Improved representation of extratropical cyclone structure in HighResMIP models

This is the final version. Available on open access from Wiley via the DOI in this recordData availability: ERA5 reanalysis is available from the Copernicus Climate Change Service Climate Data Store (https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.bd0915c6). CMIP6 and HighResMIP data is publicly available through the Earth System Grid Federation (https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/projects/cmip6/). The CMIP6 and HighResMIP models used in this study are listed in Tables S1 and S2 respectively of the Supporting Information. The cyclone tracking and compositing algorithm TRACK is available on request from Kevin Hodges at https://gitlab.act.reading.ac.uk/track/track.General circulation models are broadly able to capture the shape and structure of extratropical cyclones. Increased atmospheric resolution has been shown to improve the representation of cyclone structure. However, the intensity of cyclones, and the strength of their winds, are commonly underestimated in models. Using a cyclone compositing technique applied to the new generation HighResMIP and CMIP6 models, the representation of cyclone wind speeds and airstreams is quantified. CMIP6 models are able to capture the structure of cyclones, however winds associated with various airstreams within the cyclones are too weak. HighResMIP models show considerable improvements, with a majority of cyclone-scale biases present in the CMIP6 models reduced in both winter and summer seasons in the Northern and Southern hemispheres. HighResMIP and CMIP6 models have similar biases on the large-scale, with both struggling to represent the width of the upper-level jet.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC

Future changes in the extratropical storm tracks and cyclone intensity, wind speed, and structure

This is the final version. Available on open access from Copernicus Publications via the DOI in this record. Data availability. ERA5 reanalysis is available from the Copernicus Climate Change Service Climate Data Store (https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.bd0915c6, Hersbach et al., 2018). CMIP6 data are publicly available through the Earth System Grid Federation (Eyring et al., 2016).Code availability. Code is available at the request of the author. The cyclone tracking and compositing algorithm TRACK is available at the request of Kevin Hodges from https://gitlab.act.reading.ac.uk/track/track (Hodges, 2022, 1994, 1995, 1999)Future changes in extratropical cyclones and the associated storm tracks are uncertain. Using the new CMIP6 models, we investigate changes to seasonal mean storm tracks and composite wind speeds at different levels of the troposphere for the winter and summer seasons in both the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH). Changes are assessed across four different climate scenarios. The seasonal mean storm tracks are predicted to shift polewards in the SH and also in the North Pacific, with an extension into Europe for the North Atlantic storm track. Overall, the number of cyclones will decrease by ∼5 % by the end of the 21st century, although the number of extreme cyclones will increase by 4 % in NH winter. Cyclone wind speeds are projected to strengthen throughout the troposphere in the winter seasons and also summer in the SH, with a weakening projected in NH summer, although there are minimal changes in the maximum wind speed in the lower troposphere. Changes in wind speeds are concentrated in the warm sector of cyclones, and the area of extreme winds may be up to 40 % larger by the end of the century. The largest changes are seen for the SSP5-85 scenario, although a large amount of change can be mitigated by restricting warming to that seen in the SSP1-26 and 2-45 scenarios. Extreme cyclones show larger increases in wind speed and peak vorticity than the average-strength cyclones, with the extreme cyclones showing a larger increase in wind speed in the warm sector.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC

Future increased risk from extratropical windstorms in northern Europe

This is the final version. Available on open access from Nature Research via the DOI in this recordData availability@ The ERA5 data were available from the Copernicus data store, https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/dataset/reanalysis-era5-pressure-levels?tab=overview, and the CMIP6 model data were available from the Earth System Grid Federation. The generated storm footprints from the current study are available in the GitHub repository, https://github.com/alexslittle/cyclonic-wind-impacts, along with instructions to generate these from the cyclone tracks and the wind speeds.Code availability: The objective feature tracking code belongs to Kevin Hodges and is available from the GitLab repository, https://gitlab.act.reading.ac.uk/track/track. The code to calculate the storm footprints is available from the GitHub repository, https://github.com/alexslittle/cyclonic-wind-impacts.European windstorms cause socioeconomic losses due to wind damage. Projections of future losses from such storms are subject to uncertainties from the frequency and tracks of the storms, their intensities and definitions thereof, and socio-economic scenarios. We use two storm severity indices applied to objectively identified extratropical cyclone footprints from a multi-model ensemble of state-of-the-art climate models under different future socio-economic scenarios. Here we show storm frequency increases across northern and central Europe, where the meteorological storm severity index more than doubles. The population-weighted storm severity index more than triples, due to projected population increases. Adapting to the increasing wind speeds using future damage thresholds, the population weighted storm severity index increases are only partially offset, despite a reduction in the meteorological storm severity through adaptation. Through following lower emissions scenarios, the future increase in risk is reduced, with the population-weighted storm severity index increase more than halved.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC

Computerized general practice based networks yield comparable performance with sentinel data in monitoring epidemiological time-course of influenza-like illness and acute respiratory illness

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Computerized morbidity registration networks might serve as early warning systems in a time where natural epidemics such as the H₁N₁flu can easily spread from one region to another.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In this contribution we examine whether general practice based broad-spectrum computerized morbidity registration networks have the potential to act as a valid surveillance instrument of frequently occurring diseases. We compare general practice based computerized data assessing the frequency of influenza-like illness (ILI) and acute respiratory infections (ARI) with data from a well established case-specific sentinel network, the European Influenza Surveillance Scheme (EISS). The overall frequency and trends of weekly ILI and ARI data are compared using both networks.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Detection of influenza-like illness and acute respiratory illness occurs equally fast in EISS and the computerized network. The overall frequency data for ARI are the same for both networks, the overall trends are similar, but the increases and decreases in frequency do not occur in exactly the same weeks. For ILI, the overall rate was slightly higher for the computerized network population, especially before the increase of ILI, the overall trend was almost identical and the increases and decreases occur in the same weeks for both networks.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Computerized morbidity registration networks are a valid tool for monitoring frequent occurring respiratory diseases and the detection of sudden outbreaks.</p

Advances in prevention and therapy of neonatal dairy calf diarrhoea : a systematical review with emphasis on colostrum management and fluid therapy

Neonatal calf diarrhoea remains the most common cause of morbidity and mortality in preweaned dairy calves worldwide. This complex disease can be triggered by both infectious and non-infectious causes. The four most important enteropathogens leading to neonatal dairy calf diarrhoea are Escherichia coli, rota-and coronavirus, and Cryptosporidium parvum. Besides treating diarrhoeic neonatal dairy calves, the veterinarian is the most obvious person to advise the dairy farmer on prevention and treatment of this disease. This review deals with prevention and treatment of neonatal dairy calf diarrhoea focusing on the importance of a good colostrum management and a correct fluid therapy

Normally preordered spaces and utilities

In applications it is useful to know whether a topological preordered space is normally preordered. It is proved that every $k_\omega$-space equipped with a closed preorder is a normally preordered space. Furthermore, it is proved that second countable regularly preordered spaces are perfectly normally preordered and admit a countable utility representation.Comment: 17 pages, 1 figure. v2 contains a second proof to the main theorem with respect to the published version. The last section of v1 is not present in v2. It will be included in a different wor

Brain Rhythms Reveal a Hierarchical Network Organization

Recordings of ongoing neural activity with EEG and MEG exhibit oscillations of specific frequencies over a non-oscillatory background. The oscillations appear in the power spectrum as a collection of frequency bands that are evenly spaced on a logarithmic scale, thereby preventing mutual entrainment and cross-talk. Over the last few years, experimental, computational and theoretical studies have made substantial progress on our understanding of the biophysical mechanisms underlying the generation of network oscillations and their interactions, with emphasis on the role of neuronal synchronization. In this paper we ask a very different question. Rather than investigating how brain rhythms emerge, or whether they are necessary for neural function, we focus on what they tell us about functional brain connectivity. We hypothesized that if we were able to construct abstract networks, or “virtual brains”, whose dynamics were similar to EEG/MEG recordings, those networks would share structural features among themselves, and also with real brains. Applying mathematical techniques for inverse problems, we have reverse-engineered network architectures that generate characteristic dynamics of actual brains, including spindles and sharp waves, which appear in the power spectrum as frequency bands superimposed on a non-oscillatory background dominated by low frequencies. We show that all reconstructed networks display similar topological features (e.g. structural motifs) and dynamics. We have also reverse-engineered putative diseased brains (epileptic and schizophrenic), in which the oscillatory activity is altered in different ways, as reported in clinical studies. These reconstructed networks show consistent alterations of functional connectivity and dynamics. In particular, we show that the complexity of the network, quantified as proposed by Tononi, Sporns and Edelman, is a good indicator of brain fitness, since virtual brains modeling diseased states display lower complexity than virtual brains modeling normal neural function. We finally discuss the implications of our results for the neurobiology of health and disease

Clostridium perfringens epsilon toxin increases the small intestinal permeability in mice and rats

Epsilon toxin is a potent neurotoxin produced by Clostridium perfringens types B and D, an anaerobic bacterium that causes enterotoxaemia in ruminants. In the affected animal, it causes oedema of the lungs and brain by damaging the endothelial cells, inducing physiological and morphological changes. Although it is believed to compromise the intestinal barrier, thus entering the gut vasculature, little is known about the mechanism underlying this process. This study characterizes the effects of epsilon toxin on fluid transport and bioelectrical parameters in the small intestine of mice and rats. The enteropooling and the intestinal loop tests, together with the single-pass perfusion assay and in vitro and ex vivo analysis in Ussing's chamber, were all used in combination with histological and ultrastructural analysis of mice and rat small intestine, challenged with or without C. perfringens epsilon toxin. Luminal epsilon toxin induced a time and concentration dependent intestinal fluid accumulation and fall of the transepithelial resistance. Although no evident histological changes were observed, opening of the mucosa tight junction in combination with apoptotic changes in the lamina propria were seen with transmission electron microscopy. These results indicate that C. perfringens epsilon toxin alters the intestinal permeability, predominantly by opening the mucosa tight junction, increasing its permeability to macromolecules, and inducing further degenerative changes in the lamina propria of the bowel. © 2009 Goldstein et al