Beyond chance? The persistence of performance in online poker

A major issue in the widespread controversy about the legality of poker and the appropriate taxation of winnings is whether poker should be considered a game of skill or a game of chance. To inform this debate we present an analysis into the role of skill in the performance of online poker players, using a large database with hundreds of millions of player-hand observations from real money ring games at three different stakes levels. We find that players whose earlier profitability was in the top (bottom) deciles perform better (worse) and are substantially more likely to end up in the top (bottom) performance deciles of the following time period. Regression analyses of performance on historical performance and other skill-related proxies provide further evidence for persistence and predictability. Simulations point out that skill dominates chance when performance is measured over 1,500 or more hands of play

The development and piloting of the graduate assessment of preparedness for practice (GAPP) questionnaire

Introduction Most new dental graduates in the UK begin their professional career following a year in dental foundation training (DFT). There has been little investigation of how prepared they feel for independent general dental practice across all four domains of the General Dental Council’s curriculum ‘Preparing for practice’. This paper describes the development of the Graduate Assessment of Preparedness for Practice (GAPP) questionnaire to address this. Methodology The GAPP questionnaire was developed and piloted using a cohort of educational supervisors (ESs) and foundation dentists (FDs). The questionnaire comprised three parts, the first of which collected respondent demographic data. The second was based on Preparing for practice and was used to develop 34 ‘competence areas’ and required a tick-box response on a 7‑category Likert Scale. The third comprised free text questions in order to further explore the subject’s responses. Results Pilot feedback was positive, the statements were felt to be clear and unambiguous, allowing them sufficient scope to state their position. The pilot study informed small cosmetic changes to the GAPP questionnaire and inclusion of a ‘comments’ column for respondents to qualify their responses. The pilot results indicated that both FDs and their ESs felt that at ten months of DFT, the FDs were very well prepared for independent general dental practice. Discussion The paper describes the important considerations relating to the reliability and validity of the GAPP questionnaire. Conclusions GAPP appears to be a suitable questionnaire to measure preparedness of new graduates with a degree of reliability and validity. The instrument is designed to be simple to complete and provides a useful analytical instrument for both self-assessment of competence and for wider use within dental education

Mutations in FRMD7, a newly identified member of the FERM family, cause X-linked idiopathic congenital nystagmus

Idiopathic congenital nystagmus (ICN) is characterised by involuntary, periodic, predominantly horizontal, oscillations of both eyes. We identified 22 mutations in FRMD7 in 26 families with X-linked idiopathic congenital nystagmus. Screening of 42 ICN singleton cases (28 male, 14 females) yielded three mutations (7%). We found restricted expression of FRMD7 in human embryonic brain and developing neural retina suggesting a specific role in the control of eye movement and gaze stability

Numerical Simulations of Void Linkage in Model Materials using a Nonlocal Ductile Damage Approximation

Experiments on the growth and linkage of 10 μm diameter holes laser drilled in high precision patterns into Al-plates were modelled with finite elements. The simulations used geometries identical to those of the experiments and incorporated ductile damage by element removal under the control of a ductile damage indicator based on the micromechanical studies of Rice and Tracey. A regularization of the problem was achieved through an integral-type nonlocal model based on the smoothing of the rate of a damage indicator D over a characteristic length L. The simulation does not predict the experimentally observed damage acceleration either in the case where no damage is included or when only a local damage model is used. However, the full three-dimensional simulations based on the nonlocal damage methodology do predict both the failure path and the failure strain at void linkage for almost all configurations studied. For the cases considered the critical parameter controlling the local deformations at void linkage was found to be the ratio between hole diameter and hole spacing

Fluctuations in active membranes

Active contributions to fluctuations are a direct consequence of metabolic energy consumption in living cells. Such metabolic processes continuously create active forces, which deform the membrane to control motility, proliferation as well as homeostasis. Membrane fluctuations contain therefore valuable information on the nature of active forces, but classical analysis of membrane fluctuations has been primarily centered on purely thermal driving. This chapter provides an overview of relevant experimental and theoretical approaches to measure, analyze and model active membrane fluctuations. In the focus of the discussion remains the intrinsic problem that the sole fluctuation analysis may not be sufficient to separate active from thermal contributions, since the presence of activity may modify membrane mechanical properties themselves. By combining independent measurements of spontaneous fluctuations and mechanical response, it is possible to directly quantify time and energy-scales of the active contributions, allowing for a refinement of current theoretical descriptions of active membranes.Comment: 38 pages, 9 figures, book chapte

Lawson criterion for ignition exceeded in an inertial fusion experiment

For more than half a century, researchers around the world have been engaged in attempts to achieve fusion ignition as a proof of principle of various fusion concepts. Following the Lawson criterion, an ignited plasma is one where the fusion heating power is high enough to overcome all the physical processes that cool the fusion plasma, creating a positive thermodynamic feedback loop with rapidly increasing temperature. In inertially confined fusion, ignition is a state where the fusion plasma can begin "burn propagation" into surrounding cold fuel, enabling the possibility of high energy gain. While "scientific breakeven" (i.e., unity target gain) has not yet been achieved (here target gain is 0.72, 1.37 MJ of fusion for 1.92 MJ of laser energy), this Letter reports the first controlled fusion experiment, using laser indirect drive, on the National Ignition Facility to produce capsule gain (here 5.8) and reach ignition by nine different formulations of the Lawson criterion