30 research outputs found

    Food web persistence is enhanced by non-trophic interactions.

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    The strength of interspecific interactions is often proposed to affect food web stability, with weaker interactions increasing the persistence of species, and food webs as a whole. However, the mechanisms that modify interaction strengths, and their effects on food web persistence are not fully understood. Using food webs containing different combinations of predator, prey, and nonprey species, we investigated how predation risk of susceptible prey is affected by the presence of species not directly trophically linked to either predators or prey. We predicted that indirect alterations to the strength of trophic interactions translate to changes in persistence time of extinction-prone species. We assembled interaction webs of protist consumers and turbellarian predators with eight different combinations of prey, predators and nonprey species, and recorded abundances for over 130 prey generations. Persistence of predation-susceptible species was increased by the presence of nonprey. Furthermore, multiple nonprey species acted synergistically to increase prey persistence, such that persistence was greater than would be predicted from the dynamics of simpler food webs. We also found evidence suggesting increased food web complexity may weaken interspecific competition, increasing persistence of poorer competitors. Our results demonstrate that persistence times in complex food webs cannot be predicted from the dynamics of simplified systems, and that species not directly involved in consumptive interactions likely play key roles in maintaining persistence. Global species diversity is currently declining at an unprecedented rate and our findings reveal that concurrent loss of species that modify trophic interactions may have unpredictable consequences for food web stability

    Flexible modelling of spatial variation in agricultural field trials with the R package INLA

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    The objective of this paper was to fit different established spatial models for analysing agricultural field trials using the open-source R package INLA. Spatial variation is common in field trials, and accounting for it increases the accuracy of estimated genetic effects. However, this is still hindered by the lack of available software implementations. We compare some established spatial models and show possibilities for flexible modelling with respect to field trial design and joint modelling over multiple years and locations. We use a Bayesian framework and for statistical inference the integrated nested Laplace approximations (INLA) implemented in the R package INLA. The spatial models we use are the well-known independent row and column effects, separable first-order autoregressive ( AR1⊗AR1 ) models and a Gaussian random field (Matérn) model that is approximated via the stochastic partial differential equation approach. The Matérn model can accommodate flexible field trial designs and yields interpretable parameters. We test the models in a simulation study imitating a wheat breeding programme with different levels of spatial variation, with and without genome-wide markers and with combining data over two locations, modelling spatial and genetic effects jointly. The results show comparable predictive performance for both the AR1⊗AR1 and the Matérn models. We also present an example of fitting the models to a real wheat breeding data and simulated tree breeding data with the Nelder wheel design to show the flexibility of the Matérn model and the R package INLA

    Myocardial Injury After Noncardiac Surgery (MINS) in Vascular Surgical Patients: A Prospective Observational Cohort Study.

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    OBJECTIVE: To determine the prognostic relevance, clinical characteristics, and 30-day outcomes associated with myocardial injury after noncardiac surgery (MINS) in vascular surgical patients. BACKGROUND: MINS has been independently associated with 30-day mortality after noncardiac surgery. The characteristics and prognostic importance of MINS in vascular surgery patients are poorly described. METHODS: This was an international prospective cohort study of 15,102 noncardiac surgery patients 45 years or older, of whom 502 patients underwent vascular surgery. All patients had fourth-generation plasma troponin T (TnT) concentrations measured during the first 3 postoperative days. MINS was defined as a TnT of 0.03 ng/mL of higher secondary to ischemia. The objectives of the present study were to determine (i) if MINS is prognostically important in vascular surgical patients, (ii) the clinical characteristics of vascular surgery patients with and without MINS, (iii) the 30-day outcomes for vascular surgery patients with and without MINS, and (iv) the proportion of MINS that probably would have gone undetected without routine troponin monitoring. RESULTS: The incidence of MINS in the vascular surgery patients was 19.1% (95% confidence interval (CI), 15.7%-22.6%). 30-day all-cause mortality in the vascular cohort was 12.5% (95% CI 7.3%-20.6%) in patients with MINS compared with 1.5% (95% CI 0.7%-3.2%) in patients without MINS (P < 0.001). MINS was independently associated with 30-day mortality in vascular patients (odds ratio, 9.48; 95% CI, 3.46-25.96). The 30-day mortality was similar in MINS patients with (15.0%; 95% CI, 7.1-29.1) and without an ischemic feature (12.2%; 95% CI, 5.3-25.5, P = 0.76). The proportion of vascular surgery patients who suffered MINS without overt evidence of myocardial ischemia was 74.1% (95% CI, 63.6-82.4). CONCLUSIONS: Approximately 1 in 5 patients experienced MINS after vascular surgery. MINS was independently associated with 30-day mortality. The majority of patients with MINS were asymptomatic and would have gone undetected without routine postoperative troponin measurement
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