Projected Regional Climate in 2025 Due to Urban Growth

By 2025, 60 to 80 percent of the world s population will live in urban environments. Additionally, the following facts published by the United Nations further illustrates how cities will evolve in the future. Urban areas in the developing world are growing very rapidly. The urban growth rate will continue to be particularly rapid in the urban areas of less developed regions, averaging 2.4 per cent per year during 2000-2030, consistent with a doubling time of 29 years. The urbanization process will continue worldwide. The concentration of population in cities is expected to continue so that, by 2030, 84 percent of the inhabitants of more developed countries will be urban dwellers. Urbanization impacts the whole hierarchy of human settlements. In 2000,24.8 per cent of the world population lived in urban settlements with fewer than 500,000 inhabitants and by 2015 that proportion will likely rise to 27.1 per cent

Urban Surface Temperature Reduction via the Urban Aerosol Direct Effect: A Remote Sensing and WRF Model Sensitivity Study

The aerosol direct effect, namely, scattering and absorption of sunlight in the atmosphere, can lower surface temperature by reducing surface insolation. By combining National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) AERONET (AErosol RObotic NETwork) observations in large cities with Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations, we find that the aerosol direct reduction of surface insolation ranges from 40–100Wm−2, depending on aerosol loading and land-atmosphere conditions. To elucidate the maximum possible effect, values are calculated using a radiative transfer model based on the top quartile of the multiyear instantaneous aerosol data observed by AERONET sites. As a result, surface skin temperature can be reduced by 1°C-2°C while 2-m surface air temperature reductions are generally on the order of 0.5°C–1°C

By Shepherd, et all, posted on November 29th, 2013 in Articles, Climate

Earth is increasingly an “urbanized ” planet. The “World Population Clock ” registered a Population of 7,175,309,538 at 8:30 pm (LST) on Oct. 6, 2013. Current and future trends suggest that this population will increasingly reside in cities. Currently, 52 percent of the world population is urban, which means we are a majority “urbanized ” society. Figure 1 indicates this trend will continue, wit

Ideology, statecraft and the ‘double shuffle’ of Conservative planning reform in England.

This paper explores the political implications of conflicts over new housebuilding for Conservative-led governments in England since 2010. Revisiting debates about the tensions between neoliberal and more collectivist traditions within the political ideology of the Conservative Party, we argue that rather than blocking change this internal conflict should be seen as a dynamic part of the politics of planning. This leads us to propose that Conservative planning reforms have been characterised by a distinctive ‘double shuffle’ through which the party has sought to progress neoliberalising reforms whilst managing these tensions and seeking to maintain their hold on power through statecraft

Expansion of the Knockdown Resistance Frequency Map for Human Head Lice (Phthiraptera: Pediculidae) in the United States Using Quantitative Sequencing

Pediculosis is a prevalent parasitic infestation of humans, which is increasing due, in part, to the selection of lice resistant to either the pyrethrins or pyrethroid insecticides by the knockdown resistance (kdr) mechanism. To determine the extent and magnitude of thekdr-type mutations responsible for this resistance, lice were collected from 138 collection sites in 48 U.S. states from 22 July 2013 to 11 May 2015 and analyzed by quantitative sequencing. Previously published data were used for comparisons of the changes in the frequency of thekdr-type mutations over time. Mean percent resistance allele frequency (mean % RAF) values across the three mutation loci were determined from each collection site. The overall mean % RAF (+/-SD) for all analyzed lice was 98.3 +/- 10%. 132/138 sites (95.6%) had a mean % RAF of 100%, five sites (3.7%) had intermediate values, and only a single site had no mutations (0.0%). Forty-two states (88%) had a mean % RAF of 100%. The frequencies ofkdr-type mutations did not differ regardless of the human population size that the lice were collected from, indicating a uniformly high level of resistant alleles. The loss of efficacy of the Nix formulation (Prestige Brand, Tarrytown, NY) from 1998 to 2013 was correlated to the increase inkdr-type mutations. These data provide a plausible reason for the decrease in the effectiveness of permethrin in the Nix formulation, which is the parallel increase ofkdr-type mutations in lice over time

Radio Sources in Galaxy Clusters at 28.5 GHz

We present serendipitous detections of radio sources at 28.5 GHz (1 cm), which resulted from our program to image thermal Sunyaev-Zeldovich (SZ) effect in 56 galaxy clusters. We find 64 radio sources with fluxes down to 0.4 mJy, and within 250 arcseconds from the pointing centers. The spectral indices (S ~ \nu^-\alpha) of 54 sources with published low frequency flux densities range from -0.6 to 2 with a mean of 0.77, and a median of 0.84. Extending low frequency surveys of radio sources towards galaxy clusters CL 0016+16, Abell 665, and Abell 2218 to 28.5 GHz, and selecting sources with 1.4 GHz flux density greater than 7 mJy to form an unbiased sample, we find a mean spectral index of 0.71 and a median of 0.71. We find 4 to 7 times more sources predicted from a low frequency survey in areas without galaxy clusters. This excess cannot be accounted for by gravitational lensing of a background radio population by cluster potentials, indicating most of the detected sources are associated with galaxy clusters. For the cluster Abell 2218, the presence of unsubtracted radio sources with 28.5 GHz flux densities less than 0.5 mJy, can only contribute to temperature fluctuations at a level of 10 to 25 \muK. The corresponding error due to radio point source contamination in the Hubble constant derived through a combined analysis of 28.5 GHz SZ images and X-ray emission observations ranges from 1% to 6%.Comment: 18 pages, 8 figures, to appear in April 1998 issue of A

Blood pressure variability and cardiovascular risk in the PROspective study of pravastatin in the elderly at risk (PROSPER)

Variability in blood pressure predicts cardiovascular disease in young- and middle-aged subjects, but relevant data for older individuals are sparse. We analysed data from the PROspective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk (PROSPER) study of 5804 participants aged 70–82 years with a history of, or risk factors for cardiovascular disease. Visit-to-visit variability in blood pressure (standard deviation) was determined using a minimum of five measurements over 1 year; an inception cohort of 4819 subjects had subsequent in-trial 3 years follow-up; longer-term follow-up (mean 7.1 years) was available for 1808 subjects. Higher systolic blood pressure variability independently predicted long-term follow-up vascular and total mortality (hazard ratio per 5 mmHg increase in standard deviation of systolic blood pressure = 1.2, 95% confidence interval 1.1–1.4; hazard ratio 1.1, 95% confidence interval 1.1–1.2, respectively). Variability in diastolic blood pressure associated with increased risk for coronary events (hazard ratio 1.5, 95% confidence interval 1.2–1.8 for each 5 mmHg increase), heart failure hospitalisation (hazard ratio 1.4, 95% confidence interval 1.1–1.8) and vascular (hazard ratio 1.4, 95% confidence interval 1.1–1.7) and total mortality (hazard ratio 1.3, 95% confidence interval 1.1–1.5), all in long-term follow-up. Pulse pressure variability was associated with increased stroke risk (hazard ratio 1.2, 95% confidence interval 1.0–1.4 for each 5 mmHg increase), vascular mortality (hazard ratio 1.2, 95% confidence interval 1.0–1.3) and total mortality (hazard ratio 1.1, 95% confidence interval 1.0–1.2), all in long-term follow-up. All associations were independent of respective mean blood pressure levels, age, gender, in-trial treatment group (pravastatin or placebo) and prior vascular disease and cardiovascular disease risk factors. Our observations suggest variability in diastolic blood pressure is more strongly associated with vascular or total mortality than is systolic pressure variability in older high-risk subjects

Chandra and HST observations of gamma-ray blazars: comparing jet emission at small and large scales

We present new Chandra and HST data for four gamma-ray blazars selected on the basis of radio morphology with the aim of revealing X-ray and optical emission from their jets at large scales. All the sources have been detected. Spectral Energy Distributions of the large scale jets are obtained as well as new X-ray spectra for the blazar cores. Modeling for each object the core (sub-pc scale) and large-scale (>100 kpc) jet SEDs, we derive the properties of the same jet at the two scales. The comparison of speeds and powers at different scales supports a simple scenario for the dynamics and propagation of high power relativistic jets.Comment: Accepted for publication in Ap

The end of the world, or just 'goodbye to all that'? Contextualising the red deer heap from Links of Noltland, Westray, within late 3rd-millennium cal BC Orkney

As part of a major international research project, The Times of Their Lives, a programme of radiocarbon dating and Bayesian modelling was undertaken to refine the chronology of activities in one small but important part of the extensive Late Neolithic and Bronze Age settlement on Links of Noltland on the island of Westray, Orkney. The selected area (Trench D) is well known for having produced, next to a wall, the remains of a heap of at least 15 red deer carcasses, on top of which had been placed a large cod, a gannet’s wing along with part of a greater black-backed gull, and a pair of large antlers. This remarkable deposit had been preceded by, and was followed by, periods of cultivation and the deposition of domestic refuse. Refined date estimates have been produced, based on 18 radiocarbon determinations obtained from 16 samples from Trench D (including nine newly obtained dates, three from individual deer in the heap). These clarify when, during this long sequence of activities, the deer were heaped up: probably in the 22nd century cal bc, around the same time as Beaker pottery was deposited elsewhere on the Links. This allows comparison between the dated activities in this part of the site with activity elsewhere on the Links and also with other episodes of deer deposition in 3rd-millennium cal bc Orkney. It encourages exploration of the possible reasons for what appears to be a remarkable act of structured deposition. The significance of an earlier, much larger scale deposit featuring cattle remains at Ness of Brodgar is discussed in exploring the nature of Orcadian society and practices during the second half of the 3rd millennium cal bc

AGN feedback and iron enrichment in the powerful radio galaxy, 4C+55.16

We present a detailed X-ray analysis of 4C+55.16, an unusual and interesting radio galaxy, located at the centre of a cool core cluster of galaxies. 4C+55.16 is X-ray bright (L(cluster)~10^45 erg/s), radio powerful, and shows clear signs of interaction with the surrounding intracluster medium. By combining deep Chandra (100 ks) with 1.4 GHz VLA observations, we find evidence of multiple outbursts from the central AGN, providing enough energy to offset cooling of the ICM (P_bubbles=6.7x10^44 erg/s). Furthermore, 4C+55.16 has an unusual intracluster iron distribution showing a plume-like feature rich in Fe L emission that runs along one of the X-ray cavities. The excess of iron associated with the plume is around 10^7M_sol. The metal abundances are consistent with being Solar-like, indicating that both SNIa and SNII contribute to the enrichment. The plume and southern cavity form a region of cool metal-rich gas, and at the edge of this region, there is a clear discontinuity in temperature (from kT~2.5 keV to kT~5.0 keV), metallicity (from ~0.4 solar to 0.8 solar), and surface brightness distribution, consistent with it being caused by a cold front. However, we also suggest that this discontinuity could be caused by cool metal-rich gas being uplifted from the central AGN along one of its X-ray cavities.Comment: 12 pages, 11 figures, 1 table, Accepted to MNRAS (minor revision