Product renovation and shared ownership: sustainable routes to satisfying the world's growing demand for goods

It has been estimated that by 2030 the number of people who are wealthy enough to be considered as middle class consumers will have tripled. This will have a dramatic impact on the demands for primary materials and energy. Much work has been carried out on sustainable ways of meeting the World’s energy demands and some work has been carried out on the sustainable production and consumption of goods. It has been estimated that with improvements in design and manufacturing it is possible to reduce the primary material requirements by 30% to produce the current demand for goods. Whilst this is a crucial step on the production side, there will still be a doubling of primary material requirements by the end of the century because of an absolute rise in demand for goods and services. It is therefore clear that the consumption of products must also be explored. This is a key areas of research for the UK INDEMAND centre, which is investigating ways of reducing the UK’s industrial energy demand and demand for energy intensive materials. Our ongoing work shows that two strategies would result in considerable reductions in the demand for primary materials: product longevity and using goods more intensively (which may requires increased durability). Product longevity and durability are not new ideas, but ones that can be applied across a raft of goods as methods of reducing the consumption of materials. With long life products there is a potential risk of outdated design and obsolescence, consequently there is a need to ensure upgradability and adaptability are incorporated at the design stage. If products last longer, then the production of new products can be diverted to emerging markets rather than the market for replacement goods. There are many goods which are only used occasionally; these goods do not normally wear out. The total demand for such could be drastically reduced if they were shared with other people. Sharing of goods has traditionally been conducted between friends or by hiring equipment. The use of modern communication systems and social media could enable the development of sharing co-ops and swap spaces that will increase the utilisation of goods and hence reduce the demand for new goods. This could also increase access to a range of goods for those on low incomes. From a series of workshops it has been found that the principal challenges are sociological rather than technological. This paper contains a discussion of these challenges and explores possible futures where these two strategies have been adopted. In addition, the barriers and opportunities that these strategies offer for consumers and businesses are identified, and areas where government policy could be instigated to bring about change are highlighted

Charged Particle Production in Proton-, Deuteron-, Oxygen- and Sulphur-Nucleus Collisions at 200 GeV per Nucleon

The transverse momentum and rapidity distributions of net protons and negatively charged hadrons have been measured for minimum bias proton-nucleus and deuteron-gold interactions, as well as central oxygen-gold and sulphur-nucleus collisions at 200 GeV per nucleon. The rapidity density of net protons at midrapidity in central nucleus-nucleus collisions increases both with target mass for sulphur projectiles and with the projectile mass for a gold target. The shape of the rapidity distributions of net protons forward of midrapidity for d+Au and central S+Au collisions is similar. The average rapidity loss is larger than 2 units of rapidity for reactions with the gold target. The transverse momentum spectra of net protons for all reactions can be described by a thermal distribution with `temperatures' between 145 +- 11 MeV (p+S interactions) and 244 +- 43 MeV (central S+Au collisions). The multiplicity of negatively charged hadrons increases with the mass of the colliding system. The shape of the transverse momentum spectra of negatively charged hadrons changes from minimum bias p+p and p+S interactions to p+Au and central nucleus-nucleus collisions. The mean transverse momentum is almost constant in the vicinity of midrapidity and shows little variation with the target and projectile masses. The average number of produced negatively charged hadrons per participant baryon increases slightly from p+p, p+A to central S+S,Ag collisions.Comment: 47 pages, submitted to Z. Phys.

Hospitalizations during the last months of life of nursing home residents: a retrospective cohort study from Germany

BACKGROUND: To describe hospitalisations of nursing home (NH) residents in Germany during their last months of life. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study on 792 NH residents in the Rhine-Neckar region in South-West Germany, newly institutionalized in the year 2000, who died until the study end (December 2001). Baseline variables were derived from a standardized medical examination routinely conducted by the medical service of the health care insurance plans in Germany. Information on hospitalisations and deaths was extracted form records of the pertinent health insurance plans. RESULTS: NH residents who died after NH stay of more than 1 year spent 5.8% of their last year of life in hospitals. Relative time spent in hospitals increased from 5.2% twelve months before death (N = 139 persons) to 24.1% in their last week of life (N = 769 persons). No major differences could be observed concerning age, gender or duration of stay in NH. Overall, 229 persons (28.9%) died in hospital. Among these, the last hospital stay lasted less than 3 days for 76 persons (31.9%). Another 25 persons (3.2%) died within three days after hospital discharge. CONCLUSION: Our study indicates that proximity of death is the most important driver of health care utilization among NH residents. The relation of age or gender to health care expenditures seem to be weak once time to death is controlled for. Duration of NH stay does not markedly change rates of hospitalisation during the last months of life

Permanence of the information given during oncogenetic counseling to persons at familial risk of breast/ovarian and/or colon cancer

How long counselees retain the information given during their genetic consultation is of major importance. To address this issue, we conducted a survey among the 3500 families that have been offered genetic counseling at our Center since 1988. In August 2007, we mailed a questionnaire to a representative subset of 579 persons belonging to breast/ovarian or colon cancer families seen in the last 10 years, either carrying an identified mutation or not. Targeted topics included the meaning of hereditary predisposition, the medical prevention related to the familial risk, the steps to undertake for a new family member to enter the genetic testing program and general knowledge of hereditary predisposition to cancer. A total of 91 randomized non-respondents were sent a second, more inciting letter, in order to assess any non-response bias. Overall, 337 questionnaires were collected: response rate was 58%. Standardized average knowledge was 7.28±1.52 of 10. Scores were lowest concerning medical prevention. The level of knowledge decreased with age (P<10−6), but increased with educational level (P<10−5) and mutation status (P=0.01). Surprisingly, no erosion of patients' knowledge over the time was observed (P=0.41). Among persons at hereditary risk of colon cancer, the level of knowledge tended to improve with time, in contrast to the breast/ovarian group (P=0.017). Among persons with a familial risk of breast/ovarian or colon cancer, a renewal of oncogenetic counseling does not seem necessary to maintain the level of specific knowledge. Measures to help patients follow their medical prevention, as organizing or checking their medical examinations, seem indicated

Baseline hospital performance and the impact of medical emergency teams: Modelling vs. conventional subgroup analysis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>To compare two approaches to the statistical analysis of the relationship between the baseline incidence of adverse events and the effect of medical emergency teams (METs).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Using data from a cluster randomized controlled trial (the MERIT study), we analysed the relationship between the baseline incidence of adverse events and its change from baseline to the MET activation phase using quadratic modelling techniques. We compared the findings with those obtained with conventional subgroup analysis.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Using linear and quadratic modelling techniques, we found that each unit increase in the baseline incidence of adverse events in MET hospitals was associated with a 0.59 unit subsequent reduction in adverse events (95%CI: 0.33 to 0.86) after MET implementation and activation. This applied to cardiac arrests (0.74; 95%CI: 0.52 to 0.95), unplanned ICU admissions (0.56; 95%CI: 0.26 to 0.85) and unexpected deaths (0.68; 95%CI: 0.45 to 0.90). Control hospitals showed a similar reduction only for cardiac arrests (0.95; 95%CI: 0.56 to 1.32). Comparison using conventional subgroup analysis, on the other hand, detected no significant difference between MET and control hospitals.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our study showed that, in the MERIT study, when there was dependence of treatment effect on baseline performance, an approach based on regression modelling helped illustrate the nature and magnitude of such dependence while sub-group analysis did not. The ability to assess the nature and magnitude of such dependence may have policy implications. Regression technique may thus prove useful in analysing data when there is a conditional treatment effect.</p

The Red Sea, Coastal Landscapes, and Hominin Dispersals

This chapter provides a critical assessment of environment, landscape and resources in the Red Sea region over the past five million years in relation to archaeological evidence of hominin settlement, and of current hypotheses about the role of the region as a pathway or obstacle to population dispersals between Africa and Asia and the possible significance of coastal colonization. The discussion assesses the impact of factors such as topography and the distribution of resources on land and on the seacoast, taking account of geographical variation and changes in geology, sea levels and palaeoclimate. The merits of northern and southern routes of movement at either end of the Red Sea are compared. All the evidence indicates that there has been no land connection at the southern end since the beginning of the Pliocene period, but that short sea crossings would have been possible at lowest sea-level stands with little or no technical aids. More important than the possibilities of crossing the southern channel is the nature of the resources available in the adjacent coastal zones. There were many climatic episodes wetter than today, and during these periods water draining from the Arabian escarpment provided productive conditions for large mammals and human populations in coastal regions and eastwards into the desert. During drier episodes the coastal region would have provided important refugia both in upland areas and on the emerged shelves exposed by lowered sea level, especially in the southern sector and on both sides of the Red Sea. Marine resources may have offered an added advantage in coastal areas, but evidence for their exploitation is very limited, and their role has been over-exaggerated in hypotheses of coastal colonization

Strongly magnetized pulsars: explosive events and evolution

Well before the radio discovery of pulsars offered the first observational confirmation for their existence (Hewish et al., 1968), it had been suggested that neutron stars might be endowed with very strong magnetic fields of $10^{10}$-$10^{14}$G (Hoyle et al., 1964; Pacini, 1967). It is because of their magnetic fields that these otherwise small ed inert, cooling dead stars emit radio pulses and shine in various part of the electromagnetic spectrum. But the presence of a strong magnetic field has more subtle and sometimes dramatic consequences: In the last decades of observations indeed, evidence mounted that it is likely the magnetic field that makes of an isolated neutron star what it is among the different observational manifestations in which they come. The contribution of the magnetic field to the energy budget of the neutron star can be comparable or even exceed the available kinetic energy. The most magnetised neutron stars in particular, the magnetars, exhibit an amazing assortment of explosive events, underlining the importance of their magnetic field in their lives. In this chapter we review the recent observational and theoretical achievements, which not only confirmed the importance of the magnetic field in the evolution of neutron stars, but also provide a promising unification scheme for the different observational manifestations in which they appear. We focus on the role of their magnetic field as an energy source behind their persistent emission, but also its critical role in explosive events.Comment: Review commissioned for publication in the White Book of "NewCompStar" European COST Action MP1304, 43 pages, 8 figure

Disability in young adults following major trauma: 5 year follow up of survivors

BACKGROUND: Injuries are a major cause of mortality and morbidity in young people. Despite this, the long-term consequences for young survivors of severe injury are relatively unexplored. METHODS: Population based cohort study involving 5 year post injury structured interview of all cases of major trauma (Injury Severity Score > 15) identified retrospectively for 12 month period (1988 to 1989) within former Yorkshire Health Authority area of the United Kingdom. RESULTS: 125 individuals aged 11–24 years at time of injury were identified. Of these, 109 (87%) were interviewed. Only 20% (95% CI 14–29%) of those interviewed reported no disability. Mean Office of Population Census and Surveys (OPCS) disability score of the remainder was 7.5 (median 5.8, range 0.5 to 19.4). The most commonly encountered areas of disability were behaviour (54%, 95% CI 45–63%), intellectual functioning (39%, 95% CI 31–49%) and locomotion (29%, 95% CI 22–39%). Many respondents reported that their daily lives were adversely affected by their health problems for example, causing problems with work, 54% (95% CI 45–63%), or looking after the home, 28% (95% CI 21–38%). Higher OPCS scores were usually but not always associated with greater impact on daily activities. The burden of caring responsibilities fell largely on informal carers. 51% (95% CI 42–61%) of those interviewed would have liked additional help to cope with their injury and disability. CONCLUSION: The study has revealed significant disability amongst a cohort of young people 5 years post severe injury. Whilst many of these young people were coping well with the consequences of their injuries, others reported continuing problems with the activities of daily life. The factors underpinning the young people's differing experiences and social outcome should be explored

GP-initiated preconception counselling in a randomised controlled trial does not induce anxiety

BACKGROUND: Preconception counselling (PCC) can reduce adverse pregnancy outcome by addressing risk factors prior to pregnancy. This study explores whether anxiety is induced in women either by the offer of PCC or by participation with GP-initiated PCC. METHODS: Randomised trial of usual care versus GP-initiated PCC for women aged 18–40, in 54 GP practices in the Netherlands. Women completed the six-item Spielberger State Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI) before PCC (STAI-1) and after (STAI-2). After pregnancy women completed a STAI focusing on the first trimester of pregnancy (STAI-3). RESULTS: The mean STAI-1-score (n = 466) was 36.4 (95% CI 35.4 – 37.3). Following PCC there was an average decrease of 3.6 points in anxiety-levels (95% CI, 2.4 – 4.8). Mean scores of the STAI-3 were 38.5 (95% CI 37.7 – 39.3) in the control group (n = 1090) and 38.7 (95% CI 37.9 – 39.5) in the intervention group (n = 1186). CONCLUSION: PCC from one's own GP reduced anxiety after participation, without leading to an increase in anxiety among the intervention group during pregnancy. We therefore conclude that GPs can offer PCC to the general population without fear of causing anxiety. Trial Registration: ISRCTN5394291

Integration of modeling and simulation into hospital-based decision support systems guiding pediatric pharmacotherapy

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Decision analysis in hospital-based settings is becoming more common place. The application of modeling and simulation approaches has likewise become more prevalent in order to support decision analytics. With respect to clinical decision making at the level of the patient, modeling and simulation approaches have been used to study and forecast treatment options, examine and rate caregiver performance and assign resources (staffing, beds, patient throughput). There us a great need to facilitate pharmacotherapeutic decision making in pediatrics given the often limited data available to guide dosing and manage patient response. We have employed nonlinear mixed effect models and Bayesian forecasting algorithms coupled with data summary and visualization tools to create drug-specific decision support systems that utilize individualized patient data from our electronic medical records systems.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic nonlinear mixed-effect models of specific drugs are generated based on historical data in relevant pediatric populations or from adults when no pediatric data is available. These models are re-executed with individual patient data allowing for patient-specific guidance via a Bayesian forecasting approach. The models are called and executed in an interactive manner through our web-based dashboard environment which interfaces to the hospital's electronic medical records system.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The methotrexate dashboard utilizes a two-compartment, population-based, PK mixed-effect model to project patient response to specific dosing events. Projected plasma concentrations are viewable against protocol-specific nomograms to provide dosing guidance for potential rescue therapy with leucovorin. These data are also viewable against common biomarkers used to assess patient safety (e.g., vital signs and plasma creatinine levels). As additional data become available via therapeutic drug monitoring, the model is re-executed and projections are revised.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The management of pediatric pharmacotherapy can be greatly enhanced via the immediate feedback provided by decision analytics which incorporate the current, best-available knowledge pertaining to dose-exposure and exposure-response relationships, especially for narrow therapeutic agents that are difficult to manage.</p