Is the future blue-green? A review of the current model predictions of how climate change could affect pelagic freshwater cyanobacteria

There is increasing evidence that recent changes in climate have had an effect on lake phytoplankton communities and it has been suggested that it is likely that Cyanobacteria will increase in relative abundance under the predicted future climate. However, testing such a qualitative prediction is challenging and usually requires some form of numerical computer model. Therefore, the lake modelling literature was reviewed for studies that examined the impact of climate change upon Cyanobacteria. These studies, taken collectively, generally show an increase in relative Cyanobacteria abundance with increasing water temperature, decreased flushing rate and increased nutrient loads. Furthermore, they suggest that whilst the direct effects of climate change on the lakes can change the timing of bloom events and Cyanobacteria abundance, the amount of phytoplankton biomass produced over a year is not enhanced directly by these changes. Also, warmer waters in the spring increased nutrient consumption by the phytoplankton community which in some lakes caused nitrogen limitation later in the year to the advantage of some nitrogen-fixing Cyanobacteria. Finally, it is also possible that an increase in Cyanobacteria dominance of the phytoplankton biomass will lead to poorer energy flow to higher trophic levels due to their relatively poor edibility for zooplankton

Modelling lake phytoplankton communities: recent applications of the PROTECH model

Understanding and modelling the development of lake phytoplankton communities is a desirable goal, given the importance of these organisms to their ecosystem. PROTECH (Phytoplankton RespOnses To Environmental CHange) is one such model which attempts to do this and its applications over the last 10 years are reviewed here. These studies include: modelling very large lakes, linking catchment models to PROTECH, simulating oxygen concentrations, understanding the importance of nutrient source in moderating the influence of hydraulic retention time. Furthermore, the merits of ensemble lake modelling are considered, as are the limits of short term forecasting of blooms. Finally, climate change influences are examined with studies that include nutrient changes and an experiment that attempts to separate the influences of temperature and mixed depth

Divergence or convergence? Health inequalities and policy in a devolved Britain

Since the advent of political devolution in the UK, it has been widely reported that markedly different health policies have emerged. However, most of these analyses are based on a comparison of health care policies and, as such, only tell part of a complex and evolving story. This paper considers official responses to a shared public health policy aim, the reduction of health inequalities, through an examination of national policy statements produced in England, Scotland and Wales respectively since 1997. The analysis suggests that the relatively consistent manner in which the ‘policy problem’ of health inequalities has been framed combined with the dominance of a medical model of health have constrained policy responses. Our findings differ from existing analyses, raising some important questions about the actuality of, and scope for, policy divergence since devolution

Predicting the habitat expansion of the invasive roach Rutilus rutilus (Actinopterygii, Cyprinidae), in Great Britain

The roach is influential ecologically and has a preference for water temperatures >12°C. In this study, we attempted to predict its habitat expansion in response to global warming, hypothesing its increase in Great Britain. Historical data for air temperature over different time scales (annual, seasonal, monthly and daily) and for the presence of roach in Great Britain were used to create four Ecological Niche Models. Mean seasonal air temperature (EncRoach-S) was the best predictor. Using EncRoach-S, two future climate scenarios were tested: a sensitivity test (i.e. incrementally increasing temperature values by 1°C), and using air temperature data from UKCIP 11-member ensemble of climate change projections for 2031–2040, 2061–2070 and 2091–2100. Both approaches predicted an increase in habitat suitability in Great Britain with rising air temperatures but the extent of change differed for England, Wales and Scotland. In England, the rate of expansion was initially slow but rapidly increased mid-century leading to 88% coverage by the century end. In Wales, there was a greater increase by the century end and a similar trend in Scotland. This study supports the conjecture that a rise in air temperature over the next few decades will lead to an increase in potential roach habitat

Thin films of Type 1 collagen for cell by cell analysis of morphology and tenascin-C promoter activity

BACKGROUND: The use of highly reproducible and spatiallyhomogeneous thin film matrices permits automated microscopy and quantitative determination of the response of hundreds of cells in a population. Using thin films of extracellular matrix proteins, we have quantified, on a cell-by-cell basis, phenotypic parameters of cells on different extracellular matrices. We have quantitatively examined the relationship between fibroblast morphology and activation of the promoter for the extracellular matrix protein tenascin-C using a tenascin-C promoter-based GFP reporter construct. RESULTS: We find that when considering the average response from the population of cells, cell area correlates with tenascin-C promoter activity as has been previously suggested; however cell-by-cell analysis suggests that cell area and promoter activity are not tightly correlated within individual cells. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates how quantitative cell-by-cell analysis, facilitated by the use of thin films of extracellular matrix proteins, can provide insight into the relationship between phenotypic parameters

Mid-term functional outcome after the internal fixation of distal radius fractures

RIGHTS : This article is licensed under the BioMed Central licence at http://www.biomedcentral.com/about/license which is similar to the 'Creative Commons Attribution Licence'. In brief you may : copy, distribute, and display the work; make derivative works; or make commercial use of the work - under the following conditions: the original author must be given credit; for any reuse or distribution, it must be made clear to others what the license terms of this work are.Abstract Background Distal radius fracture is a common injury with a variety of operative and non-operative management options. There remains debate as to the optimal treatment for a given patient and fracture. Despite the popularity of volar locking plate fixation, there are few large cohort or long term follow up studies to justify this modality. Our aim was to report the functional outcome of a large number of patients at a significant follow up time after fixation of their distal radius with a volar locking plate. Methods 180 patients with 183 fractures and a mean age of 62.4 years were followed up retrospectively at a mean of 30 months (Standard deviation = 10.4). Functional assessment was performed using the Disabilities of the Arm, Shoulder and Hand (DASH) and modified MAYO wrist scores. Statistical analysis was performed to identify possible variables affecting outcome and radiographs were assessed to determine time to fracture union. Results The median DASH score was 2.3 and median MAYO score was 90 for the whole group. Overall, 133 patients (74%) had a good or excellent DASH and MAYO score. Statistical analysis showed that no specific variable including gender, age, fracture type, post-operative immobilisation or surgeon grade significantly affected outcome. Complications occurred in 27 patients (15%) and in 11 patients were major (6%). Conclusion This single centre large population series demonstrates good to excellent results in the majority of patients after volar locking plate fixation of the distal radius, with complication rates comparable to other non-operative and operative treatment modalities. On this basis we recommend this mode of fixation for distal radius fractures requiting operative intervention.Peer Reviewe

Assessment of risks to public water supply from low flows and harmful water quality in a changing climate

Water resources planning and management by water utilities have traditionally been based on consideration of water availability. However, the reliability of public water supplies can also be influenced by the quality of water bodies. In this study, we proposed a framework that integrates the analysis of risks of inadequate water quality and risks of insufficient water availability. We have developed a coupled modeling system that combines hydrological modeling of river water quantity and quality, rules for water withdrawals from rivers into storage reservoirs, and dynamical simulation of harmful algal blooms in storage reservoirs. We use this framework to assess the impact of climate change, demand growth, and land‐use change on the reliability of public water supplies. The proposed method is tested on the River Thames catchment in the south of England. The results show that alongside the well‐known risks of rising water demand in the south of England and uncertain impacts of climate change, diffuse pollution from agriculture and effluent from upstream waste water treatment works potentially represent a threat to the reliability of public water supplies in London. We quantify the steps that could be taken to ameliorate these threats, though even a vigorous pollution‐prevention strategy would not be sufficient to offset the projected effects of climate change on water quality and the reliability of public water supplies. The proposed method can help water utilities to recognize their system vulnerability and evaluate the potential solutions to achieve more reliable water supplies. supplie

Modelling the impact of higher temperature on the phytoplankton of a boreal lake

We linked the models PROTECH and MyLake to test potential impacts of climate-changeinduced warming on the phytoplankton community of Pyhäjärvi, a lake in southwest Finland. First, we calibrated the models for the present conditions, which revealed an apparent high significance of internal nutrient loading for Pyhäjärvi. We then estimated the effect of two climate change scenarios on lake water temperatures and ice cover duration with MyLake. Finally, we used those outputs to drive PROTECH to predict the resultant phytoplankton community. It was evident that cyanobacteria will grow significantly better in warmer water, especially in the summer. Even if phosphorus and nitrogen loads to the lake remain the same and there is little change in the total chlorophyll a concentrations, a higher proportion of the phytoplankton community could be dominated by cyanobacteria. The model outputs provided no clear evidence that earlier ice break would advance the timing of the diatom spring bloom.peerReviewe

The past and future of phytoplankton in the UK's largest lake, Lough Neagh

Lough Neagh is the largest lake in the UK and has been extensively monitored since 1974. It has suffered from considerable eutrophication and toxic algal blooms. The lake continues to endure many of the symptoms of nutrient enrichment despite improvements in nutrient management throughout the catchment, in particular a permanently dominant crop of the cyanobacterium Planktothrix agardhii. This study examines the historical changes in the Lough, and uses the PROTECH lake model to predict how the phytoplankton community may adapt in response to potential future changes in air temperature and nutrient load. PROTECH was calibrated against 2008 observations, with a restriction on the maximum simulated mixed depth to reflect the shallow nature of the lake and the addition of sediment released phosphorus throughout the mixed water column between 1 May and 1 October (with an equivalent in-lake concentration of 2.0 mg m−3). The historical analysis showed that phytoplankton biomass (total chlorophyll a) experienced a steady decline since the mid-1990s. During the same period the key nutrients for phytoplankton growth in the lake have shown contrasting trends, with increases in phosphorus concentrations and declines in nitrate concentrations. The modelled future scenarios which simulated a temperature increase of up to 3 °C showed a continuation of those trends, i.e. total chlorophyll a and nitrate concentrations declined in the surface water, while phosphorus concentrations increased and P. agardhii dominated. However, scenarios which simulated a 4 °C increase in air temperature showed a switch in dominance to the cyanobacteria, Dolichospermum spp. (formerly Anabaena spp.). This change was caused by a temperature related increase in growth driving nutrient consumption to a point where nitrate was limiting, allowing the nitrogen-fixing Dolichospermum spp. to gain sufficient advantage. These results suggest that in the long term, one nuisance cyanobacteria bloom may only be replaced by another unless the in-lake phosphorus concentration can be greatly reduced