Evacuation planning in the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand: a spatio-temporal approach for emergency management and transportation network decisions

Auckland is the largest city in New Zealand (pop. 1.5 million) and is situated atop an active monogenetic volcanic field. When volcanic activity next occurs, the most effective means of protecting the people who reside and work in the region will be to evacuate the danger zone prior to the eruption. This study investigates the evacuation demand throughout the Auckland Volcanic Field and the capacity of the transportation network to fulfil such a demand. Diurnal movements of the population are assessed and, due to the seemingly random pattern of eruptions in the past, a non-specific approach is adopted to determine spatial vulnerabilities at a micro-scale (neighbourhoods). We achieve this through the calculation of population-, household- and car-to-exit capacity ratios. Following an analysis of transportation hub functionality and the susceptibility of motorway bridges to a new eruption, modelling using dynamic route and traffic assignment was undertaken to determine various evacuation attributes at a macro-scale and forecast total network clearance times. Evacuation demand was found to be highly correlated to diurnal population movements and neighbourhood boundary types, a trend that was also evident in the evacuation capacity ratio results. Elevated population to evacuation capacity ratios occur during the day in and around the central city, and at night in many of the outlying suburbs. Low-mobility populations generally have better than average access to public transportation. Macro-scale vulnerability was far more contingent upon the destination of evacuees, with favourable results for evacuation within the region as opposed to outside the region. Clearance times for intra-regional evacuation ranged from one to nine hours, whereas those for inter-regional evacuation were found to be so high, that the results were unrealistic. Therefore, we conclude that, from a mobility standpoint, there is considerable merit to intra-regional evacuation

Dating the Kawakawa/Oruanui eruption: Comment on "Optical luminescence dating of a loess section containing a critical tephra marker horizon, SW North Island of New Zealand" by R. Grapes et al.

An IRSL age of 17.0 ± 2.2 ka (and a “mean age” of ca. 19 ka) reported by Grapes et al. [Grapes, R., Rieser, U., Wang, N. Optical luminescence dating of a loess section containing a critical tephra marker horizon, SW North Island of New Zealand. Quaternary Geochronology 5(2-3), 164–169.] for the Kawakawa/Oruanui tephra, and other ages associated with a loess section in New Zealand are untenable: age data presented are inconsistent, no formal statistical treatments or error determinations were undertaken in age analysis, and the ages proposed are seriously at odds with multiple radiocarbon age determinations on tephra sequences bracketing the Kawakawa/Oruanui tephra and with palaeoenvironmental evidence elsewhere for the time period concerned. We suggest that the bulk polymineral IRSL ages on the tephra and encapsulating loess deposits were underestimated in part because of contamination of the loess by the integration of younger materials during slow deposition and continuous modification by upbuilding pedogenesis. Single-grain luminescence assays may reveal such contamination. A 14C-based age of ca. 27 ± 1 ka cal BP (2σ), reported in 2008, currently remains the best estimate for the age of eruption of the Kawakawa/Oruanui tephra

Os isotopic constraints on crustal contamination in Auckland Volcanic Field basalts, New Zealand

The Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF) represents the youngest and northernmost of three subjacent Quaternary intraplate basaltic volcanic fields in the North Island, New Zealand. Previous studies on AVF eruptive products suggested that their major- and trace-element, and Sr-, Nd- and Pb-isotopic signatures primarily reflect their derivation from the underlying asthenospheric and lithospheric mantle. All AVF lavas however ascend through a ca. 20–30 km thick continental crust, and some do carry crustal xenoliths, posing the question whether or not crustal contamination plays a role in their formation. Here we present new Os and Pb isotopic data, and Os and Re concentrations for 15 rock samples from 7 AVF volcanic centres to investigate mantle and crustal petrogenetic processes. The samples include the most primitive lavas from the field (Mg# 59–69) and span a range of eruption sizes, ages, locations, and geochemical signatures. The data show a large range in Os concentrations (6–579 ppt) and 187Os/188Os isotope ratios from mantle-like (0.123) to highly radiogenic (0.547). Highly radiogenic Os signatures together with relatively low Os contents in most samples suggest that ascending melts experienced contamination primarily from metasedimentary crustal rocks with high 187Os/188Os ratios (e.g., greywacke). We further demonstrate that < 1% metasedimentary crustal input into the ascending melt can produce the radiogenic Os isotope signatures observed in the AVF data. This low level of crustal contamination has no measurable effect on the corresponding trace element ratios and Sr-Nd-Pb isotopic compositions. In addition, high Os contents (195–578 ppt) at slightly elevated but mantle-like Os isotopic compositions (187Os/188Os = 0.1374–0.1377) in some samples suggest accumulation of xenocrystic olivine-hosted mantle sulphides from the Permian-Triassic ultramafic Dun Mountain Ophiolite Belt, which traverses the crust beneath the Auckland Volcanic Field. We therefore infer that the AVF Os isotopic compositions and Os contents reflect contamination from varying proportions of heterogeneous crustal components, composed of Waipapa and Murihiku terrane metasediments, and ultramafic rocks of the Dun Mountain Ophiolite Belt. This demonstrates, contrary to previous models that primitive lavas from the Auckland Volcanic Field do show evidence for variable interaction with the crust

Evidence for explosive silicic volcanism on the Moon from the extended distribution of thorium near the Compton-Belkovich Volcanic Complex

We reconstruct the abundance of thorium near the Compton-Belkovich Volcanic Complex on the Moon, using data from the Lunar Prospector Gamma Ray Spectrometer. We enhance the resolution via a pixon image reconstruction technique and find that the thorium is distributed over a larger (40km × 75 km) area than the (25km × 35 km) high-albedo region normally associated with Compton-Belkovich. Our reconstructions show that inside this region, the thorium concentration is 14–26ppm. We also find additional thorium, spread up to 300km eastward of the complex at ∼2 ppm. The thorium must have been deposited during the formation of the volcanic complex, because subsequent lateral transport mechanisms, such as small impacts, are unable to move sufficient material. The morphology of the feature is consistent with pyroclastic dispersal, and we conclude that the present distribution of thorium was likely created by the explosive eruption of silicic magma

Zig Zag symmetry in AdS/CFT duality

The validity of the Bianchi identity, which is intimately connected with the zig zag symmetry, is established, for piecewise continuous contours, in the context of Polakov's gauge field-string connection in the large 'tHooft coupling limit, according to which the chromoelectric `string' propagates in five dimensions with its ends attached on a Wilson loop in four dimensions. An explicit check in the wavy line approximation is presented.Comment: 24 pages version to appear in EPJ

Boundary TBA Equations for a Non-diagonal Theory

We compute the boundary entropies for the allowed boundary conditions of the SU(2)-invariant principal chiral model at level k=1. We used the reflection factors determined in a previous work. As a by-product we obtain some miscellaneous results such as the ground-state energy for mixed boundary conditions as well as the degeneracies of the Kondo model in the underscreened and exactly screened cases. All these computations are in perfect agreement with known results.Comment: 13 pages, Tex, 2 figures, revised version, added references, to be published in Nucl. Phys.

Rapid assembly and rejuvenation of a large silicic magmatic system : insights from mineral diffusive profiles in the Kidnappers and Rocky Hill deposits, New Zealand.

The timescales over which magmas in large silicic systems are reactivated, assembled and stored remains a fundamental question in volcanology. To address this question, we study timescales from Fe–Mg interdiffusion in orthopyroxenes and Ti diffusion in quartz from the caldera-forming 1200 km3 Kidnappers and 200 km3 Rocky Hill eruptions from the Mangakino volcanic centre (Taupo Volcanic Zone, New Zealand). The two eruptions came from the same source area, have indistinguishable 40Ar/39Ar ages (∼1.0 Ma) and zircon U–Pb age spectra, but their respective deposits are separated by a short period of erosion. Compositions of pumice, glass and mineral species in the collective eruption deposits define multiple melt dominant bodies but indicate that these shared a common magmatic mush zone. Diffusion timescales from both eruptions are used to build on chemical and textural crystal signatures and interpret both the crystal growth histories and the timing of magma accumulation. Fe–Mg interdiffusion profiles in orthopyroxenes imply that the three melt-dominant bodies, established through extraction of melt and crystals from the common source, were generated within 600 years and with peak accumulation rates within 100 years of each eruption. In addition, a less-evolved melt interacted with the Kidnappers magma, beginning ∼30 years prior to and peaking within 3 years of the eruption. This interaction did not directly trigger the eruption, but may have primed the magmatic system. Orthopyroxene crystals with the same zoning patterns from the Kidnappers and Rocky Hill pumices yield consistently different diffusion timescales, suggesting a time break between the eruptions of ∼20 years (from core–rim zones) to ∼10 years (outer rim zones). Diffusion of Ti in quartz reveals similarly short timescales and magmatic residence times of <30 years, suggesting quartz is only recording the last period of crystallization within the final eruptible melt. Accumulation of the eruptible magma for these two, closely successive eruptions was accomplished over centuries to decades, in contrast to the gestation time of the magmatic system of ∼200 kyr, as indicated by zircon age patterns. The magmatic system was able to recover after the Kidnappers eruption in only ∼10–20 years to accumulate enough eruptible melt and crystals for a second ∼200 km3 eruption. Our data support concepts of large silicic systems being stored as long-lived crystal mushes, with eruptible melts generated over extraordinarily short timescales prior to eruption

Chlorophyll fluorescence-based high-throughput phenotyping facilitates the genetic dissection of photosynthetic heat tolerance in African (Oryza glaberrima) and Asian (Oryza sativa) rice.

Acknowledgements We are grateful to the University of Nottingham glasshouse staff for their assistance with general plant maintenance. We acknowledge the insight of two anonymous reviews whose comments greatly improved this manuscript. JR and JNF were supported by the Palaeobenchmarking Resilient Agriculture Systems (PalaeoRAS) project funded by the Future Food Beacon of the University of Nottingham.Peer reviewedPostprin