Unprecedented climate extremes in South Africa and implications for maize production

This is the final version. Available on open access from IOP Publishing via the DOI in this recordData availability statement: Any data that support the findings of this study are included within the article.Maize is the most important crop grown in South Africa, but yields can be severely reduced by extreme high summer average temperatures and low precipitation, potentially adversely affecting both domestic consumption and regional food security exports. To help understand and manage climate risks to food security in Southern Africa it is essential to quantify the present-day likelihood and magnitude of climate extremes in South Africa’s maize-growing region and explore the potential for unprecedented climate conditions which would likely result in record low maize yields. We analyse a large ensemble of initialised climate model simulations, which provides almost 100 times as many plausible present-day summers as the equivalent observational dataset. We quantify the risk of unprecedented climate extremes affecting maize production in South Africa and examine the role of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. We find that the South African maize region is at risk of experiencing record-breaking hot, cold, dry or wet events under current climatic conditions. We find that the annual chance of unprecedented high temperatures in South Africa is approximately 4%, increasing to 62% during very strong El Niño years. We also find that the chance of exceeding the present day seasonal high temperature record has increased across the 1979-2018 period, being five times more likely now than it was in 1980. These extreme events could result in a record-breaking number of days above the optimum, or even the maximum, temperature for maize production, and lead to more severe floods or droughts. Under climate change scenarios, the magnitude and frequency of climate extremes is projected to increase meaning that the unprecedented extremes studied here could become commonplace in the future. This suggests that significant investment is needed to develop adaptations that manage the climate-related risks to food systems now and build resilience to the projected impacts of climate change.Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC

Cross‐scale intercomparison of climate change impacts simulated by regional and global hydrological models in eleven large river basins

Ideally, the results from models operating at different scales should agree in trend direction and magnitude of impacts under climate change. However, this implies that the sensitivity to climate variability and climate change is comparable for impact models designed for either scale. In this study, we compare hydrological changes simulated by 9 global and 9 regional hydrological models (HM) for 11 large river basins in all continents under reference and scenario conditions. The foci are on model validation runs, sensitivity of annual discharge to climate variability in the reference period, and sensitivity of the long-term average monthly seasonal dynamics to climate change. One major result is that the global models, mostly not calibrated against observations, often show a considerable bias in mean monthly discharge, whereas regional models show a better reproduction of reference conditions. However, the sensitivity of the two HM ensembles to climate variability is in general similar. The simulated climate change impacts in terms of long-term average monthly dynamics evaluated for HM ensemble medians and spreads show that the medians are to a certain extent comparable in some cases, but have distinct differences in other cases, and the spreads related to global models are mostly notably larger. Summarizing, this implies that global HMs are useful tools when looking at large-scale impacts of climate change and variability. Whenever impacts for a specific river basin or region are of interest, e.g. for complex water management applications, the regional-scale models calibrated and validated against observed discharge should be used

Analysis of hydrological extremes at different hydro-climatic regimes under present and future conditions.

We investigate simulated hydrological extremes (i.e., high and low flows) under the present and future climatic conditions for five river basins worldwide: the Ganges, Lena, Niger, Rhine, and Tagus. Future projections are based on five GCMs and four emission scenarios. We analyse results from the HYPE, mHM, SWIM, VIC and WaterGAP3 hydrological models calibrated and validated to simulate each river. The use of different impact models and future projections allows for an assessment of the uncertainty of future impacts. The analysis of extremes is conducted for four different time horizons: reference (1981–2010), early-century (2006–2035), mid-century (2036–2065) and end-century (2070–2099). In addition, Sen’s non-parametric estimator of slope is used to calculate the magnitude of trend in extremes, whose statistical significance is assessed by the Mann–Kendall test. Overall, the impact of climate change is more severe at the end of the century and particularly in dry regions. High flows are generally sensitive to changes in precipitation, however sensitivity varies between the basins. Finally, results show that conclusions in climate change impact studies can be highly influenced by uncertainty both in the climate and impact models, whilst the sensitivity to climate modelling uncertainty becoming greater than hydrological model uncertainty in the dry regions