Bayesian Hierarchical Models Combining Different Study Types and Adjusting for Covariate Imbalances: A Simulation Study to Assess Model Performance

BACKGROUND: Bayesian hierarchical models have been proposed to combine evidence from different types of study designs. However, when combining evidence from randomised and non-randomised controlled studies, imbalances in patient characteristics between study arms may bias the results. The objective of this study was to assess the performance of a proposed Bayesian approach to adjust for imbalances in patient level covariates when combining evidence from both types of study designs. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Simulation techniques, in which the truth is known, were used to generate sets of data for randomised and non-randomised studies. Covariate imbalances between study arms were introduced in the non-randomised studies. The performance of the Bayesian hierarchical model adjusted for imbalances was assessed in terms of bias. The data were also modelled using three other Bayesian approaches for synthesising evidence from randomised and non-randomised studies. The simulations considered six scenarios aimed at assessing the sensitivity of the results to changes in the impact of the imbalances and the relative number and size of studies of each type. For all six scenarios considered, the Bayesian hierarchical model adjusted for differences within studies gave results that were unbiased and closest to the true value compared to the other models. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Where informed health care decision making requires the synthesis of evidence from randomised and non-randomised study designs, the proposed hierarchical Bayesian method adjusted for differences in patient characteristics between study arms may facilitate the optimal use of all available evidence leading to unbiased results compared to unadjusted analyses

The importance of adjusting for potential confounders in Bayesian hierarchical models synthesising evidence from randomised and non-randomised studies: an application comparing treatments for abdominal aortic aneurysms

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Informing health care decision making may necessitate the synthesis of evidence from different study designs (e.g., randomised controlled trials, non-randomised/observational studies). Methods for synthesising different types of studies have been proposed, but their routine use requires development of approaches to adjust for potential biases, especially among non-randomised studies. The objective of this study was to extend a published Bayesian hierarchical model to adjust for bias due to confounding in synthesising evidence from studies with different designs.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In this new methodological approach, study estimates were adjusted for potential confounders using differences in patient characteristics (e.g., age) between study arms. The new model was applied to synthesise evidence from randomised and non-randomised studies from a published review comparing treatments for abdominal aortic aneurysms. We compared the results of the Bayesian hierarchical model adjusted for differences in study arms with: 1) unadjusted results, 2) results adjusted using aggregate study values and 3) two methods for downweighting the potentially biased non-randomised studies. Sensitivity of the results to alternative prior distributions and the inclusion of additional covariates were also assessed.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In the base case analysis, the estimated odds ratio was 0.32 (0.13,0.76) for the randomised studies alone and 0.57 (0.41,0.82) for the non-randomised studies alone. The unadjusted result for the two types combined was 0.49 (0.21,0.98). Adjusted for differences between study arms, the estimated odds ratio was 0.37 (0.17,0.77), representing a shift towards the estimate for the randomised studies alone. Adjustment for aggregate values resulted in an estimate of 0.60 (0.28,1.20). The two methods used for downweighting gave odd ratios of 0.43 (0.18,0.89) and 0.35 (0.16,0.76), respectively. Point estimates were robust but credible intervals were wider when using vaguer priors.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Covariate adjustment using aggregate study values does not account for covariate imbalances between treatment arms and downweighting may not eliminate bias. Adjustment using differences in patient characteristics between arms provides a systematic way of adjusting for bias due to confounding. Within the context of a Bayesian hierarchical model, such an approach could facilitate the use of all available evidence to inform health policy decisions.</p

Evidence for an increase in cosmogenic 10Be during a geomagnetic reversal

Reversals in the geomagnetic field, which occur every few hundred thousand years, represent a dramatic change in the Earth's environment. Although there is no satisfactory theory for such reversals, it is generally accepted that the dipole field intensity decreases to <20% of its 'normal' value for a few thousand years during the change in direction. Because the galactic and solar cosmic rays which impinge on the Earth's atmosphere are charged, a significant fraction (about half) of them are deflected by the geomagnetic field. At the time of a reversal, this magnetic shielding is greatly reduced, and it has been suggested that the increased flux of high-energy particles could have effects on evolutionary or climatic processes. For example, the statistically significant coincidence in levels of some marine faunal extinctions and reversal boundaries in ocean sediments could be caused, directly or indirectly, by the decreased geomagnetic intensity during the reversal. We report here evidence in marine sediments for an increase in cosmogenic 10Be production in the Earth's atmosphere during the Brunhes-Matuyama reversal 730,000 yr ago. In addition to confirming an increase in cosmogenic isotope production, the results provide information on the magnitude and duration of the geomagnetic intensity decrease during such an event, and the depth at which remanent magnetism is acquired in marine sediments

Differential Gene Expression in the EphA4 Knockout Spinal Cord and Analysis of the Inflammatory Response Following Spinal Cord Injury

Mice lacking the axon guidance molecule EphA4 have been shown to exhibit extensive axonal regeneration and functional recovery following spinal cord injury. To assess mechanisms by which EphA4 may modify the response to neural injury a microarray was performed on spinal cord tissue from mice with spinal cord injury and sham injured controls. RNA was purified from spinal cords of adult EphA4 knockout and wild-type mice four days following lumbar spinal cord hemisection or laminectomy only and was hybridised to Affymetrix All-Exon Array 1.0 GeneChips™. While subsequent analyses indicated that several pathways were altered in EphA4 knockout mice, of particular interest was the attenuated expression of a number of inflammatory genes, including Arginase 1, expression of which was lower in injured EphA4 knockout compared to wild-type mice. Immunohistological analyses of different cellular components of the immune response were then performed in injured EphA4 knockout and wildtype spinal cords. While numbers of infiltrating CD3+ T cells were low in the hemisection model, a robust CD11b+ macrophage/microglial response was observed post-injury. There was no difference in the overall number or spread of macrophages/activated microglia in injured EphA4 knockout compared to wild-type spinal cords at 2, 4 or 14 days post-injury, however a lower proportion of Arginase-1 immunoreactive macrophages/activated microglia was observed in EphA4 knockout spinal cords at 4 days post-injury. Subtle alterations in the neuroinflammatory response in injured EphA4 knockout spinal cords may contribute to the regeneration and recovery observed in these mice following injury

Diagnosis of prostate cancer by detection of minichromosome maintenance 5 protein in urine sediments

Background: The accuracy of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing in prostate cancer detection is constrained by low sensitivity and specificity. Dysregulated expression of minichromosome maintenance (Mcm) 2–7 proteins is an early event in epithelial multistep carcinogenesis and thus MCM proteins represent powerful cancer diagnostic markers. In this study we investigate Mcm5 as a urinary biomarker for prostate cancer detection. Methods: Urine was obtained from 88 men with prostate cancer and from two control groups negative for malignancy. A strictly normal cohort included 28 men with complete, normal investigations, no urinary calculi and serum PSA <2 ng ml–1. An expanded control cohort comprised 331 men with a benign final diagnosis, regardless of PSA level. Urine was collected before and after prostate massage in the cancer patient cohort. An immunofluorometric assay was used to measure Mcm5 levels in urine sediments. Results: The Mcm5 test detected prostate cancer with 82% sensitivity (confidence interval (CI)= 72–89%) and with a specificity ranging from 73 (CI=68–78%) to 93% (CI=76–99%). Prostate massage led to increased Mcm5 signals compared with pre-massage samples (median 3440 (interquartile range (IQR) 2280 to 5220) vs 2360 (IQR <1800 to 4360); P=0.009), and was associated with significantly increased diagnostic sensitivity (82 vs 60%; P=0.012). Conclusions: Urinary Mcm5 detection seems to be a simple, accurate and noninvasive method for identifying patients with prostate cancer. Large-scale prospective trials are now required to evaluate this test in diagnosis and screening

Whole-exome sequencing uncovers frequent GNAS mutations in intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms of the pancreas

Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) is a common pancreatic cystic neoplasm that is often invasive and metastatic, resulting in a poor prognosis. Few molecular alterations unique to IPMN are known. We performed whole-exome sequencing for a primary IPMN tissue, which uncovered somatic mutations in KCNF1, DYNC1H1, PGCP, STAB1, PTPRM, PRPF8, RNASE3, SPHKAP, MLXIPL, VPS13C, PRCC, GNAS, KRAS, RBM10, RNF43, DOCK2, and CENPF. We further analyzed GNAS mutations in archival cases of 118 IPMNs and 32 pancreatic ductal adenocarcinomas (PDAs), which revealed that 48 (40.7%) of the 118 IPMNs but none of the 32 PDAs harbored GNAS mutations. G-protein alpha-subunit encoded by GNAS and its downstream targets, phosphorylated substrates of protein kinase A, were evidently expressed in IPMN; the latter was associated with neoplastic grade. These results indicate that GNAS mutations are common and specific for IPMN, and activation of G-protein signaling appears to play a pivotal role in IPMN

Temporal and effort cost decision-making in healthy individuals with subclinical psychotic symptoms

The value people attribute to rewards is influenced both by the time and the effort required to obtain them. Impairments in these computations are described in patients with schizophrenia and appear associated with negative symptom severity. This study investigated whether deficits in temporal and effort cost computations can be observed in individuals with subclinical psychotic symptoms (PS) to determine if this dysfunction is already present in a potentially pre-psychotic period. Sixty participants, divided into three groups based on the severity of PS (high, medium and low), performed two temporal discounting tasks with food and money and a concurrent schedule task, in which the effort to obtain food increased over time. We observed that in high PS participants the discounting rate appeared linear and flatter than that exhibited by participants with medium and low PS, especially with food. In the concurrent task, compared to those with low PS, participants with high PS exerted tendentially less effort to obtain snacks only when the required effort was high. Participants exerting less effort in the higher effort condition were those with higher negative symptoms. These results suggest that aberrant temporal and effort cost computations might be present in individuals with subclinical PS and therefore could represent a vulnerability marker for psychosis

Functional similarities between pigeon \u27milk\u27 and mammalian milk : induction of immune gene expression and modification of the microbiota

Pigeon &lsquo;milk&rsquo; and mammalian milk have functional similarities in terms of nutritional benefit and delivery of immunoglobulins to the young. Mammalian milk has been clearly shown to aid in the development of the immune system and microbiota of the young, but similar effects have not yet been attributed to pigeon &lsquo;milk&rsquo;. Therefore, using a chicken model, we investigated the effect of pigeon &lsquo;milk&rsquo; on immune gene expression in the Gut Associated Lymphoid Tissue (GALT) and on the composition of the caecal microbiota. Chickens fed pigeon &lsquo;milk&rsquo; had a faster rate of growth and a better feed conversion ratio than control chickens. There was significantly enhanced expression of immune-related gene pathways and interferon-stimulated genes in the GALT of pigeon &lsquo;milk&rsquo;-fed chickens. These pathways include the innate immune response, regulation of cytokine production and regulation of B cell activation and proliferation. The caecal microbiota of pigeon &lsquo;milk&rsquo;-fed chickens was significantly more diverse than control chickens, and appears to be affected by prebiotics in pigeon &lsquo;milk&rsquo;, as well as being directly seeded by bacteria present in pigeon &lsquo;milk&rsquo;. Our results demonstrate that pigeon &lsquo;milk&rsquo; has further modes of action which make it functionally similar to mammalian milk. We hypothesise that pigeon &lsquo;lactation&rsquo; and mammalian lactation evolved independently but resulted in similarly functional products

Systematic review of methods used in meta-analyses where a primary outcome is an adverse or unintended event

addresses: Peninsula College of Medicine and Dentistry, St Luke's Campus, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK. [email protected]: PMCID: PMC3528446types: Journal Article; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't© 2012 Warren et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.Adverse consequences of medical interventions are a source of concern, but clinical trials may lack power to detect elevated rates of such events, while observational studies have inherent limitations. Meta-analysis allows the combination of individual studies, which can increase power and provide stronger evidence relating to adverse events. However, meta-analysis of adverse events has associated methodological challenges. The aim of this study was to systematically identify and review the methodology used in meta-analyses where a primary outcome is an adverse or unintended event, following a therapeutic intervention