Skill requirements of the low carbon transition

If the UK is to avoid the catastrophic impacts of climate change a low-carbon transition (LCT) must be achieved, whereby our energy infrastructure and economy dramatically reduce carbon-dioxide emissions. The thesis argues that the UK construction sector is key to the success of the LCT and proposes some longer-term skills forecasts to assess whether future supply will meet demand. The thesis uses secondary data to examine features of the UK construction sector which make it essential to achieving the LCT by building and installing the low-carbon infrastructure. Existing construction skills forecasting methodologies are reviewed to determine the required properties for the long-term projection. A novel model where underlying activity, technical change and institutional change co-evolve is developed to frame forecasts of the demand and supply of skills necessary for the LCT and identify if any potential skills shortages could disrupt it. To predict long-term UK growth patterns a new approach - Multi-channel Singular Spectral Analysis - is employed, using educational and demographic forecasts and incorporating business cycles. Technical change is explored using four Government produced 2050 pathways, each proposing a differing bundle of technologies to deliver the LCT. The skills demand for each pathway is then forecast and evaluated. Additional forecasts cover other potential demands and the impact of institutions. In particular, the additional impacts of adaptation measures and the possibility of building more dwellings to meet growing demand are evaluated. The results suggest that given appropriate policies and if the impacts of recessions are minimalised, and the number of new construction workers continues to grow, shortages can be avoided. UK skills policy and training, currently based on an employer-led philosophy, is evaluated to determine if it can provide a timely response to the increased demand for construction skills or whether a more proactive approach is required. The thesis argues that, if a more proactive engagement by the construction skills institutions and policy makers is adopted, the supply of skills could be sufficient to achieve the LCT. However, the higher levels of adaptation measures combined with building sufficient dwelling to meet demand could produce destabilising addition demand on the construction sector leading to problems with the LCT

Is late-life dependency increasing or not? A comparison of the Cognitive Function and Ageing Studies (CFAS)

Background: Little is known about how the proportions of dependency states have changed between generational cohorts of older people. We aimed to estimate years lived in different dependency states at age 65 years in 1991 and 2011, and new projections of future demand for care. Methods: In this population-based study, we compared two Cognitive Function and Ageing Studies (CFAS I and CFAS II) of older people (aged ≥65 years) who were permanently registered with a general practice in three defined geographical areas (Cambridgeshire, Newcastle, and Nottingham; UK). These studies were done two decades apart (1991 and 2011). General practices provided lists of individuals to be contacted and were asked to exclude those who had died or might die over the next month. Baseline interviews were done in the community and care homes. Participants were stratified by age, and interviews occurred only after written informed consent was obtained. Information collected included basic sociodemographics, cognitive status, urinary incontinence, and self-reported ability to do activities of daily living. CFAS I was assigned as the 1991 cohort and CFAS II as the 2011 cohort, and both studies provided prevalence estimates of dependency in four states: high dependency (24-h care), medium dependency (daily care), low dependency (less than daily), and independent. Years in each dependency state were calculated by Sullivan's method. To project future demands for social care, the proportions in each dependency state (by age group and sex) were applied to the 2014 England population projections. Findings: Between 1991 and 2011, there were significant increases in years lived from age 65 years with low dependency (1·7 years [95% CI 1·0-2·4] for men and 2·4 years [1·8-3·1] for women) and increases with high dependency (0·9 years [0·2-1·7] for men and 1·3 years [0·5-2·1] for women). The majority of men's extra years of life were spent independent (36·3%) or with low dependency (36·3%) whereas for women the majority were spent with low dependency (58·0%), and only 4·8% were independent. There were substantial reductions in the proportions with medium and high dependency who lived in care homes, although, if these dependency and care home proportions remain constant in the future, further population ageing will require an extra 71 215 care home places by 2025. Interpretation: On average older men now spend 2·4 years and women 3·0 years with substantial care needs, and most will live in the community. These findings have considerable implications for families of older people who provide the majority of unpaid care, but the findings also provide valuable new information for governments and care providers planning the resources and funding required for the care of their future ageing populations. Funding: Medical Research Council (G9901400) and (G06010220), with support from the National Institute for Health Research Comprehensive Local research networks in West Anglia and Trent, UK, and Neurodegenerative Disease Research Network in Newcastle, UK

Toward Increased Utilization of Historical Hurricane Chronologies

The record of past tropical cyclones provides an important means to evaluate the hurricane hazard. Historical chronologies are a source of information about tropical cyclones prior to the modern era. Chenoweth (2006) describes an archive of 383 tropical cyclones occurring during the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, largely before the official hurricane record. The present study demonstrates a novel way this archive can be used to articulate historical tropical cyclone activity across space. First, an event in the archive is assigned a series of latitude/longitude coordinates approximating the descriptive locations of the cyclone’s affect. Second, tropical cyclones from the modern record that approach these locations (modern analogs) are mapped. Third, a probable pathway and a realistic track of the archived event is created by averaging the modern analog tracks. As an example, the procedure is used to generate a map showing the tracks of the Atlantic tropical cyclones of 1766. Sensitivity of the methodology to changes in event location and event timing are considered. The study shows that historical hurricane chronologies when combined with a history of cyclone tracks can provide useful information about the older events that is not directly related to where the original information was gathered. When this information is available for all cyclones it should help climatologists better understand long-term variations in tropical cyclone activity

Therapeutic efficacy of favipiravir against Bourbon virus in mice

Bourbon virus (BRBV) is an emerging tick-borne RNA virus in the orthomyxoviridae family that was discovered in 2014. Although fatal human cases of BRBV have been described, little is known about its pathogenesis, and no antiviral therapies or vaccines exist. We obtained serum from a fatal case in 2017 and successfully recovered the second human infectious isolate of BRBV. Next-generation sequencing of the St. Louis isolate of BRBV (BRBV-STL) showed >99% nucleotide identity to the original reference isolate. Using BRBV-STL, we developed a small animal model to study BRBV-STL tropism in vivo and evaluated the prophylactic and therapeutic efficacy of the experimental antiviral drug favipiravir against BRBV-induced disease. Infection of Ifnar1-/- mice lacking the type I interferon receptor, but not congenic wild-type animals, resulted in uniformly fatal disease 6 to 10 days after infection. RNA in situ hybridization and viral yield assays demonstrated a broad tropism of BRBV-STL with highest levels detected in liver and spleen. In vitro replication and polymerase activity of BRBV-STL were inhibited by favipiravir. Moreover, administration of favipiravir as a prophylaxis or as post-exposure therapy three days after infection prevented BRBV-STL-induced mortality in immunocompromised Ifnar1-/- mice. These results suggest that favipiravir may be a candidate treatment for humans who become infected with BRBV

Gamma-ray bursts and terrestrial planetary atmospheres

We describe results of modeling the effects on Earth-like planets of long-duration gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) within a few kiloparsecs. A primary effect is generation of nitrogen oxide compounds which deplete ozone. Ozone depletion leads to an increase in solar UVB radiation at the surface, enhancing DNA damage, particularly in marine microorganisms such as phytoplankton. In addition, we expect increased atmospheric opacity due to buildup of nitrogen dioxide produced by the burst and enhanced precipitation of nitric acid. We review here previous work on this subject and discuss recent developments, including further discussion of our estimates of the rates of impacting GRBs and the possible role of short-duration bursts.Comment: 12 pages including 5 figures (4 in color). Added discussion of GRB rates and biological effects. Accepted for publication in New Journal of Physics, for special issue "Focus on Gamma-Ray Bursts