Physically-based Assessment of Hurricane Surge Threat under Climate Change

Storm surges are responsible for much of the damage and loss of life associated with landfalling hurricanes. Understanding how global warming will affect hurricane surges thus holds great interest. As general circulation models (GCMs) cannot simulate hurricane surges directly, we couple a GCM-driven hurricane model with hydrodynamic models to simulate large numbers of synthetic surge events under projected climates and assess surge threat, as an example, for New York City (NYC). Struck by many intense hurricanes in recorded history and prehistory, NYC is highly vulnerable to storm surges. We show that the change of storm climatology will probably increase the surge risk for NYC; results based on two GCMs show the distribution of surge levels shifting to higher values by a magnitude comparable to the projected sea-level rise (SLR). The combined effects of storm climatology change and a 1 m SLR may cause the present NYC 100-yr surge flooding to occur every 3–20 yr and the present 500-yr flooding to occur every 25–240 yr by the end of the century.United States. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Postdoctoral Fellowship Program)National Science Foundation (U.S.

Testing the paradox of enrichment along a land use gradient in a multitrophic aboveground and belowground community

In the light of ongoing land use changes, it is important to understand how multitrophic communities perform at different land use intensities. The paradox of enrichment predicts that fertilization leads to destabilization and extinction of predator-prey systems. We tested this prediction for a land use intensity gradient from natural to highly fertilized agricultural ecosystems. We included multiple aboveground and belowground trophic levels and land use-dependent searching efficiencies of insects. To overcome logistic constraints of field experiments, we used a successfully validated simulation model to investigate plant responses to removal of herbivores and their enemies. Consistent with our predictions, instability measured by herbivore-induced plant mortality increased with increasing land use intensity. Simultaneously, the balance between herbivores and natural enemies turned increasingly towards herbivore dominance and natural enemy failure. Under natural conditions, there were more frequently significant effects of belowground herbivores and their natural enemies on plant performance, whereas there were more aboveground effects in agroecosystems. This result was partly due to the “boom-bust” behavior of the shoot herbivore population. Plant responses to herbivore or natural enemy removal were much more abrupt than the imposed smooth land use intensity gradient. This may be due to the presence of multiple trophic levels aboveground and belowground. Our model suggests that destabilization and extinction are more likely to occur in agroecosystems than in natural communities, but the shape of the relationship is nonlinear under the influence of multiple trophic interactions.

Control of substrate access to the active site in methane monooxygenase

Methanotrophs consume methane as their major carbon source and have an essential role in the global carbon cycle by limiting escape of this greenhouse gas to the atmosphere. These bacteria oxidize methane to methanol by soluble and particulate methane monooxygenases (MMOs). Soluble MMO contains three protein components, a 251-kilodalton hydroxylase (MMOH), a 38.6-kilodalton reductase (MMOR), and a 15.9-kilodalton regulatory protein (MMOB), required to couple electron consumption with substrate hydroxylation at the catalytic diiron centre of MMOH. Until now, the role of MMOB has remained ambiguous owing to a lack of atomic-level information about the MMOH–MMOB (hereafter termed H–B) complex. Here we remedy this deficiency by providing a crystal structure of H–B, which reveals the manner by which MMOB controls the conformation of residues in MMOH crucial for substrate access to the active site. MMOB docks at the α[subscript 2]β[subscript 2] interface of α[subscript 2]β[subscript 2]γ[subscript 2] MMOH, and triggers simultaneous conformational changes in the α-subunit that modulate oxygen and methane access as well as proton delivery to the diiron centre. Without such careful control by MMOB of these substrate routes to the diiron active site, the enzyme operates as an NADH oxidase rather than a monooxygenase. Biological catalysis involving small substrates is often accomplished in nature by large proteins and protein complexes. The structure presented in this work provides an elegant example of this principle.National Institute of General Medical Sciences (U.S.) (Grant GM 32114

Impacts of climate change on plant diseases – opinions and trends

There has been a remarkable scientific output on the topic of how climate change is likely to affect plant diseases in the coming decades. This review addresses the need for review of this burgeoning literature by summarizing opinions of previous reviews and trends in recent studies on the impacts of climate change on plant health. Sudden Oak Death is used as an introductory case study: Californian forests could become even more susceptible to this emerging plant disease, if spring precipitations will be accompanied by warmer temperatures, although climate shifts may also affect the current synchronicity between host cambium activity and pathogen colonization rate. A summary of observed and predicted climate changes, as well as of direct effects of climate change on pathosystems, is provided. Prediction and management of climate change effects on plant health are complicated by indirect effects and the interactions with global change drivers. Uncertainty in models of plant disease development under climate change calls for a diversity of management strategies, from more participatory approaches to interdisciplinary science. Involvement of stakeholders and scientists from outside plant pathology shows the importance of trade-offs, for example in the land-sharing vs. sparing debate. Further research is needed on climate change and plant health in mountain, boreal, Mediterranean and tropical regions, with multiple climate change factors and scenarios (including our responses to it, e.g. the assisted migration of plants), in relation to endophytes, viruses and mycorrhiza, using long-term and large-scale datasets and considering various plant disease control methods

Does the inclusion of 'professional development' teaching improve medical students' communication skills?

Background: This study investigated whether the introduction of professional development teaching in the first two years of a medical course improved students' observed communication skills with simulated patients. Students' observed communication skills were related to patient-centred attitudes, confidence in communicating with patients and performance in later clinical examinations.Methods: Eighty-two medical students from two consecutive cohorts at a UK medical school completed two videoed consultations with a simulated patient: one at the beginning of year 1 and one at the end of year 2. Group 1 (n = 35) received a traditional pre-clinical curriculum. Group 2 (n = 47) received a curriculum that included communication skills training integrated into a 'professional development' vertical module. Videoed consultations were rated using the Evans Interview Rating Scale by communication skills tutors. A subset of 27% were double-coded. Inter-rater reliability is reported.Results: Students who had received the professional development teaching achieved higher ratings for use of silence, not interrupting the patient, and keeping the discussion relevant compared to students receiving the traditional curriculum. Patient-centred attitudes were not related to observed communication. Students who were less nervous and felt they knew how to listen were rated as better communicators. Students receiving the traditional curriculum and who had been rated as better communicators when they entered medical school performed less well in the final year clinical examination.Conclusions: Students receiving the professional development training showed significant improvements in certain communication skills, but students in both cohorts improved over time. The lack of a relationship between observed communication skills and patient-centred attitudes may be a reflection of students' inexperience in working with patients, resulting in 'patient-centredness' being an abstract concept. Students in the early years of their medical course may benefit from further opportunities to practise basic communication skills on a one-to-one basis with patients

Aberrant crossed corticospinal facilitation in muscles distant from a spinal cord injury.

Crossed facilitatory interactions in the corticospinal pathway are impaired in humans with chronic incomplete spinal cord injury (SCI). The extent to which crossed facilitation is affected in muscles above and below the injury remains unknown. To address this question we tested 51 patients with neurological injuries between C2-T12 and 17 age-matched healthy controls. Using transcranial magnetic stimulation we elicited motor evoked potentials (MEPs) in the resting first dorsal interosseous, biceps brachii, and tibialis anterior muscles when the contralateral side remained at rest or performed 70% of maximal voluntary contraction (MVC) into index finger abduction, elbow flexion, and ankle dorsiflexion, respectively. By testing MEPs in muscles with motoneurons located at different spinal cord segments we were able to relate the neurological level of injury to be above, at, or below the location of the motoneurons of the muscle tested. We demonstrate that in patients the size of MEPs was increased to a similar extent as in controls in muscles above the injury during 70% of MVC compared to rest. MEPs remained unchanged in muscles at and within 5 segments below the injury during 70% of MVC compared to rest. However, in muscles beyond 5 segments below the injury the size of MEPs increased similar to controls and was aberrantly high, 2-fold above controls, in muscles distant (>15 segments) from the injury. These aberrantly large MEPs were accompanied by larger F-wave amplitudes compared to controls. Thus, our findings support the view that corticospinal degeneration does not spread rostral to the lesion, and highlights the potential of caudal regions distant from an injury to facilitate residual corticospinal output after SCI

Host plant quality, spatial heterogeneity, and the stability of mite predator–prey dynamics

Population dynamics models suggest that both the over-all level of resource productivity and spatial variability in productivity can play important roles in community dynamics. Higher productivity environments are predicted to destabilize consumer–resource dynamics. Conversely, greater heterogeneity in resource productivity is expected to contribute to stability. Yet the importance of these two factors for the dynamics of arthropod communities has been largely overlooked. I manipulated nutrient availability for strawberry plants in a multi-patch experiment, and measured effects of overall plant quality and heterogeneity in plant quality on the stability of interactions between the phytophagous mite Tetranychus urticae and its predator Phytoseiulus persimilis. Plant size, leaf N content and T. urticae population growth increased monotonically with increasing soil nitrogen availability. This gradient in plant quality affected two correlates of mite population stability, population variability over time (i.e., coefficient of variation) and population persistence (i.e., proportion of plant patches colonized). However, the highest level of plant quality did not produce the least stable dynamics, which is inconsistent with the “paradox of enrichment”. Heterogeneity in plant productivity had modest effects on stability, with the only significant difference being less variable T. urticae densities in the heterogeneous compared to the corresponding homogeneous treatment. These results are generally congruent with metapopulation theory and other models for spatially segregated populations, which predict that stability should be governed largely by relative movement rates of predators and prey—rather than patch quality

Uncertainty of wheat water use: Simulated patterns and sensitivity to temperature and CO₂

Projected global warming and population growth will reduce future water availability for agriculture. Thus, it is essential to increase the efficiency in using water to ensure crop productivity. Quantifying crop water use (WU; i.e. actual evapotranspiration) is a critical step towards this goal. Here, sixteen wheat simulation models were used to quantify sources of model uncertainty and to estimate the relative changes and variability between models for simulated WU, water use efficiency (WUE, WU per unit of grain dry mass produced), transpiration efficiency (Teff, transpiration per kg of unit of grain yield dry mass produced), grain yield, crop transpiration and soil evaporation at increased temperatures and elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations ([CO2]). The greatest uncertainty in simulating water use, potential evapotranspiration, crop transpiration and soil evaporation was due to differences in how crop transpiration was modelled and accounted for 50% of the total variability among models. The simulation results for the sensitivity to temperature indicated that crop WU will decline with increasing temperature due to reduced growing seasons. The uncertainties in simulated crop WU, and in particularly due to uncertainties in simulating crop transpiration, were greater under conditions of increased temperatures and with high temperatures in combination with elevated atmospheric [CO2] concentrations. Hence the simulation of crop WU, and in particularly crop transpiration under higher temperature, needs to be improved and evaluated with field measurements before models can be used to simulate climate change impacts on future crop water demand