Evolution: Complexity, uncertainty and innovation

Complexity science provides a general mathematical basis for evolutionary thinking. It makes us face the inherent, irreducible nature of uncertainty and the limits to knowledge and prediction. Complex, evolutionary systems work on the basis of on-going, continuous internal processes of exploration, experimentation and innovation at their underlying levels. This is acted upon by the level above, leading to a selection process on the lower levels and a probing of the stability of the level above. This could either be an organizational level above, or the potential market place. Models aimed at predicting system behaviour therefore consist of assumptions of constraints on the micro-level – and because of inertia or conformity may be approximately true for some unspecified time. However, systems without strong mechanisms of repression and conformity will evolve, innovate and change, creating new emergent structures, capabilities and characteristics. Systems with no individual freedom at their lower levels will have predictable behaviour in the short term – but will not survive in the long term. Creative, innovative, evolving systems, on the other hand, will more probably survive over longer times, but will not have predictable characteristics or behaviour. These minimal mechanisms are all that are required to explain (though not predict) the co-evolutionary processes occurring in markets, organizations, and indeed in emergent, evolutionary communities of practice. Some examples will be presented briefly

Quid pro quo:reflections on the value of problem structuring workshops

Attracting clients who are willing to invest in using a problem structuring method (PSM) can be particularly difficult for the emerging generation of modellers. There are many reasons for this, not least that the benefits of a problem structuring intervention are vague and evidence of benefits are often anecdotal for example, claims of constructing a deeper understanding of the problem or building the commitment of a group to implementing an outcome. This paper contributes to the evaluation of problem structuring methods by reflecting on the quid pro quo that a client and problem structuring modeller can enjoy from collaboration. The paper reflects on 21 cases, where Journey Making (a problem structuring method) was used with 16 organizations to help managers agree a suite of actions to tackle a complex strategic issue. The reflections are clustered around those benefits that pertain to: PSMs in general; PSMs that use computer-supported workshops; the Journey Making methodology

Myocardial energy depletion and dynamic systolic dysfunction in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy

Evidence indicates that anatomical and physiological phenotypes of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) stem from genetically mediated, inefficient cardiomyocyte energy utilization, and subsequent cellular energy depletion. However, HCM often presents clinically with normal left ventricular (LV) systolic function or hyperkinesia. If energy inefficiency is a feature of HCM, why is it not manifest as resting LV systolic dysfunction? In this Perspectives article, we focus on an idiosyncratic form of reversible systolic dysfunction provoked by LV obstruction that we have previously termed the 'lobster claw abnormality' — a mid-systolic drop in LV Doppler ejection velocities. In obstructive HCM, this drop explains the mid-systolic closure of the aortic valve, the bifid aortic pressure trace, and why patients cannot increase stroke volume with exercise. This phenomenon is characteristic of a broader phenomenon in HCM that we have termed dynamic systolic dysfunction. It underlies the development of apical aneurysms, and rare occurrence of cardiogenic shock after obstruction. We posit that dynamic systolic dysfunction is a manifestation of inefficient cardiomyocyte energy utilization. Systolic dysfunction is clinically inapparent at rest; however, it becomes overt through the mechanism of afterload mismatch when LV outflow obstruction is imposed. Energetic insufficiency is also present in nonobstructive HCM. This paradigm might suggest novel therapies. Other pathways that might be central to HCM, such as myofilament Ca2+ hypersensitivity, and enhanced late Na+ current, are discussed

Early-life gut dysbiosis linked to juvenile mortality in ostriches

Imbalances in the gut microbial community (dysbiosis) of vertebrates have been associated with several gastrointestinal and autoimmune diseases. However, it is unclear which taxa are associated with gut dysbiosis, and if particular gut regions or specific time periods during ontogeny are more susceptible. We also know very little of this process in non-model organisms, despite an increasing realization of the general importance of gut microbiota for health