Competition for land

A key challenge for humanity is how a future global population of 9 billion can all be fed healthily and sustainably. Here, we review how competition for land is influenced by other drivers and pressures, examine land-use change over the past 20 years and consider future changes over the next 40 years

Dynamic Merge of the Global and Local Models for Sustainable Land Use Planning with Regard for Global Projections from GLOBIOM and Local Technical–Economic Feasibility and Resource Constraints

In order to conduct research at required spatial resolution, we propose a model fusion involving interlinked calculations of regional projections by the global dynamic model GLOBIOM (Global Biosphere Management Model) and robust dynamic downscaling model, based on cross-entropy principle, for deriving spatially resolved projections. The proposed procedure allows incorporating data from satellite images, statistics, expert opinions, as well as data from global land use models. In numerous case studies in China and Ukraine, the approach allowed to estimate local land use and land use change projections corresponding to real trends and expectations. The disaggregated data and projections were used in national models for planning sustainable land use and agricultural development

The future of food security, environments and livelihoods in Eastern Africa: four socio-economic scenarios

This report presents 4 scenarios for the future of food security, agriculture, livelihoods and environments in East Africa. These scenarios were developed by the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security in collaboration with a wide range of regional stakeholders. The report discusses the theory and development process of the scenarios, then presents detailed scenario narratives, semi-quantitative assumptions for a range of indicators, and finally outputs generated by 2 agricultural economic models, IMPACT and GLOBIOM. The report goes on to discuss the key results from the scenarios and then to describe the use of the scenarios in processes to guide decision-making in the context of East African food security and climate adaptation

Climate-induced severe water scarcity events as harbinger of global grain price

The severe water scarcity (SWS) concept allows for consistent analysis of the supply and demand for water sourced grain production worldwide. Thus, the primary advantage of using SWS is its ability to simultaneously accommodate the spatial extent and temporal persistence of droughts using climatic data. The SWS concept was extended here to drivers of global grain prices using past SWS events and prices of three dominant grain crops: wheat, rice and maize. A significant relation between the SWS affected area and the prices of wheat was confirmed. The past price–SWS association was then used to project future wheat prices considering likely climate change scenarios until 2050 and expected SWS extent. The projected wheat prices increase with increasing SWS area that is in turn a function of greenhouse gas emissions. The need to act to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is again reinforced assuming the SWS-price relation for wheat is unaltered

Adherence to EAT-Lancet dietary recommendations for health and sustainability in the Gambia

Facilitating dietary change is pivotal to improving population health, increasing food system resilience, and minimizing adverse impacts on the environment, but assessment of the current 'status-quo' and identification of bottlenecks for improvement has been lacking to date. We assessed deviation of the Gambian diet from the EAT-Lancet guidelines for healthy and sustainable diets and identified leverage points to improve nutritional and planetary health. We analysed the 2015/16 Gambian Integrated Household Survey dataset comprising food consumption data from 12 713 households. Consumption of different food groups was compared against the EAT-Lancet reference diet targets to assess deviation from the guidelines. We computed a 'sustainable and healthy diet index (SHDI)' based on deviation of different food groups from the EAT-Lancet recommendations and modelled the socio-economic and geographic determinants of households that achieved higher scores on this index, using multivariable mixed effects regression. The average Gambian diet had very low adherence to EAT-Lancet recommendations. The diet was dominated by refined grains and added sugars which exceeded the recommendations. SHDI scores for nutritionally important food groups such as fruits, vegetables, nuts, dairy, poultry, and beef and lamb were low. Household characteristics associated with higher SHDI scores included: being a female-headed household, having a relatively small household size, having a schooled head of the household, having a high wealth index, and residing in an urban settlement. Furthermore, diets reported in the dry season and households with high crop production diversity showed increased adherence to the targets. While average Gambian diets include lower amounts of food groups with harmful environmental footprint, they are also inadequate in healthy food groups and are high in sugar. There are opportunities to improve diets without increasing their environmental footprint by focusing on the substitution of refined grains by wholegrains, reducing sugar and increasing fruit and vegetables consumption

The future of food security, environments and livelihoods in Western Africa: Four socio-economic scenarios

This working paper examines the development of regional socioeconomic scenarios for West Africa’s development, agriculture, food security and climate impacts. We present four globally consistent regional scenarios framed and outlined by regional experts who crafted narratives and determined key drivers of change. Stakeholders identified the type of actors driving change and the timeline of strategic planning as the most uncertain and most relevant factors of change affecting food security, livelihoods and environments in the region. The scenarios were linked to the IPCC community’s global Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and quantified using two agricultural economic models, GLOBIOM and IMPACT, in interaction with drivers outlined by the SSPs and guided by semi-quantitative information from the stakeholders. The quantification of the scenarios has provided additional insights into the possible development of Western Africa in the context of a global economy as well as how the agricultural sector may be affected by climate change. The scenarios process highlights the need to combine socio-economic and climate scenarios, to base these scenarios in regional expertise, and ways to make scenarios useful for policy design. The objective of this working paper is to provide scenarios for future regional development for West Africa on the future of food security, environment, and rural livelihoods as well as offer details of the multi-stakeholder scenarios development process. Using both qualitative and quantitative scenarios we provide insights into the possible development of West Africa as well as a scalable framework for regional decision makers and the scientific community to use scenarios to build and test policies to make them more robust in the face of future uncertainty. In these scenarios, strong economic development increases food security and agricultural development. Increased crop and livestock productivity may lead to an expansion of agricultural areas within the region but productivity improvements may reduce the pressure on land elsewhere. In the context of a global economy, West Africa remains a large consumer and producer of a selection of commodities. However, the growth in population in combination with rising incomes may lead to increases in the region’s imports. For West Africa, climate change is likely to have negative effects on both crop yields and grassland productivity, and lack of investment in agriculture may exacerbate them. The aim of the regional scenarios is provide challenging contexts for policy makers to test and develop a range of national and regional policies. To date, the scenarios have been used in a number of policy design processes which include collaborations with ECOWAS priority setting, the National Plan for the Rural Sector for Burkina Faso (PNSR), and district and national level policy processes in Ghana

Динамические тенденции в становлении предмета лингвоэкологии

Экологизация всех сфер общественной жизни и самого человека широко обсуждается во многих наука, а также и в области языка. Во многих работах лингвистов экология языка определяется как наука о взаимоотношениях между языком и его окружением, так как язык существует не только в сознании говорящих на нем и функционирует только при взаимоотношениях с другими коммуникантами и с их социальным и природным окружением. В этом контексте понятие «языковое сознание» представляет собой специфическую картину взаимосвязи культуры и общественной жизни социума, которая определяет его психологическое своеобразие и специфические черты данного языка

Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Uses (Chapter 7)

The Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector encompasses managed ecosystems and offers significant mitigation opportunities while delivering food, wood and other renewable resources as well as biodiversity conservation, provided the sector adapts to climate change. Land-based mitigation measures represent some of the most important options currently available. They can both deliver carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and substitute for fossil fuels, thereby enabling emissions reductions in other sectors. The rapid deployment of AFOLU measures is essential in all pathways staying within the limits of the remaining budget for a 1.5°C target (high confidence). Where carefully and appropriately implemented, AFOLU mitigation measures are uniquely positioned to deliver substantial co-benefits and help address many of the wider challenges associated with land management. If AFOLU measures are deployed badly then, when taken together with the increasing need to produce sufficient food, feed, fuel and wood, they may exacerbate trade-offs with the conservation of habitats, adaptation, biodiversity and other services. At the same time the capacity of the land to support these functions may be threatened by climate change itself (high confidence)

Global hunger and climate change adaptation through international trade

International trade enables us to exploit regional differences in climate change impacts and is increasingly regarded as a potential adaptation mechanism. Here, we focus on hunger reduction through international trade under alternative trade scenarios for a wide range of climate futures. Under the current level of trade integration, climate change would lead to up to 55 million people who are undernourished in 2050. Without adaptation through trade, the impacts of global climate change would increase to 73 million people who are undernourished (+33%). Reduction in tariffs as well as institutional and infrastructural barriers would decrease the negative impact to 20 million (−64%) people. We assess the adaptation effect of trade and climate-induced specialization patterns. The adaptation effect is strongest for hunger-affected import-dependent regions. However, in hunger-affected export-oriented regions, partial trade integration can lead to increased exports at the expense of domestic food availability. Although trade integration is a key component of adaptation, it needs sensitive implementation to benefit all regions

A low energy demand scenario for meeting the 1.5 °C target and sustainable development goals without negative emission technologies

Scenarios that limit global warming to 1.5 °C describe major transformations in energy supply and ever-rising energy demand. Here, we provide a contrasting perspective by developing a narrative of future change based on observable trends that results in low energy demand. We describe and quantify changes in activity levels and energy intensity in the global North and global South for all major energy services. We project that global final energy demand by 2050 reduces to 245 EJ, around 40% lower than today, despite rises in population, income and activity. Using an integrated assessment modelling framework, we show how changes in the quantity and type of energy services drive structural change in intermediate and upstream supply sectors (energy and land use). Down-sizing the global energy system dramatically improves the feasibility of a low-carbon supply-side transformation. Our scenario meets the 1.5 °C climate target as well as many sustainable development goals, without relying on negative emission technologies