Orbital debris measurements

What is currently known about the orbital debris flux is from a combination of ground based and in-space measurements. These measurements have revealed an increasing population with decreasing size. A summary of measurements is presented for the following sources: the North American Aerospace Defense Command Catalog, the Perimeter Acquisition and Attack Characterization System Radar, ground based optical telescopes, the Explorer 46 Meteoroid Bumper Experiment, spacecraft windows, and Solar Max surfaces

The Impact of Covid-19 on Future Higher-Age Mortality

Covid-19 has predominantly affected mortality at high ages. It kills by inflaming and clogging the air sacs in the lungs, depriving the body of oxygen ‒ inducing hypoxia ‒ which closes down essential organs, in particular the heart, kidneys and liver, and causes blood clots (which can lead to stroke or pulmonary embolism) and neurological malfunction. Evidence from different countries points to the fact that people who die from Covid-19 are often, but not always, much less healthy than the average for their age group. This is true for England & Wales – the two countries we focus on in this study. The implication is that the years of life lost through early death are less than the average for each age group, with how much less being a source of considerable debate. We argue that many of those who die from coronavirus would have died anyway in the relatively near future due to their existing frailties or co-morbidities. We demonstrate how to capture this link to poorer-than-average health using a model in which individual deaths are ‘accelerated’ ahead of schedule due to Covid-19. The model structure and its parameterization build on the observation that Covid-19 mortality by age is approximately proportional to all-cause mortality. This, in combination with current predictions of total deaths, results in the important conclusion that, everything else being equal, the impact of Covid-19 on the mortality rates of the surviving population will be very modest. Specifically, the degree of anti-selection is likely to be very small, since the life expectancy of survivors does not increase by a significant amount over pre-pandemic levels. We also analyze the degree to which Covid-19 mortality varies with socio-economic status. Headline statistics suggest that the most deprived groups have been disproportionately affected by Covid-19. However, once we control for regional differences in mortality rates, Covid-19 deaths in both the most and least deprived groups are also proportional to the all-cause mortality of these groups. However, the groups in between have approximately 10-15% lower Covid-19 deaths compared with their all-cause mortality. We argue that useful lessons about the potential pattern of accelerated deaths from Covid-19 can be drawn from examining deaths from respiratory diseases, especially at different age ranges. We also argue that it is possible to draw useful lessons about volatility spikes in Covid-19 deaths from examining past seasonal flu epidemics. However, there is an important difference. Whereas the spikes in seasonal flu increase with age, our finding that Covid-19 death rates are approximately proportional to all-cause mortality suggests that any spike in Covid-19 mortality in percentage terms would be similar across all age ranges. Finally, we discuss some of the indirect consequences for future mortality of the pandemic and the ‘lockdown’ measures governments have imposed to contain it. For example, there is evidence that some surviving patients at all ages who needed intensive care could end up with a new impairment, such as organ damage, which will reduce their life expectancy. There is also evidence that many people in lockdown did not seek a timely medical assessment for a potential new illness, such as cancer, or deferred seeking treatment for an existing serious illness, with the consequence that non-Covid-19-related mortality rates could increase in future. Self-isolation during lockdown has contributed to an increase in alcohol and drug consumption by some people which might, in turn, reduce their life expectancy. If another consequence of the pandemic is a recession and/or an acceleration in job automation, resulting in long-term unemployment, then this could lead to so-called ‘deaths of despair’ in future. Other people, by contrast, might permanently change their social behaviour or seek treatments that delay the impact or onset of age-related diseases, one of the primary factors that make people more susceptible to the virus – both of which could have the effect of increasing their life expectancy. It is, however, too early to quantify these possibilities, although it is conceivable that these indirect consequences could have a bigger impact on future average life expectancy than the direct consequences measured by the accelerated deaths model

Nonlinear lattice model of viscoelastic Mode III fracture

We study the effect of general nonlinear force laws in viscoelastic lattice models of fracture, focusing on the existence and stability of steady-state Mode III cracks. We show that the hysteretic behavior at small driving is very sensitive to the smoothness of the force law. At large driving, we find a Hopf bifurcation to a straight crack whose velocity is periodic in time. The frequency of the unstable bifurcating mode depends on the smoothness of the potential, but is very close to an exact period-doubling instability. Slightly above the onset of the instability, the system settles into a exactly period-doubled state, presumably connected to the aforementioned bifurcation structure. We explicitly solve for this new state and map out its velocity-driving relation

The Targeting of the atToc159 Preprotein Receptor to the Chloroplast Outer Membrane is Mediated by its GTPase Domain and is Regulated by GTP

The multimeric translocon at the outer envelope membrane of chloroplasts (Toc) initiates the recognition and import of nuclear-encoded preproteins into chloroplasts. Two Toc GTPases, Toc159 and Toc33/34, mediate preprotein recognition and regulate preprotein translocation. Although these two proteins account for the requirement of GTP hydrolysis for import, the functional significance of GTP binding and hydrolysis by either GTPase has not been defined. A recent study indicates that Toc159 is equally distributed between a soluble cytoplasmic form and a membrane-inserted form, raising the possibility that it might cycle between the cytoplasm and chloroplast as a soluble preprotein receptor. In the present study, we examined the mechanism of targeting and insertion of the Arabidopsis thaliana orthologue of Toc159, atToc159, to chloroplasts. Targeting of atToc159 to the outer envelope membrane is strictly dependent only on guanine nucleotides. Although GTP is not required for initial binding, the productive insertion and assembly of atToc159 into the Toc complex requires its intrinsic GTPase activity. Targeting is mediated by direct binding between the GTPase domain of atToc159 and the homologous GTPase domain of atToc33, the Arabidopsis Toc33/34 orthologue. Our findings demonstrate a role for the coordinate action of the Toc GTPases in assembly of the functional Toc complex at the chloroplast outer envelope membrane

Microscopic Selection of Fluid Fingering Pattern

We study the issue of the selection of viscous fingering patterns in the limit of small surface tension. Through detailed simulations of anisotropic fingering, we demonstrate conclusively that no selection independent of the small-scale cutoff (macroscopic selection) occurs in this system. Rather, the small-scale cutoff completely controls the pattern, even on short time scales, in accord with the theory of microscopic solvability. We demonstrate that ordered patterns are dynamically selected only for not too small surface tensions. For extremely small surface tensions, the system exhibits chaotic behavior and no regular pattern is realized.Comment: 6 pages, 5 figure

Two-finger selection theory in the Saffman-Taylor problem

We find that solvability theory selects a set of stationary solutions of the Saffman-Taylor problem with coexistence of two \it unequal \rm fingers advancing with the same velocity but with different relative widths $\lambda_1$ and $\lambda_2$ and different tip positions. For vanishingly small dimensionless surface tension $d_0$, an infinite discrete set of values of the total filling fraction $\lambda = \lambda_1 + \lambda_2$ and of the relative individual finger width $p=\lambda_1/\lambda_2$ are selected out of a two-parameter continuous degeneracy. They scale as $\lambda-1/2 \sim d_0^{2/3}$ and $|p-1/2| \sim d_0^{1/3}$. The selected values of $\lambda$ differ from those of the single finger case. Explicit approximate expressions for both spectra are given.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figure

The Universal Gaussian in Soliton Tails

We show that in a large class of equations, solitons formed from generic initial conditions do not have infinitely long exponential tails, but are truncated by a region of Gaussian decay. This phenomenon makes it possible to treat solitons as localized, individual objects. For the case of the KdV equation, we show how the Gaussian decay emerges in the inverse scattering formalism.Comment: 4 pages, 2 figures, revtex with eps

Orbital debris environment for spacecraft designed to operate in low Earth orbit

The orbital debris environment model is intended to be used by the spacecraft community for the design and operation of spacecraft in low Earth orbit. This environment, when combined with material-dependent impact tests and spacecraft failure analysis, is intended to be used to evaluate spacecraft vulnerability, reliability, and shielding requirements. The environment represents a compromise between existing data to measure the environment, modeling of this data to predict the future environment, the uncertainty in both measurements and modeling, and the need to describe the environment so that various options concerning spacecraft design and operations can be easily evaluated

Phase-Field Model of Mode III Dynamic Fracture

We introduce a phenomenological continuum model for mode III dynamic fracture that is based on the phase-field methodology used extensively to model interfacial pattern formation. We couple a scalar field, which distinguishes between ``broken'' and ``unbroken'' states of the system, to the displacement field in a way that consistently includes both macroscopic elasticity and a simple rotationally invariant short scale description of breaking. We report two-dimensional simulations that yield steady-state crack motion in a strip geometry above the Griffith threshold.Comment: submitted to PR