Uncertainty in the availability of natural resources: Fossil fuels, critical metals and biomass

Energy policies are strongly influenced by resource availability and recoverability estimates. Yet these estimates are often highly uncertain, frequently incommensurable, and regularly contested. This paper explores how the uncertainties surrounding estimates of the availability of fossil fuels, biomass and critical metals are conceptualised and communicated. The contention is that a better understanding of the uncertainties surrounding resource estimates for both conventional and renewable energy resources can contribute to more effective policy decision making in the long term. Two complementary approaches for framing uncertainty are considered in detail: a descriptive typology of uncertainties and a framework that conceptualises uncertainty as alternative states of incomplete knowledge. Both have the potential to be useful analytical and communication tools. For the three resource types considered here we find that data limitations, inconsistent definitions and the use of incommensurable methodologies present a pervasive problem that impedes comparison. Many aspects of resource uncertainty are also not commonly captured in the conventional resource classification schemes. This highlights the need for considerable care when developing and comparing aggregate resource estimates and when using these to inform strategic energy policy decisions

Letters between John D. Speirs and W. J. Kerr

Letters concerning a position in mathematics, history, or english at Utah Agricultural College

Spatial modelling of Calanus finmarchicus and Calanus helgolandicus : parameter differences explain differences in biogeography

The North Atlantic copepods Calanus finmarchicus and C. helgolandicus are moving north in response to rising temperatures. Understanding the drivers of their relative geographic distributions is required in order to anticipate future changes. To explore this, we created a new spatially explicit stage-structured model of their populations throughout the North Atlantic. Recent advances in understanding Calanus biology, including U-shaped relationships between growth and fecundity and temperature, and a new model of diapause duration are incorporated in the model. Equations were identical for both species, but some parameters were species-specific. The model was parameterized using Continuous Plankton Recorder Survey data and tested using time series of abundance and fecundity. The geographic distributions of both species were reproduced by assuming that only known interspecific differences and a difference in the temperature influence on mortality exist. We show that differences in diapause capability are not necessary to explain why C. helgolandicus is restricted to the continental shelf. Smaller body size and higher overwinter temperatures likely make true diapause implausible for C. helgolandicus. Known differences were incapable of explaining why only C. helgolandicus exists southwest of the British Isles. Further, the fecundity of C. helgolandicus in the English Channel is much lower than we predict. We hypothesize that food quality is a key influence on the population dynamics of these species. The modeling framework presented can potentially be extended to further Calanus species

PET/MRI of Hepatic 90Y Microsphere Deposition Determines Individual Tumor Response.

PurposeThe purpose of our study is to determine if there is a relationship between dose deposition measured by PET/MRI and individual lesion response to yttrium-90 ((90)Y) microsphere radioembolization.Materials and methods26 patients undergoing lobar treatment with (90)Y microspheres underwent PET/MRI within 66 h of treatment and had follow-up imaging available. Adequate visualization of tumor was available in 24 patients, and contours were drawn on simultaneously acquired PET/MRI data. Dose volume histograms (DVHs) were extracted from dose maps, which were generated using a voxelized dose kernel. Similar contours to capture dimensional and volumetric change of tumors were drawn on follow-up imaging. Response was analyzed using both RECIST and volumetric RECIST (vRECIST) criteria.ResultsA total of 8 hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), 4 neuroendocrine tumor (NET), 9 colorectal metastases (CRC) patients, and 3 patients with other metastatic disease met inclusion criteria. Average dose was useful in predicting response between responders and non-responders for all lesion types and for CRC lesions alone using both response criteria (p < 0.05). D70 (minimum dose to 70 % of volume) was also useful in predicting response when using vRECIST. No significant trend was seen in the other tumor types. For CRC lesions, an average dose of 29.8 Gy offered 76.9 % sensitivity and 75.9 % specificity for response.ConclusionsPET/MRI of (90)Y microsphere distribution showed significantly higher DVH values for responders than non-responders in patients with CRC. DVH analysis of (90)Y microsphere distribution following treatment may be an important predictor of response and could be used to guide future adaptive therapy trials

Single-Shot Electron Diffraction using a Cold Atom Electron Source

Cold atom electron sources are a promising alternative to traditional photocathode sources for use in ultrafast electron diffraction due to greatly reduced electron temperature at creation, and the potential for a corresponding increase in brightness. Here we demonstrate single-shot, nanosecond electron diffraction from monocrystalline gold using cold electron bunches generated in a cold atom electron source. The diffraction patterns have sufficient signal to allow registration of multiple single-shot images, generating an averaged image with significantly higher signal-to-noise ratio than obtained with unregistered averaging. Reflection high-energy electron diffraction (RHEED) was also demonstrated, showing that cold atom electron sources may be useful in resolving nanosecond dynamics of nanometre scale near-surface structures.Comment: This is an author-created, un-copyedited version of an article published in Journal of Physics B: Atomic, Molecular and Optical Physics. IOP Publishing Ltd is not responsible for any errors or omissions in this version of the manuscript or any version derived from it. The Version of Record is available online at http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/0953-4075/48/21/21400

Immunohistochemical detection of ERβ in breast cancer: towards more detailed receptor profiling?

Oestrogen receptor (ER) is used routinely to predict endocrine responsiveness in patients with breast cancer. A second ER, ERβ has been described but its significance remains undefined; most studies have described mRNA levels rather than protein expression. Here, we demonstrate for the first time, immunohistochemical detection of ERβ in archival breast tumours. © 2001 Cancer Research Campaignhttp://www.bjcancer.co

Development of welding techniques and filler metals for high strength aluminum alloys Annual summary report, 27 Jun. 1964 - 27 Jun. 1965

Welding techniques and filler metals for high strength aluminum alloy

Projected impacts of 21st century climate change on diapause in Calanus finmarchicus

Diapause plays a key role in the life cycle of high latitude zooplankton. During diapause animals avoid starving in winter by living in deep waters where metabolism is lower and met by lipid reserves. Global warming is therefore expected to shorten the maximum potential diapause duration by increasing metabolic rates and by reducing body size and lipid reserves. This will alter the phenology of zooplankton, impact higher trophic levels and disrupt biological carbon pumps. Here we project the impacts of climate change on the key North Atlantic copepod Calanus finmarchicus under IPCC RCP 8.5. Potential diapause duration is modelled in relation to body size and overwintering temperature. The projections show pronounced geographic variations. Potential diapause duration reduces by more than 30% in the Western Atlantic, whereas in the key overwintering centre of the Norwegian Sea it changes only marginally. Surface temperature rises, which reduce body size and lipid reserves, will have a similar impact to deep water changes on diapause in many regions. Because deep water warming lags that at the surface, animals in the Labrador Sea could offset warming impacts by diapausing in deeper waters. However, the ability to control diapause depth may be limited

Design Enhancement of Biomedical Scaffolds Made By Selective Laser Melting

Selective laser melting (SLM) is increasingly used to fabricate biomedical scaffolds. However, the intrinsic specifications of the process such as laser spot size, layer thickness, and particle size limit the production accuracy, altering the geometrical characteristics and mechanical properties of the scaffolds. This work attempts to assess and improve the mechanical properties of TiAl6V4 biomedical scaffolds by eliminating/modifying the sharp and thin nodes (as the main source of stress concentrations and lowering the mechanical properties). This is carried out through a gradual increase of the beam (strut) thickness around the nodes where corresponding struts meet. The compression performance of these scaffolds was assessed and compared to common examples (unaltered struts) and to scaffolds designed with thicker struts in the centre of the beams (demonstrating the largest contrast). The findings prove that the thickening of the nodal points improves the strain distribution while maintains the mechanical properties at an identical solid volume fraction. This can be used to improve the scaffold design by a gradual strut thickness (in a comparable volume fraction) for an improved bio-mechanical performance.Mechanical Engineerin

How to decarbonise international shipping: Options for fuels, technologies and policies

International shipping provides 80–90% of global trade, but strict environmental regulations around NOX, SOX and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are set to cause major technological shifts. The pathway to achieving the international target of 50% GHG reduction by 2050 is unclear, but numerous promising options exist. This study provides a holistic assessment of these options and their combined potential to decarbonise international shipping, from a technology, environmental and policy perspective. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) is reaching mainstream and provides 20–30% CO2 reductions whilst minimising SOX and other emissions. Costs are favourable, but GHG benefits are reduced by methane slip, which varies across engine types. Biofuels, hydrogen, nuclear and carbon capture and storage (CCS) could all decarbonise much further, but each faces significant barriers around their economics, resource potentials and public acceptability. Regarding efficiency measures, considerable fuel and GHG savings could be attained by slow-steaming, ship design changes and utilising renewable resources. There is clearly no single route and a multifaceted response is required for deep decarbonisation. The scale of this challenge is explored by estimating the combined decarbonisation potential of multiple options. Achieving 50% decarbonisation with LNG or electric propulsion would likely require 4 or more complementary efficiency measures to be applied simultaneously. Broadly, larger GHG reductions require stronger policy and may differentiate between short- and long-term approaches. With LNG being economically feasible and offering moderate environmental benefits, this may have short-term promise with minor policy intervention. Longer term, deeper decarbonisation will require strong financial incentives. Lowest-cost policy options should be fuel- or technology-agnostic, internationally applied and will require action now to ensure targets are met by 2050