On Bayesian Search for the Feasible Space Under Computationally Expensive Constraints

We are often interested in identifying the feasible subset of a decision space under multiple constraints to permit effective design exploration. If determining feasibility required computationally expensive simulations, the cost of exploration would be prohibitive. Bayesian search is data-efficient for such problems: starting from a small dataset, the central concept is to use Bayesian models of constraints with an acquisition function to locate promising solutions that may improve predictions of feasibility when the dataset is augmented. At the end of this sequential active learning approach with a limited number of expensive evaluations, the models can accurately predict the feasibility of any solution obviating the need for full simulations. In this paper, we propose a novel acquisition function that combines the probability that a solution lies at the boundary between feasible and infeasible spaces (representing exploitation) and the entropy in predictions (representing exploration). Experiments confirmed the efficacy of the proposed function

Dog Bites in Humans and Estimating Human Rabies Mortality in Rabies Endemic Areas of Bhutan

Dog bites in humans are a public health problem worldwide. We conducted a hospital based questionnaire survey and described the incidence and risk factors for human dog bites in Bhutan. We also estimated the human death rate attributable to rabies in two rabies endemic areas of south Bhutan. Our study shows that dog bites incidents in humans are common in the survey areas. There were significant gender and age differences in bite incidents; males and the children are affected the most. The majority of the victims were bitten by stray dogs, increasing the risk of rabies infection if not treated in time. Our decision tree model predicted 2.23 (95% CI: 1.20–3.59) human deaths from rabies/year, equivalent to an annual incidence of 4.67 (95% CI: 2.53–7.53) deaths/100,000 in the two rabies endemic areas of south Bhutan. In the absence of post exposure prophylaxis, the model predicted 19.24 (95% CI: 13.69–25.14) deaths/year in these two areas. The public should be encouraged to visit hospitals for post exposure prophylaxis following dog bite injury in south Bhutan

Burden of childhood-onset arthritis

Juvenile arthritis comprises a variety of chronic inflammatory diseases causing erosive arthritis in children, often progressing to disability. These children experience functional impairment due to joint and back pain, heel pain, swelling of joints and morning stiffness, contractures, pain, and anterior uveitis leading to blindness. As children who have juvenile arthritis reach adulthood, they face possible continuing disease activity, medication-associated morbidity, and life-long disability and risk for emotional and social dysfunction. In this article we will review the burden of juvenile arthritis for the patient and society and focus on the following areas: patient disability; visual outcome; other medical complications; physical activity; impact on HRQOL; emotional impact; pain and coping; ambulatory visits, hospitalizations and mortality; economic impact; burden on caregivers; transition issues; educational occupational outcomes, and sexuality

Reliability of case definitions for public health surveillance assessed by Round-Robin test methodology

BACKGROUND: Case definitions have been recognized to be important elements of public health surveillance systems. They are to assure comparability and consistency of surveillance data and have crucial impact on the sensitivity and the positive predictive value of a surveillance system. The reliability of case definitions has rarely been investigated systematically. METHODS: We conducted a Round-Robin test by asking all 425 local health departments (LHD) and the 16 state health departments (SHD) in Germany to classify a selection of 68 case examples using case definitions. By multivariate analysis we investigated factors linked to classification agreement with a gold standard, which was defined by an expert panel. RESULTS: A total of 7870 classifications were done by 396 LHD (93%) and all SHD. Reporting sensitivity was 90.0%, positive predictive value 76.6%. Polio case examples had the lowest reporting precision, salmonellosis case examples the highest (OR = 0.008; CI: 0.005–0.013). Case definitions with a check-list format of clinical criteria resulted in higher reporting precision than case definitions with a narrative description (OR = 3.08; CI: 2.47–3.83). Reporting precision was higher among SHD compared to LHD (OR = 1.52; CI: 1.14–2.02). CONCLUSION: Our findings led to a systematic revision of the German case definitions and build the basis for general recommendations for the creation of case definitions. These include, among others, that testable yes/no criteria in a check-list format is likely to improve reliability, and that software used for data transmission should be designed in strict accordance with the case definitions. The findings of this study are largely applicable to case definitions in many other countries or international networks as they share the same structural and editorial characteristics of the case definitions evaluated in this study before their revision

Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses: The PRISMA Statement

David Moher and colleagues introduce PRISMA, an update of the QUOROM guidelines for reporting systematic reviews and meta-analyse

Development and evaluation of a quality score for abstracts

BACKGROUND: The evaluation of abstracts for scientific meetings has been shown to suffer from poor inter observer reliability. A measure was developed to assess the formal quality of abstract submissions in a standardized way. METHODS: Item selection was based on scoring systems for full reports, taking into account published guidelines for structured abstracts. Interrater agreement was examined using a random sample of submissions to the American Gastroenterological Association, stratified for research type (n = 100, 1992–1995). For construct validity, the association of formal quality with acceptance for presentation was examined. A questionnaire to expert reviewers evaluated sensibility items, such as ease of use and comprehensiveness. RESULTS: The index comprised 19 items. The summary quality scores showed good interrater agreement (intra class coefficient 0.60 – 0.81). Good abstract quality was associated with abstract acceptance for presentation at the meeting. The instrument was found to be acceptable by expert reviewers. CONCLUSION: A quality index was developed for the evaluation of scientific meeting abstracts which was shown to be reliable, valid and useful

Intradialytic hyperalimentation as adjuvant support in pregnant hemodialysis patients: case report and review of the literature

Pregnancy in chronic dialysis patients is unusual and associated with many complications. Infants are often born both prematurely and small for gestational age. We report a case of a 36-year-old diabetic hemodialysis patient G4P3 who had prolonged hyperemesis gravidarum, for whom intradialytic parenteral nutrition (IDPN) was started at week 14 and continued throughout her pregnancy. She delivered a 3.5-kg baby girl at the 36th week of gestation by cesarean section. We discuss the use of IDPN as adjunct therapy for pregnant dialysis patients

Redundant Notch1 and Notch2 Signaling Is Necessary for IFNγ Secretion by T Helper 1 Cells During Infection with Leishmania major

The protective immune response to intracellular parasites involves in most cases the differentiation of IFNγ-secreting CD4+ T helper (Th) 1 cells. Notch receptors regulate cell differentiation during development but their implication in the polarization of peripheral CD4+ T helper 1 cells is not well understood. Of the four Notch receptors, only Notch1 (N1) and Notch2 (N2) are expressed on activated CD4+ T cells. To investigate the role of Notch in Th1 cell differentiation following parasite infection, mice with T cell-specific gene ablation of N1, N2 or both (N1N2ΔCD4Cre) were infected with the protozoan parasite Leishmania major. N1N2ΔCD4Cre mice, on the C57BL/6 L. major-resistant genetic background, developed unhealing lesions and uncontrolled parasitemia. Susceptibility correlated with impaired secretion of IFNγ by draining lymph node CD4+ T cells and increased secretion of the IL-5 and IL-13 Th2 cytokines. Mice with single inactivation of N1 or N2 in their T cells were resistant to infection and developed a protective Th1 immune response, showing that CD4+ T cell expression of N1 or N2 is redundant in driving Th1 differentiation. Furthermore, we show that Notch signaling is required for the secretion of IFNγ by Th1 cells. This effect is independent of CSL/RBP-Jκ, the major effector of Notch receptors, since L. major-infected mice with a RBP-Jκ deletion in their T cells were able to develop IFNγ-secreting Th1 cells, kill parasites and heal their lesions. Collectively, we demonstrate here a crucial role for RBP-Jκ-independent Notch signaling in the differentiation of a functional Th1 immune response following L. major infection

In-home solid fuel use and cardiovascular disease: a cross-sectional analysis of the Shanghai Putuo study

Background: Although recent research evidence suggests an association between household air pollution from solid fuel use, such as coal or biomass, and cardiovascular events such as hypertension, little epidemiologic data are available concerning such exposure effects on cardiovascular endpoints other than hypertension. We explored the association between in-home solid fuel use and self-reported diagnoses of cardiovascular endpoints, such as hypertension, coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, and diabetes. Methods: We analyzed 14,068 Chinese adults, aged 18 years and older. Odds ratios (OR) and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using logistic regression models for the risk of each outcome after adjusting for potential confounders. Results: The use of solid fuel in home was significantly associated with an increased risk for hypertension (OR 1.70, 95% CI 1.40 to 2.07), CHD (OR 2.58, 95% CI 1.53 to 4.32), and diabetes (OR 2.48, 95% CI 1.59 to 3.86), after adjusting for potential confounders. Compared with individuals in the lowest tertile of the duration of solid fuel exposure, those in the highest tertile of the duration of solid fuel exposure had an increased odds of hypertension (OR 1.73, 95% CI 1.45 to 2.06), stroke (OR 1.87, 95% CI 1.03 to 3.38), and diabetes (OR 3.18, 95% CI 2.11 to 4.78). Conclusions: Our data suggest that in-home solid fuel exposure maybe associated with increased risk for hypertension, CHD, stroke, and diabetes in the Chinese adult population. Further large-scale longitudinal studies are warranted to confirm these findings