Statistically derived contributions of diverse human influences to twentieth-century temperature changes

The warming of the climate system is unequivocal as evidenced by an increase in global temperatures by 0.8 °C over the past century. However, the attribution of the observed warming to human activities remains less clear, particularly because of the apparent slow-down in warming since the late 1990s. Here we analyse radiative forcing and temperature time series with state-of-the-art statistical methods to address this question without climate model simulations. We show that long-term trends in total radiative forcing and temperatures have largely been determined by atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, and modulated by other radiative factors. We identify a pronounced increase in the growth rates of both temperatures and radiative forcing around 1960, which marks the onset of sustained global warming. Our analyses also reveal a contribution of human interventions to two periods when global warming slowed down. Our statistical analysis suggests that the reduction in the emissions of ozone-depleting substances under the Montreal Protocol, as well as a reduction in methane emissions, contributed to the lower rate of warming since the 1990s. Furthermore, we identify a contribution from the two world wars and the Great Depression to the documented cooling in the mid-twentieth century, through lower carbon dioxide emissions. We conclude that reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are effective in slowing the rate of warming in the short term.F.E. acknowledges financial support from the Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnologia (http://www.conacyt.gob.mx) under grant CONACYT-310026, as well as from PASPA DGAPA of the Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico. (CONACYT-310026 - Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnologia; PASPA DGAPA of the Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico

Bridging Time Scales in Cellular Decision Making with a Stochastic Bistable Switch

Cellular transformations which involve a significant phenotypical change of the cell's state use bistable biochemical switches as underlying decision systems. In this work, we aim at linking cellular decisions taking place on a time scale of years to decades with the biochemical dynamics in signal transduction and gene regulation, occuring on a time scale of minutes to hours. We show that a stochastic bistable switch forms a viable biochemical mechanism to implement decision processes on long time scales. As a case study, the mechanism is applied to model the initiation of follicle growth in mammalian ovaries, where the physiological time scale of follicle pool depletion is on the order of the organism's lifespan. We construct a simple mathematical model for this process based on experimental evidence for the involved genetic mechanisms. Despite the underlying stochasticity, the proposed mechanism turns out to yield reliable behavior in large populations of cells subject to the considered decision process. Our model explains how the physiological time constant may emerge from the intrinsic stochasticity of the underlying gene regulatory network. Apart from ovarian follicles, the proposed mechanism may also be of relevance for other physiological systems where cells take binary decisions over a long time scale.Comment: 14 pages, 4 figure

Distinct routes of lineage development reshape the human blood hierarchy across ontogeny.

In a classical view of hematopoiesis, the various blood cell lineages arise via a hierarchical scheme starting with multipotent stem cells that become increasingly restricted in their differentiation potential through oligopotent and then unipotent progenitors. We developed a cell-sorting scheme to resolve myeloid (My), erythroid (Er), and megakaryocytic (Mk) fates from single CD34(+) cells and then mapped the progenitor hierarchy across human development. Fetal liver contained large numbers of distinct oligopotent progenitors with intermingled My, Er, and Mk fates. However, few oligopotent progenitor intermediates were present in the adult bone marrow. Instead, only two progenitor classes predominate, multipotent and unipotent, with Er-Mk lineages emerging from multipotent cells. The developmental shift to an adult "two-tier" hierarchy challenges current dogma and provides a revised framework to understand normal and disease states of human hematopoiesis.This work was supported by Postdoctoral Fellowship Awards from Canadian Institute of Health Research (CIHR) to FN and SZ. SZ is supported by (Aplastic Anemia). FN is a recipient of a scholar’s research award from the Ontario Institute of Cancer Research (OICR), through generous support from the Ontario Ministry of Research and Innovation. Research in EL laboratory is supported by a Wellcome Trust Sir Henry Dale Fellowship and core support grant from the Wellcome Trust and MRC to the Wellcome Trust – Medical Research Council Cambridge Stem Cell Institute. Work in the Dick laboratory is supported by grants from the CIHR, Canadian Cancer Society, Terry Fox Foundation, Genome Canada through the Ontario Genomics Institute, OICR with funds from the province of Ontario, a Canada Research Chair and the Ontario Ministry of Health and Long Term Care (OMOHLTC).This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from AAAS via http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.aab211

Visual attention and autistic behavior in infants with fragile X syndrome

Fragile X syndrome (FXS) is the leading known inherited cause of intellectual disability and the most common known biological cause of autism. Approximately 25% to 50% of males with FXS meet full diagnostic criteria for autism. Despite the high comorbidity between FXS and autism and the ability to diagnose FXS prenatally or at birth, no studies have examined indicators of autism in infants with FXS. The current study focused on indices of visual attention, one of the earliest and most robust behavioral indicators of autism in idiopathic (non-FXS) autism. Analyses revealed lower HR variability, shallower HR decelerations, and prolonged look durations in 12-month old infants with FXS that were correlated with severity of autistic behavior but not mental age

Algorithms and Bounds for Drawing Directed Graphs

In this paper we present a new approach to visualize directed graphs and their hierarchies that completely departs from the classical four-phase framework of Sugiyama and computes readable hierarchical visualizations that contain the complete reachability information of a graph. Additionally, our approach has the advantage that only the necessary edges are drawn in the drawing, thus reducing the visual complexity of the resulting drawing. Furthermore, most problems involved in our framework require only polynomial time. Our framework offers a suite of solutions depending upon the requirements, and it consists of only two steps: (a) the cycle removal step (if the graph contains cycles) and (b) the channel decomposition and hierarchical drawing step. Our framework does not introduce any dummy vertices and it keeps the vertices of a channel vertically aligned. The time complexity of the main drawing algorithms of our framework is $O(kn)$, where $k$ is the number of channels, typically much smaller than $n$ (the number of vertices).Comment: Appears in the Proceedings of the 26th International Symposium on Graph Drawing and Network Visualization (GD 2018

Autistic behavior in boys with fragile X syndrome: social approach and HPA-axis dysfunction

The primary goal of this study was to examine environmental and neuroendocrine factors that convey increased risk for elevated autistic behavior in boys with Fragile X syndrome (FXS). This study involves three related analyses: (1) examination of multiple dimensions of social approach behaviors and how they vary over time, (2) investigation of mean levels and modulation of salivary cortisol levels in response to social interaction, and (3) examination of the relationship of social approach and autistic behaviors to salivary cortisol. Poor social approach and elevated baseline and regulation cortisol are discernible traits that distinguish boys with FXS and ASD from boys with FXS only and from typically developing boys. In addition, blunted cortisol change is associated with increased severity of autistic behaviors only within the FXS and ASD group. Boys with FXS and ASD have distinct behavioral and neuroendocrine profiles that differentiate them from those with FXS alone and typically developing boys

hEGR1 is induced by EGF, inhibited by gefitinib in bladder cell lines and related to EGF receptor levels in bladder tumours

The effect of EGF and gefitinib on two EGFR-positive human bladder cancer cell lines has been investigated using array-based gene expression profiling. The most prominent transcript, increased up to 6.7-fold by EGF compared with controls in RT112 cells, was human early growth response protein 1 (hEGR1). This induction was prevented by gefitinib. The hEGR1 mRNA in EGF-treated samples was reduced in the presence of gefitinib, as was hEGR1 protein in cell lysates. In the RT4 cells, hEGR1 expression was halved in the presence of EGF and gefitinib in combination. In bladder tumour samples, there was a significant correlation between hEGR1 mRNA detected by RT-PCR and EGFR detected by ligand binding, (P=0.042). The induction by EGF of the hEGR1 gene, mRNA and protein in RT112 cells, and its inhibition by gefitinib, together with the detection of hEGR1 mRNA in bladder tumours, suggests that hEGR1 may be important in the EGFR growth-signalling pathway in bladder cancer and should be further investigated for its prognostic significance and as a potential therapeutic target

Brain structural covariance networks in obsessive-compulsive disorder: a graph analysis from the ENIGMA Consortium.

Brain structural covariance networks reflect covariation in morphology of different brain areas and are thought to reflect common trajectories in brain development and maturation. Large-scale investigation of structural covariance networks in obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) may provide clues to the pathophysiology of this neurodevelopmental disorder. Using T1-weighted MRI scans acquired from 1616 individuals with OCD and 1463 healthy controls across 37 datasets participating in the ENIGMA-OCD Working Group, we calculated intra-individual brain structural covariance networks (using the bilaterally-averaged values of 33 cortical surface areas, 33 cortical thickness values, and six subcortical volumes), in which edge weights were proportional to the similarity between two brain morphological features in terms of deviation from healthy controls (i.e. z-score transformed). Global networks were characterized using measures of network segregation (clustering and modularity), network integration (global efficiency), and their balance (small-worldness), and their community membership was assessed. Hub profiling of regional networks was undertaken using measures of betweenness, closeness, and eigenvector centrality. Individually calculated network measures were integrated across the 37 datasets using a meta-analytical approach. These network measures were summated across the network density range of K = 0.10-0.25 per participant, and were integrated across the 37 datasets using a meta-analytical approach. Compared with healthy controls, at a global level, the structural covariance networks of OCD showed lower clustering (P < 0.0001), lower modularity (P < 0.0001), and lower small-worldness (P = 0.017). Detection of community membership emphasized lower network segregation in OCD compared to healthy controls. At the regional level, there were lower (rank-transformed) centrality values in OCD for volume of caudate nucleus and thalamus, and surface area of paracentral cortex, indicative of altered distribution of brain hubs. Centrality of cingulate and orbito-frontal as well as other brain areas was associated with OCD illness duration, suggesting greater involvement of these brain areas with illness chronicity. In summary, the findings of this study, the largest brain structural covariance study of OCD to date, point to a less segregated organization of structural covariance networks in OCD, and reorganization of brain hubs. The segregation findings suggest a possible signature of altered brain morphometry in OCD, while the hub findings point to OCD-related alterations in trajectories of brain development and maturation, particularly in cingulate and orbitofrontal regions

Can narratives of white identity reduce opposition to immigration and support for Hard Brexit? A survey experiment

Britain’s vote to leave the European Union highlights the importance of white majority opposition to immigration. This article presents the results of a survey experiment examining whether priming an open form of ethno-nationalism based on immigrant assimilation reduces hostility to immigration and support for right-wing populism in Britain. Results show that drawing attention to the idea that assimilation leaves the ethnic majority unchanged significantly reduces hostility to immigration and support for Hard Brexit in the UK. Treatment effects are strongest among UKIP, Brexit and white working-class voters. This is arguably the first example of an experimental treatment leading to more liberal immigration policy preferences