based on subjects who had either excision or follow-up (N=328). B3 represented 9.2% of all CNB results. Excision histology was benign in 181 (64.9%) and malignant in 98 (35.1%) subjects (61 ductal carcinoma in situ, 37 invasive carcinoma). Positive predictive value for malignancy (based on excision histology) was 35.1% (95% CI: 29.5–40.7) and PPV (based on excision or review) was 29.9% (95% CI: 24.9–34.8). Lesion-specific PPV (estimates in parentheses for excision or follow-up) was atypical ductal hyperplasia 44.7% (40.6%); lobular intraepithelial neoplasia 60.9% (58.3%); papillary lesion 22.7% (15.9%); radial scar 16.7% (12.3%); phyllodes tumour 12.5% (12.5%); and B3 not specified 20.0%. Approximately one-third of CNB results classified as B3 are malignant on excision, and the likelihood of malignancy varies substantially between specific lesion groups. Whereas cases may be selectively managed without surgery, the majority warrant excision biopsy based on our estimates. Research is needed to improve differentiation between malignant and benign diseases in B3 lesions using diagnostic or predictive methods

The application of digital volume correlation (DVC) to evaluate strain predictions generated by finite element models of the osteoarthritic humeral head

Continuum-level finite element models (FEMs) of the humerus offer the ability to evaluate joint replacement designs preclinically; however, experimental validation of these models is critical to ensure accuracy. The objective of the current study was to quantify experimental full-field strain magnitudes within osteoarthritic (OA) humeral heads by combining mechanical loading with volumetric microCT imaging and digital volume correlation (DVC). The experimental data was used to evaluate the accuracy of corresponding FEMs. Six OA humeral head osteotomies were harvested from patients being treated with total shoulder arthroplasty and mechanical testing was performed within a microCT scanner. MicroCT images (33.5 µm isotropic voxels) were obtained in a pre- and post-loaded state and BoneDVC was used to quantify full-field experimental strains (≈ 1 mm nodal spacing, accuracy = 351 µstrain, precision = 518 µstrain). Continuum-level FEMs with two types of boundary conditions (BCs) were simulated: DVC-driven and force-driven. Accuracy of the FEMs was found to be sensitive to the BC simulated with better agreement found with the use of DVC-driven BCs (slope = 0.83, r2 = 0.80) compared to force-driven BCs (slope = 0.22, r2 = 0.12). This study quantified mechanical strain distributions within OA trabecular bone and demonstrated the importance of BCs to ensure the accuracy of predictions generated by corresponding FEMs

Ultrasound-guided core-needle biopsy of breast lesions

Ultrasound-guided CNB has proven to be a reliable technique for performing a biopsy for breast lesions that can be clearly seen on ultrasoun