UK survey of non-medical use of prescription drugs (NMURx) as a valuable source of general population illicit drug use data.

PURPOSE OF STUDY: The aim of the study is to describe the prevalence of illicit drug use in England and Wales using data from the UK Survey of Non-Medical Use of Prescription Drugs (NMURx) programme and to compare against the well-established Crime Survey England and Wales (CSEW). The rationale is that recreational and illicit drug use is common, but the prevalence is difficult to estimate with personal interviewing methods. STUDY DESIGN: We compared two cross-sectional population surveys (NMURx, n=8903 and CSEW, n=20 685) with data regarding self-reported recreational drug use and demographics. NMURx is an online survey using non-probability sampling methodology with preset demographical quotas based on census data. CSEW surveys drug use via computer-assisted self-interviewing as part of a computer-assisted personal-interviewing crime survey. RESULTS: Cannabis was the most frequently used drug regardless of demographics. Prevalence of drug use for specific substances was generally higher for males, younger ages and students. The relationship between income and drug misuse is less clear. Self-reported prevalence of drug use in the NMURx survey is consistently higher than CSEW (absolute difference 1%-3 % across substances and timescales) and persists after stratification for gender, age, student status and household income. CONCLUSIONS: The NMURx survey has a broad reach of participants, and a sampling scheme that achieves external validity, compared with general population demographics. NMURx's online format allows flexibility in items surveyed and in response to emerging trends. The self-reported drug use in the NMURx cohort is comparable, although slightly higher, than the CSEW estimates

NGOs and the policy-making process in Russia : the case of child welfare reform

Peer reviewe

Lifetime physical activity and risk of breast cancer

We conducted a case–control study of 394 women with breast cancer and 788 control women (91% response) to investigate the association of lifetime physical activity with mainly menopausal breast cancer risk. After controlling for potential confounders, the odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) for increasing quartiles of lifetime physical activity were 1.00 (referent), 0.91 (0.60–1.37), 0.91 (0.60–1.39), and 1.10 (0.73–1.67), respectively;P, trend = 0.47. We also separately examined physical activity at ages 12–18, 19–34, 35–49 and ≥50 years; no significant trends were observed in any age group. These data do not support a role of physical activity in preventing breast cancer. © 2001 Cancer Research Campaignhttp://www.bjcancer.co

The dawn of the dead : (improbable) art after aI-zombie apocalypse

In recent years there has been growing interest in artificial neural networks (ANNs) which are quickly becoming the primary device for machine learning. Used for finding patterns in large data sets, ANNs were also recently employed in many artistic contexts: as tools for artists, semi-independent creators of content, and even as invisible "critics" which / who predict our aesthetic preferences. The aim of this paper is to speculate about the disruptive effect of these ‘alien agencies’ on the (modernist) aesthetic regime of art centred around the notion of autonomy. The author examines how neural networks and connectionist epistemologies may potentially affect the most common ways of producing, circulating, and valorising art. He claims that the possibility of automatizing creativity and art criticism may lead to the emergence of a new aesthetic regime based on forms of dynamic, distributed and probabilistic governance

Population-Attributable Risk Estimates for Risk Factors Associated with Campylobacter Infection, Australia

One-sentence summary: Each year, an estimated 50,500 cases in persons >5 years of age can be directly attributed to consumption of chicken

Paecilomyces lilacinus causing debilitating sinusitis in an immunocompetent patient: a case report

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Introduction</p> <p>Since the discovery of the first documented case of <it>Paecilomyces </it>in 1963, only five cases of <it>Paecilomyces </it>sinusitis have been described to date and all of them have predisposing factors such as immunocompromised status or prior nasal surgery. We present the first case of <it>Paecilomyces lilacinus </it>sinusitis in a fit young woman with no identified predisposing factors. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first known case in the UK and in Europe.</p> <p>Case presentation</p> <p>A 20-year-old Iraqi woman who has lived in the UK for the past five years presented with rhinorrhea, hyposmia, and nasal obstruction. She was previously fit and well and had no significant medical history. Imaging revealed a fungal infection that was eventually revealed on cytological examination to be <it>P. lilacinus</it>.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p><it>P. lilacinus </it>is both a difficult and important organism to identify because it has intrinsic anti-fungal resistance. In our case, the infection was severe and recurrent, and the organism demonstrated resistance to common oral anti-fungal agents. There was a delay in its diagnosis, owing to its similarity in appearance to <it>Penicillium </it>and a difficulty in distinguishing between the two without specialized knowledge of fungal taxonomy. In the field of otolaryngology, <it>Paecilomyces </it>is relatively unknown. Our intention is to raise awareness of this organism as well as to describe the challenges in its management.</p

Risk prediction models with incomplete data with application to prediction of estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer: prospective data from the Nurses' Health Study

Introduction A number of breast cancer risk prediction models have been developed to provide insight into a woman\u27s individual breast cancer risk. Although circulating levels of estradiol in postmenopausal women predict subsequent breast cancer risk, whether the addition of estradiol levels adds significantly to a model\u27s predictive power has not previously been evaluated. Methods Using linear regression, the authors developed an imputed estradiol score using measured estradiol levels (the outcome) and both case status and risk factor data (for example, body mass index) from a nested case-control study conducted within a large prospective cohort study and used multiple imputation methods to develop an overall risk model including both risk factor data from the main cohort and estradiol levels from the nested case-control study. Results The authors evaluated the addition of imputed estradiol level to the previously published Rosner and Colditz log-incidence model for breast cancer risk prediction within the larger Nurses\u27 Health Study cohort. The follow-up was from 1980 to 2000; during this time, 1,559 invasive estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer cases were confirmed. The addition of imputed estradiol levels significantly improved risk prediction; the age-specific concordance statistic increased from 0.635 ± 0.007 to 0.645 ± 0.007 (P \u3c 0.001) after the addition of imputed estradiol. Conclusion Circulating estradiol levels in postmenopausal women appear to add to other lifestyle factors in predicting a woman\u27s individual risk of breast cancer

Risk and protective factors for falls on stairs in young children: multicentre case–control study

Aim: To investigate risk and protective factors for stair falls in children aged <5 years. Methods: Multicentre case–control study at hospitals, minor injury units and general practices in and around four UK study centres. Cases were children with medically attended stair fall injuries. Controls were matched on age, sex, calendar time and study centre. A total of 610 cases and 2658 controls participated. Results: Cases’ most common injuries were bangs on the head (66%), cuts/grazes not requiring stitches (14%) and fractures (12%). Parents of cases were significantly more likely not to have stair gates (adjusted OR (AOR) 2.50, 95% CI 1.90 to 3.29; population attributable fraction (PAF) 21%) or to leave stair gates open (AOR 3.09, 95% CI 2.39 to 4.00; PAF 24%) both compared with having closed stair gates. They were more likely not to have carpeted stairs (AOR 1.52, 95% CI 1.09 to 2.10; PAF 5%) and not to have a landing part-way up their stairs (AOR 1.34, 95% CI 1.08 to 1.65; PAF 18%). They were more likely to consider their stairs unsafe to use (AOR 1.46, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.99; PAF 5%) or to be in need of repair (AOR 1.71, 95% CI 1.16 to 2.50; PAF 5%). Conclusion: Structural factors including having landings part-way up the stairs and keeping stairs in good repair were associated with reduced stair fall injury risk. Family factors including having stair gates, not leaving gates open and having stair carpets were associated with reduced injury risk. If these associations are causal, addressing these factors in housing policy and routine child health promotion could reduce stair fall injuries

Estimating uncertainty of alcohol-attributable fractions for infectious and chronic diseases

Background: Alcohol is a major risk factor for burden of disease and injuries globally. This paper presents a systematic method to compute the 95% confidence intervals of alcohol-attributable fractions (AAFs) with exposure and risk relations stemming from different sources.Methods: The computation was based on previous work done on modelling drinking prevalence using the gamma distribution and the inherent properties of this distribution. The Monte Carlo approach was applied to derive the variance for each AAF by generating random sets of all the parameters. A large number of random samples were thus created for each AAF to estimate variances. The derivation of the distributions of the different parameters is presented as well as sensitivity analyses which give an estimation of the number of samples required to determine the variance with predetermined precision, and to determine which parameter had the most impact on the variance of the AAFs.Results: The analysis of the five Asian regions showed that 150 000 samples gave a sufficiently accurate estimation of the 95% confidence intervals for each disease. The relative risk functions accounted for most of the variance in the majority of cases.Conclusions: Within reasonable computation time, the method yielded very accurate values for variances of AAFs

Evaluation of the BOADICEA risk assessment model in women with a family history of breast cancer

The ability of the Breast and Ovarian Analysis of Disease Incidence and Carrier Estimation Algorithm (BOADICEA) model to predict BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations and breast cancer incidence in women with a family history of breast cancer was evaluated. Observed mutations in 263 screened families were compared to retrospective predictions. Similarly, observed breast cancers in 640 women were compared to retrospective predictions of breast cancer incidence. The ratios of observed to expected number of BRCA1- , BRCA2- and BRCA(1 or 2) mutations were 1.43 (95% CI 1.05–1.90), 0.63 (95% CI 0.34–1.08), and 1.12 (95% CI 0.86–1.44), showing a significant underestimation of BRCA1 mutations. Discrimination between carriers and non-carriers as measured by area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was 0.83 (95% CI 0.76–0.88). The ratio of observed to expected number of invasive breast cancers was 1.41 (0.91–2.08). The corresponding area under the ROC curve for prediction of invasive breast cancer at individual level was 0.62 (95% CI 0.52–0.73). In conclusion, the BOADICEA model can predict the total prevalence of BRCA(1 or 2) mutations and the incidence of invasive breast cancers. The mutation probability as generated by BOADICEA can be used clinically as a guideline for screening, and thus decrease the proportion of negative mutation analyses. Likewise, individual breast cancer risks can be used for selecting women whose risk of breast cancer indicates follow-up. Application of local mutation frequencies of BRCA1 and BRCA2 could improve the ability to distinguish between the two genes