Latent class analysis was accurate but sensitive in data simulations

Objectives: Latent class methods are increasingly being used in analysis of developmental trajectories. A recent simulation study by Twisk and Hoekstra (2012) suggested caution in use of these methods because they failed to accurately identify developmental patterns that had been artificially imposed on a real data set. This article tests whether existing developmental patterns within the data set used might have obscured the imposed patterns.<p></p> Study Design and Setting: Data were simulated to match the latent class pattern in the previous article, but with varying levels of randomly generated variance, rather than variance carried over from a real data set. Latent class analysis (LCA) was then used to see if the latent class structure could be accurately identified.<p></p> Results: LCA performed very well at identifying the simulated latent class structure, even when the level of variance was similar to that reported in the previous study, although misclassification began to be more problematic with considerably higher levels of variance.<p></p> Conclusion: The failure of LCA to replicate the imposed patterns in the previous study may have been because it was sensitive enough to detect residual patterns of population heterogeneity within the altered data. LCA performs well at classifying developmental trajectories.<p></p&gt

Measuring Segmented Primary Mirror WFE in the Presence of Vibration and Thermal Drift on the Light-Weighted JWST

The light-weighted design of the Optical Telescope Element (OTE) of the James Webb Telescope (JWST) leads to additional sensitivity to vibration from the ground - an important consideration to the measurement uncertainty of the wavefront error (WFE) in the primary mirror. Furthermore, segmentation of the primary mirror leads to rigid-body movements of segment areas in the WFE. The ground vibrations are minimized with modifications to the test facility, and by the architecture of the equipment supporting the load. Additional special test equipment (including strategically placed isolators, tunable mass dampers, and cryogenic magnetic dampers) mitigates the vibration and the response sensitivity before reaching the telescope. A multi-wavelength interferometer is designed and operated to accommodate the predicted residual vibration. Thermal drift also adds to the measurement variation. Test results of test equipment components, measurement theory, and finite element analysis combine to predict the test uncertainty in the future measurement of the primary mirror. The vibration input to the finite element model comes from accelerometer measurements of the facility with the environmental control pumps operating. One of the isolators have been built and tested to validate the dynamic performance. A preliminary model of the load support equipment and the OTE with the Integrated Science Instrument Module (ISIM) is complete. The performance of the add-on dampers have been established in previous applications. And operation of the multi-wavelength interferometer was demonstrated on a scaled hardware version of the JWST in an environment with vibration and thermal drift

SMART Binary: Sample Size Calculation for Comparing Adaptive Interventions in SMART studies with Longitudinal Binary Outcomes

Sequential Multiple-Assignment Randomized Trials (SMARTs) play an increasingly important role in psychological and behavioral health research. This experimental approach enables researchers to answer scientific questions about how to sequence and match interventions to the unique, changing needs of individuals. A variety of sample size planning resources for SMART studies have been developed in recent years; these enable researchers to plan SMARTs for addressing different types of scientific questions. However, relatively limited attention has been given to planning SMARTs with binary (dichotomous) outcomes, which often require higher sample sizes relative to continuous outcomes. Existing resources for estimating sample size requirements for SMARTs with binary outcomes do not consider the potential to improve power by including a baseline measurement and/or multiple repeated outcome measurements. The current paper addresses this issue by providing sample size simulation code and approximate formulas for two-wave repeated measures binary outcomes (i.e., two measurement times for the outcome variable, before and after receiving the intervention). The simulation results agree well with the formulas. We also discuss how to use simulations to calculate power for studies with more than two outcome measurement occasions. The results show that having at least one repeated measurement of the outcome can substantially improve power under certain conditions.Comment: 73 pages, 2 figures, submitted to Multivariate Behavioral Researc

Tybet a komunistyczne Chiny (1949–1951)

Tibet and Communist China (1949–1951)The victory of the Chinese communists and the proclamation of the PRC on 1st October 1949 automatically confronted a new Chinese leaders with the issue of ‘liberation’ of Tibet. The coordinated propaganda campaign has started, in which the leading role played the Xinhua News Agency and the authority of the CCP party – the People’s Daily (‘Renmin Ribao’). The importance of the issue followed from the fact that Mao Zedong personally directed the entire action, and personally revised most of the texts concerning Tibet. In fact, the official formula of ‘peaceful liberation’ promoted by Beijing, meant the incorporation of Tibet with the consent of local authorities. Hence, the concept of a ‘gradual approach’ developed by Mao, anticipating the absorption of Tibet mainly by peaceful means, gradation of transformation, avoiding radical reforms and action by gentle persuasion. It may be recalled that at that time the use of military force was treated by Mao as finality. As soon has turned out, along with political, diplomatic and propaganda preparations intensive preparations for the military operation were undertaken in Beijing. The article presents the successive stages of the Chinese conquest of Tibet, which eventually ended with a Chinese military invasion, coincidentally in the same period, while on the Korean Peninsula Korean War broke out

Explosive Processes during the 2015 Eruption of Axial Seamount, as Recorded by Seafloor Hydrophones

Following the installation of the Ocean Observatories Initiative cabled array, the 2015 eruption of Axial Seamount, Juan de Fuca ridge, became the first submarine eruption to be captured in real time by seafloor seismic and acoustic instruments. This eruption also marked the first instance where the entire eruption cycle of a submarine volcano, from the previous eruption in 2011 to the end of the month-long 2015 event, was monitored continuously using autonomous ocean bottom hydrophones. Impulsive sounds associated with explosive lava-water interactions are identified within hydrophone records during both eruptions. Explosions within the caldera are acoustically distinguishable from those occurring in association with north rift lava flows erupting in 2015. Acoustic data also record a series of broadband diffuse events, occurring in the waning phase of the eruption, and are interpreted as submarine Hawaiian explosions. This transition from gas-poor to gas-rich eruptive activity coincides with an increase in water temperature within the caldera and with a decrease in the rate of deflation. The last recorded diffuse events coincide with the end of the eruption, represented by the onset of inflation. All the observed explosion signals couple strongly into the water column, and only weakly into the solid Earth, demonstrating the importance of hydroacoustic observations as a complement to seismic and geodetic studies of submarine eruptions. Plain Language Summary: Axial Seamount, a submarine volcano on the Juan de Fuca ridge, erupted in 2015. This eruption was recorded in real-time by an array of seafloor seismometers and hydrophones located on the volcano, and connected to shore by a power and data cable. Hydrophones recording the sounds generated by the eruption reveal several different types of explosions, including short bursts interpreted as lava-water interactions, and prolonged signals thought to be due to explosive ejection of gas and ash. These signals provide a window into the dynamics of the undersea eruption and are an excellent complement to other types of data including earthquakes and ground deformation

Hydrothermal discharge during submarine eruptions : the importance of detection, response, and new technology

Author Posting. © The Oceanography Society, 2012. This article is posted here by permission of The Oceanography Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Oceanography 25, no. 1 (2012): 128–141, doi:10.5670/oceanog.2012.11.Submarine volcanic eruptions and intrusions construct new oceanic crust and build long chains of volcanic islands and vast submarine plateaus. Magmatic events are a primary agent for the transfer of heat, chemicals, and even microbes from the crust to the ocean, but the processes that control these transfers are poorly understood. The 1980s discovery that mid-ocean ridge eruptions are often associated with brief releases of immense volumes of hot fluids ("event plumes") spurred interest in methods for detecting the onset of eruptions or intrusions and for rapidly organizing seagoing response efforts. Since then, some 35 magmatic events have been recognized and responded to on mid-ocean ridges and at seamounts in both volcanic arc and intraplate settings. Field responses at mid-ocean ridges have found that event plumes occur over a wide range of eruption styles and sizes, and thus may be a common consequence of ridge eruptions. The source(s) of event plume fluids are still debated. Eruptions detected at ridges generally have high effusion rates and short durations (hours to days), whereas field responses at arc volcanic cones have found eruptions with very low effusion rates and durations on the scale of years. New approaches to the study of submarine magmatic events include the development of autonomous vehicles for detection and response, and the establishment of permanent seafloor observatories at likely future eruption sites.Support for these efforts came from the NOAA Vents Program and the National Science Foundation, primarily through its long-term funding of the RIDGE and Ridge 2000 Programs, including grants OCE-9812294 and OCE-0222069. SOSUS detection efforts were supported from 2006 to 2009 by the National Science Foundation, grant OCE-0623649

January 2006 seafloor-spreading event at 9°50′N, East Pacific Rise: Ridge dike intrusion and transform fault interactions from regional hydroacoustic data

An array of autonomous underwater hydrophones is used to investigate regional seismicity associated with the 22 January 2006 seafloor-spreading event on the northern East Pacific Rise near 9°50′N. Significant earthquake activity was observed beginning 3 weeks prior to the eruption, where a total of 255 earthquakes were detected within the vicinity of the 9°50′N area. This was followed by a series of 252 events on 22 January and a rapid decline to background seismicity levels during the subsequent 3 days. Because of their small magnitudes, accurate locations could be derived for only 20 of these events, 18 of which occurred during a 1-h period on 22 January. These earthquakes cluster near 9°45′N and 9°55′N, at the distal ends of the young lava flows identified posteruption, where the activity displays a distinct spatial-temporal pattern, alternating from the north to the south and then back to the north. This implies either rapid bilateral propagation along the rift or the near-simultaneous injection of melt vertically from the axial magma lens. Short-duration T wave risetimes are consistent with the eruption of lavas in the vicinity of 9°50′N on 22 January 2006. Eruptions on 12 and 15–16 January also may be inferred from the risetime data; however, the locations of these smaller-magnitude events cannot be determined accurately. Roughly 15 h after the last earthquakes were located adjacent to the eruption site, a sequence of 16 earthquakes began to the north-northeast at a distance of 25–40 km from the 9°50′N site. These events are located in vicinity of the Clipperton Transform and its western inside corner, an area from which the regional hydrophone network routinely detects seismicity. Coulomb stress modeling indicates that a dike intrusion spanning the known eruptive zone to the south (9°46′–9°56′N) would act to promote normal faulting or a combination of normal faulting and transform slip within this region, with stress changes on the order of 1–10 kPa

Spatiotemporal distribution of the seismicity along the Mid-Atlantic Ridge north of the Azores from hydroacoustic data: Insights into seismogenic processes in a ridge-hot spot context

The seismicity of the North Atlantic was monitored from May 2002 to September 2003 by the 'SIRENA array' of autonomous hydrophones. The hydroacoustic signals provide a unique data set documenting numerous low-magnitude earthquakes along the section of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge (MAR) located in a ridge-hot spot interaction context. During the experiment, 1696 events were detected along the MAR axis between 40 degrees N and 51 degrees N, with a magnitude of completeness level of m(b) approximate to 2.4. Inside the array, location errors are in the order of 2 km, and errors in the origin time are less than 1 s. From this catalog, 15 clusters were detected. The distribution of source level (SL) versus time within each cluster is used to discriminate clusters occurring in a tectonic context from those attributed to non-tectonic (i.e. volcanic or hydrothermal) processes. The location of tectonic and non-tectonic sequences correlates well with regions with positive and negative Mantle Bouguer Anomalies (MBAs), indicating the presence of thinner/colder and thicker/warmer crust respectively. At the scale of the entire array, both the complete and declustered catalogs derived from the hydroacoustic signals show an increase of the seismicity rate from the Azores up to 43 degrees 30'N suggesting a diminishing influence of the Azores hot spot on the ridge-axis temperature, and well correlated with a similar increase in the along-axis MBAs. The comparison of the MAR seismicity with the Residual MBA (RMBA) at different scales leads us to think that the low-magnitude seismicity rates are directly related to along-axis variations in lithosphere rheology and temperatures.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

A Pulsed-air Model of Blue Whale B Call Vocalizations

Blue whale sound production has been thought to occur by Helmholtz resonance via air flowing from the lungs into the upper respiratory spaces. This implies that the frequency of blue whale vocalizations might be directly proportional to the size of their sound-producing organs. Here we present a sound production mechanism where the fundamental and overtone frequencies of blue whale B calls can be well modeled using a series of short-duration (\u3c1 \u3es) wavelets. We propose that the likely source of these wavelets are pneumatic pulses caused by opening and closing of respiratory valves during air recirculation between the lungs and laryngeal sac. This vocal production model is similar to those proposed for humpback whales, where valve open/closure and vocal fold oscillation is passively driven by airflow between the lungs and upper respiratory spaces, and implies call frequencies could be actively changed by the animal to center fundamental tones at different frequency bands during the call series

Trends Among U.S. High School Seniors in Recent Marijuana Use and Associations With Other Substances: 1976–2013

To describe historical trends in rates of recent substance use, and associations between marijuana and other substances, among United States high school seniors by race and gender