Об одной математической модели мировой динамики и устойчивости развития

Викладено одну модифiкацiю моделi Форрестера свiтової динамiки. У запропонованiй моделi введено фактор невдоволення на кожному системному рiвнi моделi. Встановлено умови стiйкого розвитку вiдносно двох мiр у межах даної моделi.The paper is devoted to the discussion of a modification of Forrester’s model of the world dynamics. In the model, the “factor of discontent” is taken into account via the dynamics of public opinion on the development of separate system levels. We also established the conditions of sustainable development with respect to two measures

Risk Factors for Graft-versus-Host Disease in Haploidentical Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation Using Post-Transplant Cyclophosphamide

Post-transplant cyclophosphamide (PTCy) has significantly increased the successful use of haploidentical donors with a relatively low incidence of graft-versus-host disease (GVHD). Given its increasing use, we sought to determine risk factors for GVHD after haploidentical hematopoietic cell transplantation (haplo-HCT) using PTCy. Data from the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research on adult patients with acute myeloid leukemia, acute lymphoblastic leukemia, myelodysplastic syndrome, or chronic myeloid leukemia who underwent PTCy-based haplo-HCT (2013 to 2016) were analyzed and categorized into 4 groups based on myeloablative (MA) or reduced-intensity conditioning (RIC) and bone marrow (BM) or peripheral blood (PB) graft source. In total, 646 patients were identified (MA-BM = 79, MA-PB = 183, RIC-BM = 192, RIC-PB = 192). The incidence of grade 2 to 4 acute GVHD at 6 months was highest in MA-PB (44%), followed by RIC-PB (36%), MA-BM (36%), and RIC-BM (30%) (P =.002). The incidence of chronic GVHD at 1 year was 40%, 34%, 24%, and 20%, respectively (P <.001). In multivariable analysis, there was no impact of stem cell source or conditioning regimen on grade 2 to 4 acute GVHD; however, older donor age (30 to 49 versus <29 years) was significantly associated with higher rates of grade 2 to 4 acute GVHD (hazard ratio [HR], 1.53; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.11 to 2.12; P =.01). In contrast, PB compared to BM as a stem cell source was a significant risk factor for the development of chronic GVHD (HR, 1.70; 95% CI, 1.11 to 2.62; P =.01) in the RIC setting. There were no differences in relapse or overall survival between groups. Donor age and graft source are risk factors for acute and chronic GVHD, respectively, after PTCy-based haplo-HCT. Our results indicate that in RIC haplo-HCT, the risk of chronic GVHD is higher with PB stem cells, without any difference in relapse or overall survival

Social mobility among Christian Africans : Evidence from Ugandan Marriage Registers, 1895-2011

This article uses Anglican marriage registers from colonial and post‐colonial Uganda to investigate long‐term trends and determinants of intergenerational social mobility and colonial elite formation among Christian African men. It shows that the colonial era opened up new labour opportunities for these African converts, enabling them to take large steps up the social ladder regardless of their social origin. Contrary to the widespread belief that British indirect rule perpetuated the power of African political elites (chiefs), this article shows that a remarkably fluid colonial labour economy actually undermined their social advantages. Sons of chiefs gradually lost their high social‐status monopoly to a new, commercially orientated, and well‐educated class of Anglican Ugandans, who mostly came from non‐elite and sometimes even lower‐class backgrounds. The study also documents that the colonial administration and the Anglican mission functioned as key steps on the ladder to upward mobility. Mission education helped provide the skills and social reference needed to climb the ladder in exchange for compliance with the laws of the Anglican Church. These social mobility patterns persisted throughout the post‐colonial era, despite rising levels of informal labour during Idi Amin's dictatorship

Incremental – Adaptive – Knowledge Based – Learning for Informative Rules Extraction in Classification Analysis of aGvHD

Part 17: BioinformaticsInternational audienceAcute graft-versus-host disease (aGvHD) is a serious systemic complication of allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) that occurs when alloreactive donor-derived T cells recognize host-recipient antigens as foreign. The early events leading to GvHD seem to occur very soon, presumably within hours from the graft infusion. Therefore, when the first signs of aGvHD clinically manifest, the disease has been ongoing for several days at the cellular level, and the inflammatory cytokine cascade is fully activated. So, it comes as no surprise that to identify biomarker signatures for approaching this very complex task is a critical issue. In the past, we have already approached it through joint molecular and computational analyses of gene expression data proposing a computational framework for this disease. Notwithstanding this, there aren’t in literature quantitative measurements able to identify patterns or rules from these biomarkers or from aGvHD data, thus this is the first work about the issue. In this paper first we have applied different feature selection techniques, combined with different classifiers to detect the aGvHD at onset of clinical signs, then we have focused on the aGvHD scenario and in the knowledge discovery issue of the classification techniques used in the computational framework

Population, food, and knowledge: a simple unified growth theory

Economic growth, Population growth, Structural change, Industrial revolution, O11, O14, J10, J13,

Allogeneic Transplantation to Treat Therapy-Related Myelodysplastic Syndrome and Acute Myelogenous Leukemia in Adults

Patients who develop therapy-related myeloid neoplasm, either myelodysplastic syndrome (t-MDS) or acute myelogenous leukemia (t-AML), have a poor prognosis. An earlier Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research (CIBMTR) analysis of 868 allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantations (allo-HCTs) performed between 1990 and 2004 showed a 5-year overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) of 22% and 21%, respectively. Modern supportive care, graft-versus-host disease prophylaxis, and reduced-intensity conditioning (RIC) regimens have led to improved outcomes. Therefore, the CIBMTR analyzed 1531 allo-HCTs performed in adults with t-MDS (n = 759) or t-AML (n = 772) between and 2000 and 2014. The median age was 59 years (range, 18 to 74 years) for the patients with t-MDS and 52 years (range, 18 to 77 years) for those with tAML. Twenty-four percent of patients with t-MDS and 11% of those with t-AML had undergone a previous autologous (auto-) HCT. A myeloablative conditioning (MAC) regimen was used in 49% of patients with t-MDS and 61% of patients with t-AML. Nonrelapse mortality at 5 years was 34% (95% confidence interval [CI], 30% to 37%) for patients with t-MDS and 34% (95% CI, 30% to 37%) for those with t-AML. Relapse rates at 5 years in the 2 groups were 46% (95% CI, 43% to 50%) and 43% (95% CI, 40% to 47%). Five-year OS and DFS were 27% (95% CI, 23% to 31%) and 19% (95% CI, 16% to 23%), respectively, for patients with t-MDS and 25% (95% CI, 22% to 28%) and 23% (95% CI, 20% to 26%), respectively, for those with t-AML. In multivariate analysis, OS and DFS were significantly better in young patients with low-risk t-MDS and those with t-AML undergoing HCT with MAC while in first complete remission, but worse for those with previous auto-HCT, higher-risk cytogenetics or Revised International Prognostic Scoring System score, and a partially matched unrelated donor. Relapse remains the major cause of treatment failure, with little improvement seen over the past 2 decades. These data mandate caution when recommending allo-HCT in these conditions and indicate the need for more effective antineoplastic approaches before and after allo-HCT. (C) 2021 Published by Elsevier Inc. on behalf of The American Society for Transplantation and Cellular Therapy

Fludarabine and Melphalan Compared with Reduced Doses of Busulfan and Fludarabine Improve Transplantation Outcomes in Older Patients with Myelodysplastic Syndromes

Reduced-intensity conditioning (RIC) regimens developed to extend the use of allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) to older patients have resulted in encouraging outcomes. We aimed to compare the 2 most commonly used RIC regimens, i.v. fludarabine with busulfan (FluBu) and fludarabine with melphalan (FluMel), in patients with myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS). Through the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research (CIBMTR), we identified 1045 MDS patients age >= 60 years who underwent first HSCT with a matched related or matched (8/8) unrelated donor using an RIC regimen. The CIBMTR's definition of RIC was used: a regimen that incorporated an i.v. busulfan total dose <= 7.2 mg/kg or a low-dose melphalan total dose <= 150 mg/m(2). The 2 groups, recipients of FluBu (n = 697) and recipients of FluMel (n = 448), were comparable in terms of disease- and transplantation-related characteristics except for the more frequent use of antithymocyte globulin or alemtuzumab in the FluBu group (39% versus 31%). The median age was 67 years in both groups. FluMel was associated with a reduced relapse incidence (RI) compared with FluBu, with a 1-year adjusted incidence of 26% versus 44% (P <=.0001). Transplantation-related mortality (TRM) was higher in the FluMel group (26% versus 16%; P <= .0001). Because the magnitude of improvement with FluMel in RI was greater than the improvement in TRM with FluBu, disease-free survival (DFS) was better at 1 year and beyond with FluMel compared with FluBu (48% versus 40% at 1 year [P =.02] and 35% versus 27% at 3 years [P =.01]). Overall survival was comparable in the 2 groups at 1 year (63% versus 61%; P =.4) but was significantly improved with FluMel compared with FluBu at 3 years (46% versus 39%; P =.03). Our results suggest that FluMel is associated with superior DFS compared with FluBu owing to reduced RI in older patients with MDS patients. (C) 2021 American Society for Transplantation and Cellular Therapy. Published by Elsevier Inc. 2021 Published by Elsevier Inc. on behalf of The American Society for Transplantation and Cellular Therapy