The Economy and Loss Given Default: Evidence from Two UK Retail Lending Datasets

Loss given default (LGD) models predict losses as a proportion of the outstanding loan, in the event a debtor goes into default. The literature on corporate sector LGD models suggests LGD is correlated to the economy and so changes in the economy could translate into different predictions of losses. In this work, the role of macroeconomic variables in loan-level retail LGD models is examined by testing the inclusion of macroeconomic variables in two different retail LGD models: a two-stage model for a residential mortgage loans data set and an ordinary least squares model for an unsecured personal loans data set. To improve loan-level predictions of LGD, indicators relating to the macroeconomy are considered with mixed results: the selected macroeconomic variable seemed able to improve the predictive performance of mortgage loan LGD estimates, but not for personal loan LGD. For mortgage loan LGD, interest rate was most beneficial but only predicted better during downturn periods, underestimating LGD during non-downturn periods. For personal loan LGD, only net lending growth is statistically significant but including this variable did not bring any improvement to R2

Triggering Mechanisms for Motor Actions: The Effects of Expectation on Reaction Times to Intense Acoustic Stimuli

Motor actions can be released much sooner than normal when the go-signal is of very high intensity (>100 dBa). Although statistical evidence from individual studies has been mixed, it has been assumed that sternocleidomastoid (SCM) muscle activity could be used to distinguish between two neural circuits involved in movement triggering. We summarized meta-analytically the available evidence for this hypothesis, comparing the difference in premotor reaction time (RT) of actions where SCM activity was elicited (SCM+ trials) by loud acoustic stimuli against trials in which it was absent (SCM- trials). We found ten studies, all reporting comparisons between SCM+ and SCM- trials. Our mini meta-analysis showed that premotor RTs are faster in SCM+ than in SCM- trials, but the effect can be confounded by the variability of the foreperiods employed. We present experimental data showing that foreperiod predictability can induce differences in RT that would be of similar size to those attributed to the activation of different neurophysiological pathways to trigger prepared actions. We discuss plausible physiological mechanisms that would explain differences in premotor RTs between SCM+ and SCM- trials

Vitamin D, innate immunity and outcomes in community acquired pneumonia

We investigated the associations between vitamin D status, the antimicrobial peptides cathelicidin and beta defensin-2 and outcomes in community acquired pneumonia. In hospitalised patients with community acquired pneumonia, vitamin D deficiency but not antimicrobial peptide levels were associated with increased 30-day mortality. Vitamin D was not associated with levels of the antimicrobial peptide cathelicidin or beta defensin-2

A performance evaluation of pruning effects on hybrid neural network

In this paper, we explore the pruning effects on a hybrid mode sequential learning algorithmnamely FuzzyARTMAP-prunable Radial Basis Function (FAM-PRBF) that utilizes FuzzyARTMAP to learn a training dataset and Radial Basis Function Network (RBFN) to performregression and classification. The pruning algorithm is used to optimize the hidden layer ofthe RBFN. The experimental results show that FAM-PRBF has successfully reduced thecomplexity and computation time of the neural network.Keywords: pruning; radial basis function network; fuzzy ARTMAP

Isolation and characterization of malaria PfHRP2 specific V-NAR antibody fragments from immunized shark phage display library

Background Malaria rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) represent an important antibody based immunoassay platform. Unfortunately, conventional monoclonal antibodies are subject to degradation shortening shelf lives of RDTs. The variable region of the receptor (VNAR) from shark has a potential as alternative to monoclonal antibodies in RDTs due to high thermal stability. Methods In this study, new binders derived from shark VNAR domains library were investigated. Following immunization of a wobbegong shark (Orectolobus ornatus) with three recombinant malaria biomarker proteins (PfHRP2, PfpLDH and Pvaldolase), a single domain antibody (sdAb) library was constructed from splenocytes. Target-specific VNAR phage were isolated by panning. One specific clone was selected for expression in Escherichia coli expression system, and study of binding reactivity undertaken. Results The primary VNAR domain library possessed a titre of 1.16 × 106&nbsp;pfu/mL. DNA sequence analysis showed 82.5% of isolated fragments appearing to contain an in-frame sequence. After multiple rounds of biopanning, a highly dominant clone specific to PfHRP2 was identified and selected for protein production in an E. coli expression system. Biological characterization showed the recombinant protein expressed in periplasmic has better detection sensitivity than that of cytoplasmic proteins. Assays of binding activity indicated that its reactivity was inferior to the positive control mAb C1–13. Conclusions Target-specific bacteriophage VNARs were successfully isolated after a series of immunization, demonstrating that phage display technology is a useful tool for selection of antigen binders. Generation of new binding reagents such as VNAR antibodies that specifically recognize the malaria biomarkers represents an appealing approach to improve the performance of RDTs.</p