Modelling informative time points: an evolutionary process approach

Real time series sometimes exhibit various types of "irregularities": missing observations, observations collected not regularly over time for practical reasons, observation times driven by the series itself, or outlying observations. However, the vast majority of methods of time series analysis are designed for regular time series only. A particular case of irregularly spaced time series is that in which the sampling procedure over time depends also on the observed values. In such situations, there is stochastic dependence between the process being modelled and the times of the observations. In this work, we propose a model in which the sampling design depends on all past history of the observed processes. Taking into account the natural temporal order underlying available data represented by a time series, then a modelling approach based on evolutionary processes seems a natural choice. We consider maximum likelihood estimation of the model parameters. Numerical studies with simulated and real data sets are performed to illustrate the benefits of this model-based approach.- The authors acknowledge Foundation FCT (FundacAo para a Ciencia e Tecnologia) as members of the research project PTDC/MAT-STA/28243/2017 and Center for Research & Development in Mathematics and Applications of Aveiro University within project UID/MAT/04106/2019

The functional head of the Cambrian radiodontan (stem-group Euarthropoda) Amplectobelua symbrachiata

© The Author(s). 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated. The attached file is the published version of the article

Targeted case finding for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease versus routine practice in primary care (TargetCOPD): a cluster-randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Many individuals with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) remain undiagnosed worldwide. Health-care organisations are implementing case-finding programmes without good evidence of which are the most effective and cost-effective approaches. We assessed the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of two alternative approaches to targeted case finding for COPD compared with routine practice. METHODS: In this cluster-randomised controlled trial, participating general practices in the West Midlands, UK, were randomly assigned (1:1), via a computer-generated block randomisation sequence, to either a targeted case-finding group or a routine care group. Eligible patients were ever-smokers aged 40-79 years without a previously recorded diagnosis of COPD. Patients in the targeted case-finding group were further randomly assigned (1:1) via their household to receive either a screening questionnaire at the general practitioner (GP) consultation (opportunistic) or a screening questionnaire at the GP consultation plus a mailed questionnaire (active). Respondents reporting relevant respiratory symptoms were invited for post-bronchodilator spirometry. Patients, clinicians, and investigators were not masked to allocation, but group allocation was concealed from the researchers who performed the spirometry assessments. Primary outcomes were the percentage of the eligible population diagnosed with COPD within 1 year (defined as post-bronchodilator forced expiratory volume in 1 s [FEV1] to forced vital capacity [FVC] ratio <0·7 in patients with symptoms or a new diagnosis on their GP record) and cost per new COPD diagnosis. Multiple logistic and Poisson regression were used to estimate effect sizes. Costs were obtained from the trial. This trial is registered with ISRCTN, number ISRCTN14930255. FINDINGS: From Aug 10, 2012, to June 22, 2014, 74 818 eligible patients from 54 diverse general practices were randomly assigned and completed the trial. At 1 year, 1278 (4%) cases of COPD were newly detected in 32 789 eligible patients in the targeted case-finding group compared with 337 (1%) cases in 42 029 patients in the routine care group (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 7·45 [95% CI 4·80-11·55], p<0·0001). The percentage of newly detected COPD cases was higher in the active case-finding group (822 [5%] of 15 378) than in the opportunistic case-finding group (370 [2%] of 15 387; adjusted OR 2·34 [2·06-2·66], p<0·0001; adjusted risk difference 2·9 per 100 patients [95% CI 2·3-3·6], p<0·0001). Active case finding was more cost-effective than opportunistic case finding (£333 vs £376 per case detected, respectively). INTERPRETATION: In this well established primary care system, routine practice identified few new cases of COPD. An active targeted approach to case finding including mailed screening questionnaires before spirometry is a cost-effective way to identify undiagnosed patients and has the potential to improve their health. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research

A productivity dashboard for hospitals: an empirical study

Health information systems are key assets in managing health units’ daily operations. Nevertheless, literature is scarce concerning information systems for increasing and managing hospital productivity. This study aims at filling such gap through an empirical research based on large Portuguese hospital. Specifically, a dashboard prototype is proposed addressing productivity indicators in areas such as assistance, hospitalization, surgery, among others. This dashboard is tuned using a design science research approach where health experts successively validate the prototype. Interviews are conducted to assess the benefits of using our proposal to manage productivity on a daily basis.info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersio

Identification of a Guanine Nucleotide Exchange Factor for Arf3, the Yeast Orthologue of Mammalian Arf6

Small G proteins of the Arf and Rab families are fundamental to the organisation and activity of intracellular membranes. One of the most well characterised of these G proteins is mammalian Arf6, a protein that participates in many cellular processes including endocytosis, actin remodelling and cell adhesion. Exchange of GDP for GTP on Arf6 is performed by a variety of guanine nucleotide exchange factors (GEFs), principally of the cytohesin (PSCD) and EFA6 (PSD) families. In this paper we describe the characterisation of a GEF for the yeast orthologue of Arf6, Arf3, which we have named Yel1 (yeast EFA6-like-1) using yeast genetics, fluorescence microscopy and in vitro nucleotide exchange assays. Yel1 appears structurally related to the EFA6 family of GEFs, having an N-terminal Sec7 domain and C-terminal PH and coiled-coil domains. We find that Yel1 is constitutively targeted to regions of polarised growth in yeast, where it co-localises with Arf3. Moreover the Sec7 domain of Yel1 is required for its membrane targeting and for that of Arf3. Finally we show that the isolated Yel1 Sec7 domain strongly stimulates nucleotide exchange activity specifically on Arf3 in vitro

Influence of oral beclomethasone dipropionate on early non-infectious pulmonary outcomes after allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation: results from two randomized trials.

Early non-infectious pulmonary complications represent a significant cause of mortality after hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT). We tested the hypothesis that oral beclomethasone dipropionate (BDP) is effective for preventing early non-infectious pulmonary complications after allogeneic HCT. We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of 120 patients, 60 in each treatment arm, to identify non-infectious and infectious pulmonary events and pulmonary function test results from all patients who participated in two randomized trials of oral BDP for treatment of acute gastrointestinal GVHD. 17-Beclomethasone monopropionate (17-BMP), the active metabolite of BDP, was evaluated in blood from the right atrium in four patients. Thirty-three of 42 (79%) placebo-treated patients experienced a decrease of the DL(CO) from pretransplant to day 80 after transplant, compared with 27 of 49 (55%) BDP-treated patients (P=0.02). In the first 200 days after randomization, there were no cases of non-infectious pulmonary complications in BDP-treated patients, vs four cases among placebo-treated patients (P=0.04). Levels of 17-BMP were detected in atrial blood at steady state. Delivery of a potent glucocorticoid such as 17-BMP to the pulmonary artery after oral dosing of BDP may be useful in modulating pulmonary inflammation and preventing the development of non-infectious pulmonary complications after allogeneic HCT.Bone Marrow Transplantation advance online publication, 29 June 2009; doi:10.1038/bmt.2009.129

Relationship between Type-D personality, physical activity behaviour and climacteric symptoms.

A number of factors have been identified which might influence the variation observed in climacteric symptoms in peri- and post-menopausal women. We examined the role of the distressed or Type-D personality and mode of physical activity or exercise on the climacteric symptoms experienced by peri- or post-menopausal women

Depression and physical activity in a sample of nigerian adolescents: levels, relationships and predictors

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Physical inactivity is related to many morbidities but the evidence of its link with depression in adolescents needs further investigation in view of the existing conflicting reports.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The data for this cross-sectional study were collected from 1,100 Nigerian adolescents aged 12-17 years. Depressive symptomatology and physical activity were assessed using the Children's Depression Inventory (CDI) and the Physical Activity Questionnaire-Adolescent version (PAQ-A) respectively. Independent t tests, Pearson's Moment Correlation and Multi-level logistic regression analyses for individual and school area influences were carried out on the data at p < 0.05.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The mean age of the participants was 15.20 ± 1.435 years. The prevalence of mild to moderate depression was 23.8%, definite depression was 5.7% and low physical activity was 53.8%. More severe depressive symptoms were linked with lower levels of physical activity (r = -0.82, p < 0.001) and moderate physical activity was linked with reduced risk of depressive symptoms (OR = 0.42, 95% CI = 0.29-0.71). The odds of having depressive symptoms were higher in older adolescents (OR = 2.16, 95% CI = 1.81-3.44) and in females (OR = 2.92, 95% CI = 1.82-3.54). Females had a higher risk of low physical activity than male adolescents (OR = 2.91, 95% CI = 1.51-4.26). Being in Senior Secondary class three was a significant predictor of depressive symptoms (OR = 3.4, 95% CI = 2.55-4.37) and low physical activity.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>A sizable burden of depression and low physical activity existed among the studied adolescents and these were linked to both individual and school factors. Future studies should examine the effects of physical activity among clinical samples of adolescents with depression.</p

Childhood emotional problems and self-perceptions predict weight gain in a longitudinal regression model

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Obesity and weight gain are correlated with psychological ill health. We predicted that childhood emotional problems and self-perceptions predict weight gain into adulthood.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Data on around 6,500 individuals was taken from the 1970 Birth Cohort Study. This sample was a representative sample of individuals born in the UK in one week in 1970. Body mass index was measured by a trained nurse at the age of 10 years, and self-reported at age 30 years. Childhood emotional problems were indexed using the Rutter B scale and self-report. Self-esteem was measured using the LAWSEQ questionnaire, whilst the CARALOC scale was used to measure locus of control.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Controlling for childhood body mass index, parental body mass index, and social class, childhood emotional problems as measured by the Rutter scale predicted weight gain in women only (least squares regression <it>N </it>= 3,359; coefficient 0.004; <it>P </it>= 0.032). Using the same methods, childhood self-esteem predicted weight gain in both men and women (<it>N </it>= 6,526; coefficient 0.023; <it>P </it>< 0.001), although the effect was stronger in women. An external locus of control predicted weight gain in both men and women (<it>N </it>= 6,522; coefficient 0.022; <it>P </it>< 0.001).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Emotional problems, low self-esteem and an external locus of control in childhood predict weight gain into adulthood. This has important clinical implications as it highlights a direction for early intervention strategies that may contribute to efforts to combat the current obesity epidemic.</p