Between-Year Survival and Rank Transitions in Male Black-Capped Chickadees (\u3cem\u3ePoecile Atricapillus\u3c/em\u3e): A Multistate Modeling Approach

In dominance-structured animal societies, variation in individual fitness is often related to social status. Like many passerine birds, Black-capped Chickadees (Poecile atricapillus) have a short average adult life-expectancy (Ø2 years); however, the maximum recorded life span is \u3e5× as long. Enhanced annual survival could contribute to greater lifetime reproductive success for male Black-capped Chickadees with high social rank. We used multistate capture–mark–recapture models to estimate annual survival of male Black-capped Chickadees in Ontario using resighting and recapture data collected from 1997 to 2002. Our goal was to evaluate support for an influence of rank on annual survival and estimate its effect size for a food-supplemented study site. We also statistically modeled the probability of between-year rank transitions. Model selection based on Akaike’s information criterion provided support for an effect of rank on survival. However, multimodel inference revealed that the size of the effect was rather small. Over the six study years, model-averaged estimates of the survival benefit of high versus low rank ranged from 5.0 to 7.3%. As expected, survival was strongly year-dependent, with model-averaged estimates of annual survival probability varying between 0.36 and 0.73. Age was an important predictor of the probability of rank transitions. Low-ranked second-year birds were less likely than older low-ranked birds to advance to high rank between years; likewise, high-ranked after-second-year birds were less likely to drop in rank. Other studies have found larger effects of rank on survival than we observed here. Future research should consider how interactions between social and environmental factors influence annual survival

Microwave characterization of low-loss FDM 3-D printed ABS with dielectric-filled metal-pipe rectangular waveguide spectroscopy

Over time the accuracy and speed by which a material can be characterized should improve. Today, the Nicolson-Ross-Weir (NRW) methodology represents a well-established method for extracting complex dielectric properties at microwave frequencies, with the use of a modern vector network analyzer. However, as will be seen, this approach suffers from three fundamental limitations to accuracy. Challenging NRW methods requires a methodical and robust investigation. To this end, using a dielectric-filled metal-pipe rectangular waveguide, five independent approaches are employed to accurately characterize the sample at the Fabry-Pérot resonance frequency (non-frequency dispersive modeling). In addition, manual Graphical and automated Renormalization spectroscopic approaches are introduced for the first time in waveguide. The results from these various modeling strategies are then compared and contrasted to NRW approaches. As a timely exemplar, 3-D printed acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene (ABS) samples are characterized and the results compared with existing data available in the open literature. It is found that the various Fabry-Pérot resonance model results all agree with one another and validate the two new spectroscopic approaches; in so doing, exposing three limitations of the NRW methods. It is also shown that extracted dielectric properties for ABS differ from previously reported results and reasons for this are discussed. From measurement noise resilience analysis, a methodology is presented for determining the upper-bound signal-to-noise ratio for the vector network analyzer (not normally associated with such instrumentation). Finally, fused deposition modeling (FDM) 3-D printing results in a non-homogeneous sample that excites open-box mode resonances. This phenomenon is investigated for the first time, analytically and with various modeling strategies

Compliance with guidelines is related to better local recurrence-free survival in ductal carcinoma in situ

The aim was to study the effect of compliance with guidelines on local recurrence (LR)-free survival in patients treated for ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS). From January 1992 to December 2003, 251 consecutive patients had been treated for DCIS in two hospitals in the North Netherlands. Every case in this two-hospital sample was reviewed in retrospect for its clinical and pathological parameters. It was determined whether treatment had been carried out according to clinical guidelines, and outcomes in follow-up were assessed. In addition, all patients treated for DCIS in this region (n=1389) were studied regarding clinical parameters, in order to determine whether the two-hospital sample was representative of the entire region. In the two-hospital sample, 31.4% (n=79) of the patients had not been treated according to the guidelines. Positive margins were associated with LR (hazard ratio (HR)=4.790, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.696–13.531). Breast-conserving surgery and deviation from the guidelines were independent predictors of LR (HR=7.842, 95% CI 2.126–28.926; HR=2.778, 95% CI 0.982–6.781, respectively). Although the guidelines changed over time, time was not a significant factor in predicting LRs (HR=1.254, 95% CI 0.272–5.776 for time period 1992–1995 and HR=1.976, 95% CI 0.526–7.421 for time period 1996–1999). Clinical guidelines for the treatment of patients with DCIS have been developed and updated from existing literature and best evidence. Compliance with the guidelines was an independent predictor of disease-free survival. These findings support the application of guidelines in the treatment of DCIS

A criterion for the number of factors

This note proposes a new criterion for the determination of the number of factors in an approximate static factor model. The criterion is strongly associated with the scree test and compares the differences between consecutive eigenvalues to a threshold. The size of the threshold is derived from a hyperbola and depends only on the sample size and the number of factors k. Monte Carlo simulations compare its properties with well-established estimators from the literature. Our criterion shows similar results as the standard implementations of these estimators, but is not prone to a lack of robustness against a too large a priori determined maximum number of factors kmax

Keeping Your Eyes Continuously on the Ball While Running for Catchable and Uncatchable Fly Balls

When faced with a fly ball approaching along the sagittal plane, fielders need information for the control of their running to the interception location. This information could be available in the initial part of the ball trajectory, such that the interception location can be predicted from its initial conditions. Alternatively, such predictive information is not available, and running to the interception location involves continuous visual guidance. The latter type of control would predict that fielders keep looking at the approaching ball for most of its flight, whereas the former type of control would fit with looking at the ball during the early part of the ball's flight; keeping the eyes on the ball during the remainder of its trajectory would not be necessary when the interception location can be inferred from the first part of the ball trajectory. The present contribution studied visual tracking of approaching fly balls. Participants were equipped with a mobile eye tracker. They were confronted with tennis balls approaching from about 20 m, and projected in such a way that some balls were catchable and others were not. In all situations, participants almost exclusively tracked the ball with their gaze until just before the catch or until they indicated that a ball was uncatchable. This continuous tracking of the ball, even when running close to their maximum speeds, suggests that participants employed continuous visual control rather than running to an interception location known from looking at the early part of the ball flight.</p

Between-year survival and rank transitions in male black-capped chickadees (Poecile atricapillus): A multistate modeling approach

In dominance-structured animal societies, variation in individual fitness is often related to social status. Like many passerine birds, Black-capped Chickadees (Poecile atricapillus) have a short average adult life-expectancy (∼2 years); however, the maximum recorded life span is \u3e 5× as long. Enhanced annual survival could contribute to greater lifetime reproductive success for male Black-capped Chickadees with high social rank. We used multistate capture-mark-recapture models to estimate annual survival of male Black-capped Chickadees in Ontario using resighting and recapture data collected from 1997 to 2002. Our goal was to evaluate support for an influence of rank on annual survival and estimate its effect size for a food-supplemented study site. We also statistically modeled the probability of between-year rank transitions. Model selection based on Akaike\u27s information criterion provided support for an effect of rank on survival. However, multimodel inference revealed that the size of the effect was rather small. Over the six study years, model-averaged estimates of the survival benefit of high versus low rank ranged from 5.0 to 7.3%. As expected, survival was strongly year-dependent, with model-averaged estimates of annual survival probability varying between 0.36 and 0.73. Age was an important predictor of the probability of rank transitions. Low-ranked second-year birds were less likely than older low-ranked birds to advance to high rank between years; likewise, high-ranked after-second-year birds were less likely to drop in rank. Other studies have found larger effects of rank on survival than we observed here. Future research should consider how interactions between social and environmental factors influence annual survival. © The American Ornithologists\u27 Union, 2008

Vulnerable Users’ Perceptions of Transport Technologies

As the global population continues to grow, age and urbanize, it is vital to provide accessible transport so that neither ageing nor disability constitute barriers to social inclusion. While technology can enhance urban access, there is a need to study the ways by which transport technologies - real-time information, pedestrian navigation, surveillance, and road pricing - could be more effectively adopted by users. The reason for this is that some people, and particularly vulnerable populations, are still likely to reluctantly use (or even avoid using) technologies perceived as 'unknown' and 'complicated'. Based on evidence from British and Swedish case studies on older people's perceptions of the aforementioned transport technologies, as well as on a Swedish case study of visually impaired people's perceptions, this article makes the case that technology is only one tool in a complex socio-technical system, and one which brings challenges. The authors also suggest that although vulnerable populations are not homogeneous when expressing attitudes towards transport technologies, their assessment criteria tend to be 'pro-social' as they usually consider that the societal benefits outweigh the personal benefits. Emphasising aspects linked to the technologies' pro-social potential or relevance to the individual user could increase acceptance

The impact of organisational external peer review on colorectal cancer treatment and survival in the Netherlands

Background: Organisational external peer review was introduced in 1994 in the Netherlands to improve multidisciplinary cancer care. We examined the clinical impact of this programme on colorectal cancer care. Methods: Patients with primary colorectal cancer were included from 23 participating hospitals and 7 controls. Hospitals from the intervention group were dichotomised by their implementation proportion (IP) of the recommendations from each peer review (high IP vs low IP). Outcome measures were the introduction of new multidisciplinary therapies and survival. Results: In total, 45 705 patients were included (1990-2010). Patients from intervention hospitals more frequently received adjuvant chemotherapy for stage III colon cancer. T2-3/M0 rectal cancer patients from hospitals with a high IP had a higher chance of receiving preoperative radiotherapy (OR 1.31, 95% CI 1.11-1.55) compared with the controls and low IP group (OR 0.75, 95% CI 0.63-0.88). There were no differences in the use of preoperative chemoradiation for T4/M0 rectal cancer. Survival was slightly higher in colon cancer patients from intervention hospitals but unrelated to the phase of the programme in which the hospital was at the time of diagnosis. Conclusions: Some positive effects of external peer review on cancer care were found, but the results need to be interpreted cautiously due to the ambiguity of the outcomes and possible confounding factors

'Choosing shoes': a preliminary study into the challenges facing clinicians in assessing footwear for rheumatoid patients

Background: Footwear has been accepted as a therapeutic intervention for the foot affected by rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Evidence relating to the objective assessment of footwear in patients with RA is limited. The aims of this study were to identify current footwear styles, footwear characteristics, and factors that influence footwear choice experienced by patients with RA. Methods: Eighty patients with RA were recruited from rheumatology clinics during the summer months. Clinical characteristics, global function, and foot impairment and disability measures were recorded. Current footwear, footwear characteristics and the factors associated with choice of footwear were identified. Suitability of footwear was recorded using pre-determined criteria for assessing footwear type, based on a previous study of foot pain. Results: The patients had longstanding RA with moderate-to severe disability and impairment. The foot and ankle assessment demonstrated a low-arch profile with both forefoot and rearfoot structural deformities. Over 50% of shoes worn by patients were opentype footwear. More than 70% of patients’ footwear was defined as being poor. Poor footwear characteristics such as heel rigidity and sole hardness were observed. Patients reported comfort (17%) and fit (14%) as important factors in choosing their own footwear. Only five percent (5%) of patients wore therapeutic footwear. Conclusions: The majority of patients with RA wear footwear that has been previously described as poor. Future work needs to aim to define and justify the specific features of footwear that may be of benefit to foot health for people with RA

Estimating the Value of New Antimicrobials in the Context of Antimicrobial Resistance: Development and Application of a Dynamic Disease Transmission Model

Objectives Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) represents a significant threat to patient and population health. The study aim was to develop and validate a model of AMR that defines and quantifies the value of new antibiotics. Methods A dynamic disease transmission and cost-effectiveness model of AMR consisting of three components (disease transmission, treatment pathway and optimisation) was developed to evaluate the health economic value of new antibiotics. The model is based on the relationship between AMR, antimicrobial availability and consumption. Model analysis explored the impact of different antibiotic treatment strategies on the development of AMR, patient and population estimates of health benefit, across three common treatment indications and pathogens in the UK. Results Population-level resistance to existing antimicrobials was estimated to increase from 10.3 to 16.1% over 10 years based on current antibiotic availability and consumption. In comparison, the diversified use of a new antibiotic was associated with significant reduction in AMR (12.8% vs. 16.1%) and quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gains at a patient (7.7–10.3, dependent on antimicrobial efficacy) and population level (3657–8197, dependent on antimicrobial efficacy and the prevalence of AMR). Validation across several real-world data sources showed that the model output does not tend to systematically under- or over-estimate observed data. Conclusions The development of new antibiotics and the appropriate use of existing antibiotics are key to addressing the threat of AMR. This study presents a validated model that quantifies the value of new antibiotics through clinical and economic outcomes of relevance, and accounts for disease transmission of infection and development of AMR. In this context, the model may be a useful tool that could contribute to the decision-making process alongside other potential models and expert advice