The Simplicial Characterisation of TS networks: Theory and applications

We use the visibility algorithm to construct the time series networks obtained from the time series of different dynamical regimes of the logistic map. We define the simplicial characterisers of networks which can analyse the simplicial structure at both the global and local levels. These characterisers are used to analyse the TS networks obtained in different dynamical regimes of the logisitic map. It is seen that the simplicial characterisers are able to distinguish between distinct dynamical regimes. We also apply the simplicial characterisers to time series networks constructed from fMRI data, where the preliminary results indicate that the characterisers are able to differentiate between distinct TS networks.Comment: 11 pages, 2 figures, 4 tables. Accepted for publication in Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Applications in Nonlinear Dynamics (ICAND 2016

Feigenbaum graphs: a complex network perspective of chaos

The recently formulated theory of horizontal visibility graphs transforms time series into graphs and allows the possibility of studying dynamical systems through the characterization of their associated networks. This method leads to a natural graph-theoretical description of nonlinear systems with qualities in the spirit of symbolic dynamics. We support our claim via the case study of the period-doubling and band-splitting attractor cascades that characterize unimodal maps. We provide a universal analytical description of this classic scenario in terms of the horizontal visibility graphs associated with the dynamics within the attractors, that we call Feigenbaum graphs, independent of map nonlinearity or other particulars. We derive exact results for their degree distribution and related quantities, recast them in the context of the renormalization group and find that its fixed points coincide with those of network entropy optimization. Furthermore, we show that the network entropy mimics the Lyapunov exponent of the map independently of its sign, hinting at a Pesin-like relation equally valid out of chaos.Comment: Published in PLoS ONE (Sep 2011

Anatomy of Indian heatwaves

India suffers from major heatwaves during March-June. The rising trend of number of intense heatwaves in recent decades has been vaguely attributed to global warming. Since the heat waves have a serious effect on human mortality, root causes of these heatwaves need to be clarified. Based on the observed patterns and statistical analyses of the maximum temperature variability, we identified two types of heatwaves. The first-type of heatwave over the north-central India is found to be associated with blocking over the North Atlantic. The blocking over North Atlantic results in a cyclonic anomaly west of North Africa at upper levels. The stretching of vorticity generates a Rossby wave source of anomalous Rossby waves near the entrance of the African Jet. The resulting quasi-stationary Rossby wave-train along the Jet has a positive phase over Indian subcontinent causing anomalous sinking motion and thereby heatwave conditions over India. On the other hand, the second-type of heatwave over the coastal eastern India is found to be due to the anomalous Matsuno-Gill response to the anomalous cooling in the Pacific. The Matsuno-Gill response is such that it generates northwesterly anomalies over the landmass reducing the land-sea breeze, resulting in heatwaves

El Niño, tropical Atlantic warmth, and Atlantic hurricanes over the past 1500 years

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2009. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Nature Publishing Group for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Nature 460 (2009): 880-883, doi:10.1038/nature08219.Atlantic Tropical Cyclone (TC) activity, as measured by annual storm counts, reached anomalous levels over the past decade. The short nature of the historical record and potential issues with its reliability in earlier decades, however, has prompted an ongoing debate regarding the reality and significance of the recent rise. Here, we place recent activity in a longer-term context, by comparing two independent estimates of TC activity over the past 1500 years. The first estimate is based on a composite of regional sedimentary evidence of landfalling hurricanes, while the second estimate employs a previously published statistical model of Atlantic TC activity driven by proxy-reconstructions of past climate changes. Both approaches yield consistent evidence of a peak in Atlantic TC activity during Medieval times (around AD 1000) followed by a subsequent lull in activity. The Medieval peak, which rivals or even exceeds (within uncertainties) recent levels of activity, results in the statistical model from a ‘perfect storm’ of La Niña-like climate conditions and relative tropical Atlantic warmth.M.E.M. and Z.Z. acknowledge support from the ATM programme of the National Science Foundation (grant ATM-0542356). J.P.D. acknowledges support from the EAR and OCE programmes of the National Science Foundation (grants EAR-0519118 and OCE-0402746), the Risk Prediction Initiative at the Bermuda Institute for Ocean Sciences, and the Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research

Refractory periods and climate forcing in cholera dynamics

Outbreaks of many infectious diseases, including cholera, malaria and dengue, vary over characteristic periods longer than 1 year(1,2). Evidence that climate variability drives these interannual cycles has been highly controversial, chiefly because it is difficult to isolate the contribution of environmental forcing while taking into account nonlinear epidemiological dynamics generated by mechanisms such as host immunity(2-4). Here we show that a critical interplay of environmental forcing, specifically climate variability, and temporary immunity explains the interannual disease cycles present in a four-decade cholera time series from Matlab, Bangladesh. We reconstruct the transmission rate, the key epidemiological parameter affected by extrinsic forcing, over time for the predominant strain ( El Tor) with a nonlinear population model that permits a contributing effect of intrinsic immunity. Transmission shows clear interannual variability with a strong correspondence to climate patterns at long periods ( over 7 years, for monsoon rains and Brahmaputra river discharge) and at shorter periods ( under 7 years, for flood extent in Bangladesh, sea surface temperatures in the Bay of Bengal and the El Nino Southern Oscillation). The importance of the interplay between extrinsic and intrinsic factors in determining disease dynamics is illustrated during refractory periods, when population susceptibility levels are low as the result of immunity and the size of cholera outbreaks only weakly reflects climate forcing.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/62876/1/nature03820.pd

Tropical-cyclone-driven erosion of the terrestrial biosphere from mountains

The transfer of organic carbon from the terrestrial biosphere to the oceans via erosion and riverine transport constitutes an important component of the global carbon cycle. More than one third of this organic carbon flux comes from sediment-laden rivers that drain the mountains in the western Pacific region. This region is prone to tropical cyclones, but their role in sourcing and transferring vegetation and soil is not well constrained. Here we measure particulate organic carbon load and composition in the LiWu River, Taiwan, during cyclone-triggered floods. We correct for fossil particulate organic carbon using radiocarbon, and find that the concentration of particulate organic carbon from vegetation and soils is positively correlated with water discharge. Floods have been shown to carry large amounts of clastic sediment. Non-fossil particulate organic carbon transported at the same time may be buried offshore under high rates of sediment accumulation. We estimate that on decadal timescales, 77–92% of non-fossil particulate organic carbon eroded from the LiWu catchment is transported during large, cyclone-induced floods. We suggest that tropical cyclones, which affect many forested mountains within the Intertropical Convergence Zone, may provide optimum conditions for the delivery and burial of non-fossil particulate organic carbon in the ocean. This carbon transfer is moderated by the frequency, intensity and duration of tropical cyclones

Effects of Extreme Precipitation to the Distribution of Infectious Diseases in Taiwan, 1994–2008

The incidence of extreme precipitation has increased with the exacerbation of worldwide climate disruption. We hypothesize an association between precipitation and the distribution patterns that would affect the endemic burden of 8 infectious diseases in Taiwan, including water- and vector-borne infectious diseases. A database integrating daily precipitation and temperature, along with the infectious disease case registry for all 352 townships in the main island of Taiwan was analysed for the period from 1994 to 2008. Four precipitation levels, <130 mm, 130–200 mm, 200–350 mm and >350 mm, were categorized to represent quantitative differences, and their associations with each specific disease was investigated using the Generalized Additive Mixed Model and afterwards mapped on to the Geographical Information System. Daily precipitation levels were significantly correlated with all 8 mandatory-notified infectious diseases in Taiwan. For water-borne infections, extreme torrential precipitation (>350 mm/day) was found to result in the highest relative risk for bacillary dysentery and enterovirus infections when compared to ordinary rain (<130 mm/day). Yet, for vector-borne diseases, the relative risk of dengue fever and Japanese encephalitis increased with greater precipitation only up to 350 mm. Differential lag effects following precipitation were statistically associated with increased risk for contracting individual infectious diseases. This study’s findings can help health resource sector management better allocate medical resources and be better prepared to deal with infectious disease outbreaks following future extreme precipitation events

Climatic risks and impacts in South Asia: extremes of water scarcity and excess

This paper reviews the current knowledge of climatic risks and impacts in South Asia associated with anthropogenic warming levels of 1.5°C to 4°C above pre-industrial values in the 21st century. It is based on the World Bank Report “Turn Down the Heat, Climate Extremes, Regional Impacts and the Case for Resilience” (2013). Many of the climate change impacts in the region, which appear quite severe even with relatively modest warming of 1.5–2°C, pose significant hazards to development. For example, increased monsoon variability and loss or glacial meltwater will likely confront populations with ongoing and multiple challenges. The result is a significant risk to stable and reliable water resources for the region, with increases in peak flows potentially causing floods and dry season flow reductions threatening agriculture. Irrespective of the anticipated economic development and growth, climate projections indicate that large parts of South Asia’s growing population and especially the poor are likely to remain highly vulnerable to climate change

Lawson criterion for ignition exceeded in an inertial fusion experiment

For more than half a century, researchers around the world have been engaged in attempts to achieve fusion ignition as a proof of principle of various fusion concepts. Following the Lawson criterion, an ignited plasma is one where the fusion heating power is high enough to overcome all the physical processes that cool the fusion plasma, creating a positive thermodynamic feedback loop with rapidly increasing temperature. In inertially confined fusion, ignition is a state where the fusion plasma can begin "burn propagation" into surrounding cold fuel, enabling the possibility of high energy gain. While "scientific breakeven" (i.e., unity target gain) has not yet been achieved (here target gain is 0.72, 1.37 MJ of fusion for 1.92 MJ of laser energy), this Letter reports the first controlled fusion experiment, using laser indirect drive, on the National Ignition Facility to produce capsule gain (here 5.8) and reach ignition by nine different formulations of the Lawson criterion