Surrogate-based optimization of tidal turbine arrays: a case study for the Faro-Olhão inlet

This paper presents a study for estimating the size of a tidal turbine array for the Faro-Olhão Inlet (Potugal) using a surrogate optimization approach. The method compromises problem formulation, hydro-morphodynamic modelling, surrogate construction and validation, and constraint optimization. A total of 26 surrogates were built using linear RBFs as a function of two design variables: number of rows in the array and Tidal Energy Converters (TECs) per row. Surrogates describe array performance and environmental effects associated with hydrodynamic and morphological aspects of the multi inlet lagoon. After validation, surrogate models were used to formulate a constraint optimization model. Results evidence that the largest array size that satisfies performance and environmental constraints is made of 3 rows and 10 TECs per row.Eduardo González-Gorbeña has received funding for the OpTiCA project (http://msca-optica.eu/) from the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions of the European Union's H2020-MSCA-IF-EF-RI-2016 / GA#: 748747. The paper is a contribution to the SCORE pro-ject, funded by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT–PTDC/AAG-TEC/1710/2014). André Pacheco was supported by the Portuguese Foun-dation for Science and Technology under the Portuguese Researchers’ Programme 2014 entitled “Exploring new concepts for extracting energy from tides” (IF/00286/2014/CP1234).info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Design of Experiments for Screening

The aim of this paper is to review methods of designing screening experiments, ranging from designs originally developed for physical experiments to those especially tailored to experiments on numerical models. The strengths and weaknesses of the various designs for screening variables in numerical models are discussed. First, classes of factorial designs for experiments to estimate main effects and interactions through a linear statistical model are described, specifically regular and nonregular fractional factorial designs, supersaturated designs and systematic fractional replicate designs. Generic issues of aliasing, bias and cancellation of factorial effects are discussed. Second, group screening experiments are considered including factorial group screening and sequential bifurcation. Third, random sampling plans are discussed including Latin hypercube sampling and sampling plans to estimate elementary effects. Fourth, a variety of modelling methods commonly employed with screening designs are briefly described. Finally, a novel study demonstrates six screening methods on two frequently-used exemplars, and their performances are compared

Multi-level emulation of complex climate model responses to boundary forcing data

Climate model components involve both high-dimensional input and output fields. It is desirable to e ciently generate spatio-temporal out-puts of these models for applications in integrated assessment modelling or to assess the statistical relationship between such sets of inputs and outputs, for example, uncertainty analysis. However, the need for e ciency often compromises the fidelity of output through the use of low complexity models. Here, we develop a technique which combines statistical emulation with a dimensionality reduction technique to emulate a wide range of outputs from an atmospheric general circulation model, PLASIM, as functions of the boundary forcing prescribed by the ocean component of a lower complexity climate model, GENIE-1. Although accurate and detailed spatial information on atmospheric variables such as precipitation and wind speed is well beyond the capability of GENIE-1’s energy-moisture balance model of the atmosphere, this study demonstrates that the output of this model is useful in predicting PLASIM’s spatio-temporal fields through multi-level emulation. Meaningful information from the fast model, GENIE-1 was extracted by utilising the correlation between variables of the same type in the two models and between variables of di↵erent types in PLASIM. We present here the construction and validation of several PLASIM variable emulators and discuss their potential use in developing a hybrid model with statistical components