Revisiting Useful Approaches to Data-Rich Macroeconomic Forecasting

This paper revisits a number of data-rich prediction methods, like factor models, Bayesian ridge regression and forecast combinations, which are widely used in macroeconomic forecasting, and compares these with a lesser known alternative method: partial least squares regression. Under the latter, linear, orthogonal combinations of a large number of predictor variables are constructed such that these linear combinations maximize the covariance between the target variable and each of the common components constructed from the predictor variables. We provide a theorem that shows that when the data comply with a factor structure, principal components and partial least squares regressions provide asymptotically similar results. We also argue that forecast combinations can be interpreted as a restricted form of partial least squares regression. Monte Carlo experiments confirm our theoretical result that principal components and partial least squares regressions are asymptotically similar when the data has a factor structure. These experiments also indicate that when there is no factor structure in the data, partial least squares regression outperforms both principal components and Bayesian ridge regressions. Finally, we apply partial least squares, principal components and Bayesian ridge regressions on a large panel of monthly U.S. macroeconomic and financial data to forecast, for the United States, CPI inflation, core CPI inflation, industrial production, unemployment and the federal funds rate across different sub-periods. The results indicate that partial least squares regression usually has the best out-of-sample performance relative to the two other data-rich prediction methods.Macroeconomic forecasting, Factor models, Forecast combination, Principal components, Partial least squares, (Bayesian) ridge regression

Creating Water, Sanitation And Hygiene (WASH) Program Awareness In Schools: A Tool Towards The Success Of Community Wash Program

The prov1s1on of safe water, sanitation and hygiene (WaSH) in schools has been established to improve health, boost educational achievement, and promote gender equity which has a positive impact on the society. However, in an earlier study conducted, with public secondary schools as the focus group, it was discovered that students· knowledge and perceptions about the importance of WaSH are very low. Moreover, there is wide disparity between the WaSH programs being instituted at these schools and the schools' facilities, thus making it difficult to impress the importance of this program in students. The previous study provides background data and insights on the practice levels and the need to apply suitable strategies to increase the effectiveness and success of the WaSH program in the future. One way to increase the effectiveness of the WaSH program is to stimulate students' interest in science and technology that could build their capacity in combating WaSH challenges. The main goal of this paper is to propose an idea on how to motivate students about WaSH issues while increasing their interest in Science Technology Engineering and Math (STEM). The presentation will propose STEM educational tools that can motivate and educate young men and women about water and sanitation. In addition, the presentation will show how to create awareness that would help integrate WaSH global standards into Nigeria's national programs and set specific targets at local level in order to ensure sustainability. The aftermath of the implementation of this idea is expected to create increased awareness of students in secondary schools and other higher levels on WaSH services. This would engender access to, and practice of safe drinking water, sanitation, and hygiene knowledge to all the people in the community and key-stakeholders for long-term sustainabilit

Multivariate Methods for Monitoring Structural Change

Detection of structural change is a critical empirical activity, but continuous 'monitoring' of series, for structural changes in real time, raises well-known econometric issues that have been explored in a single series context. If multiple series co-break then it is possible that simultaneous examination of a set of series helps identify changes with higher probability or more rapidly than when series are examined on a case-by-case basis. Some asymptotic theory is developed for maximum and average CUSUM detection tests. Monte Carlo experiments suggest that these both provide an improvement in detection relative to a univariate detector over a wide range of experimental parameters, given a sufficiently large number of co-breaking series. This is robust to a cross-sectional correlation in the errors (a factor structure) and heterogeneity in the break dates. We apply the test to a panel of UK price indices.Monitoring, Structural change, Panel, CUSUM, Fluctuation test

Low frequency quasi-normal modes of AdS black holes

We calculate analytically low frequency quasi-normal modes of gravitational perturbations of AdS Schwarzschild black holes in $d$ dimensions. We arrive at analytic expressions which are in agreement with their counterparts from linearized hydrodynamics in $S^{d-2}\times \mathbb{R}$, in accordance with the AdS/CFT correspondence. Our results are also in good agreement with results of numerical calculations.Comment: 14 page

Effect of Estrous Synchronization With Natural Service or Fixed-Timed Artificial Insemination Using Conventional or Gender-Kkewed Semen in Beef Females on Calving Distribution and Post Weaning Calf Performance

Study Description: Within 10 herds, beef females (n = 1,620) were either: 1) not synchronized (NonSyn) and mated to bulls, 2) synchronized (7-d controlled internal drug release (CIDR)) and mated to bulls (SynNS) 3) synchronized (7-d CO-Synch plus CIDR) and artificially inseminated with conventional semen (SynAI), or 4) synchronized (7-d CO-Synch plus CIDR) and artificially inseminated with SEXED semen. Calving distributions (calves born from d 1 to 14, 1 to 21, 22 to 42, and 43 and greater) were determined by actual birthdates and calf gender was determined at birth. Over a two-year period, a subset of calves (n = 508) born to cows subjected to the previously discussed reproductive treatments in each of the 10 herds were fed to reach a target backfat (BF) of 0.50 inches, sent to harvest, and carcass data were collected. Calves were classified into calving groups as natural service born early (NS-Early, n = 189), natural service born late (NS-Late, n = 203), or AI sired born early (AI-Early, n = 116). Early was defined as the first 21 days of the calving season

Elite male Flat jockeys display lower bone density and lower resting metabolic rate than their female counterparts: implications for athlete welfare

To test the hypothesis that daily weight-making is more problematic to health in male compared with female jockeys, we compared the bone-density and resting metabolic rate (RMR) in weight-matched male and female Flat-jockeys. RMR (kcal.kg-1 lean mass) was lower in males compared with females as well as lower bone-density Z-scores at the hip and lumbar spine. Data suggest the lifestyle of male jockeys’ compromise health more severely than females, possibly due to making-weight more frequently

Influence of oceanography on bowhead whale (Balaena mysticetus) foraging in the Chukchi Sea as inferred from animal-borne instrumentation

17 USC 105 interim-entered record; under review.The article of record as published may be found at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2021.104434The distribution of the Bering-Chukchi-Beaufort Sea population of bowhead whales (Balaena mysticetus) is largely centered in the Chukchi Sea in autumn (September–November), which is also when sea ice is at minimum extent allowing for increased ship traffic and industrial activity. Prior work paired autumn movements of bowhead whales in the Chukchi Sea with simulated hydrographic information and concluded whales followed relatively cold, saline waters of Pacific origin during migration (<0 ◦C, 31.5–34.25 psu). We attached six Satellite Relay Data Logger (SRDLs) that included miniaturized Conductivity, Temperature, and Depth (CTD) sensors capable of collecting temperature (T) and salinity (S) profiles as whales dove, allowing us to verify and expand upon prior habitat studies. Areas where transiting whales stopped and lingered (presumably to feed) were associated with colder surface temperatures and lingering behavior peaked where seafloor salinity was ~33 psu. Whales were also more likely to linger in areas where density gradients were lower at the seafloor. Whales targeted colder, more saline waters of Pacific origin, in agreement with our prior work. Surface and dive behavior of whales tagged in this and other studies suggests that most feeding in the central Chukchi Sea is occurring at depths below the surface, and that surface temperature is indicative of (a proxy for) other processes occurring at depth. We suggest that colder surface temperatures are indicative of the main pathway(s) by which zooplankton are advected through the Chukchi Sea. However, because similar movement patterns in other stocks of bowhead whales have been interpreted as the avoidance of thermal stress, we suggest more research is needed on thermoregulation before this question can be resolved.Global Model Analysis programDepartment of Energy RegionalOffice of Naval Research Arctic and Global Prediction programNational Science Foundation Arctic System Science progra

Influence of estradiol on bovine trophectoderm and uterine gene transcripts around maternal recognition of pregnancy

Embryo survival and pregnancy success is increased among animals that exhibit estrus prior to fixed time-artificial insemination, but there are no differences in conceptus survival to d16. The objective of this study was to determine effects of preovulatory estradiol on uterine transcriptomes, select trophectoderm (TE) transcripts, and uterine luminal fluid proteins. Beef cows/heifers were synchronized, artificially inseminated (d0), and grouped into either high (highE2) or low (lowE2) preovulatory estradiol. Uteri were flushed (d16); conceptuses and endometrial biopsies (n = 29) were collected. RNA sequencing was performed on endometrium. Real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) was performed on TE (n = 21) RNA to measure relative abundance of IFNT, PTGS2, TM4SF1, C3, FGFR2, and GAPDH. Uterine fluid was analyzed using 2D Liquid Chromatography with tandem mass spectrometry-based Isobaric tags for relative and absolute quantitation (iTRAQ) method. RT-PCR data were analyzed using the MIXED procedure in SAS. There were no differences in messenger RNA (mRNA) abundances in TE, but there were 432 differentially expressed genes (253 downregulated, 179 upregulated) in highE2/conceptus versus lowE2/conceptus groups. There were also 48 differentially expressed proteins (19 upregulated, 29 downregulated); 6 of these were differentially expressed (FDR \u3c 0.10) at the mRNA level. Similar pathways for mRNA and proteins included: calcium signaling, protein kinase A signaling, and corticotropin-releasing hormone signaling. These differences in uterine function may be preparing the conceptus for improved likelihood of survival after d16 among highE2 animals

Residual Nitrate and Mineralizable Soil Nitrogen in Relation to Nitrogen Uptake by Irrigated Sugarbeets

Previously reported studies on N fertilization of sugarbeets (Beta vulgaris L.) in southern Idaho revealed considerable variation among sites in amounts of residual soil NO? and N mineralized during short-term laboratory incubations. Consequently, the amount of N fertilizer needed to achieve near-maximum yields of sucrose differed markedly. The purpose of this study was to determine the feasibility of estimating amounts of N mineralized in the root zone during the season, taking into account site variations in temperature and soil water regimes. Residual soil NO?--N and mineralizable N to approximate rooting depth were estimated for 21 field sites in 1971 and six sites in 1972. The relative contributions of these two N sources to total N uptake by the crop, in the absence of applied fertilizer N, were then assessed. Estimates of N mineralized in the upper 45- cm soil layer for each successive month, ?N, over a 6- month period were derived using the expression, ?N/ ?t kWN (k = fraction of N mineralized during each month, ?t, adjusted for average air temperature; and W the estimated soil water content expressed as a fraction of the available water storage capacity). Resulting estimates of the fraction of potentially mineralizable N converted to (NO?- + NH?+)-N between 1 April and 30 September ranged from 0.15 to 0.22 (mean ± S.D. = 0.18 ± 0.02) in 1971 and 1972. On the average, mature sugarbeets recovered about 73% of the estimated N mineralized (6 months) plus residual NO?--N. The relative contributions of these two sources of soil derived N, respectively, were approximately 66 and 75%, as estimated from multiple regression analyses

Residual Nitrate and Mineralizable Soil Nitrogen in Relation to Nitrogen Uptake by Irrigated Sugarbeets

Previously reported studies on N fertilization of sugarbeets (Beta vulgaris L.) in southern Idaho revealed considerable variation among sites in amounts of residual soil NO? and N mineralized during short-term laboratory incubations. Consequently, the amount of N fertilizer needed to achieve near-maximum yields of sucrose differed markedly. The purpose of this study was to determine the feasibility of estimating amounts of N mineralized in the root zone during the season, taking into account site variations in temperature and soil water regimes. Residual soil NO?--N and mineralizable N to approximate rooting depth were estimated for 21 field sites in 1971 and six sites in 1972. The relative contributions of these two N sources to total N uptake by the crop, in the absence of applied fertilizer N, were then assessed. Estimates of N mineralized in the upper 45- cm soil layer for each successive month, ?N, over a 6- month period were derived using the expression, ?N/ ?t kWN (k = fraction of N mineralized during each month, ?t, adjusted for average air temperature; and W the estimated soil water content expressed as a fraction of the available water storage capacity). Resulting estimates of the fraction of potentially mineralizable N converted to (NO?- + NH?+)-N between 1 April and 30 September ranged from 0.15 to 0.22 (mean ± S.D. = 0.18 ± 0.02) in 1971 and 1972. On the average, mature sugarbeets recovered about 73% of the estimated N mineralized (6 months) plus residual NO?--N. The relative contributions of these two sources of soil derived N, respectively, were approximately 66 and 75%, as estimated from multiple regression analyses