Economic factors influencing zoonotic disease dynamics: demand for poultry meat and seasonal transmission of avian influenza in Vietnam

While climate is often presented as a key factor influencing the seasonality of diseases, the importance of anthropogenic factors is less commonly evaluated. Using a combination of methods-wavelet analysis, economic analysis, statistical and disease transmission modelling-we aimed to explore the influence of climatic and economic factors on the seasonality of H5N1 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in the domestic poultry population of Vietnam. We found that while climatic variables are associated with seasonal variation in the incidence of avian influenza outbreaks in the North of the country, this is not the case in the Centre and the South. In contrast, temporal patterns of H5N1 incidence are similar across these 3 regions: periods of high H5N1 incidence coincide with Lunar New Year festival, occurring in January-February, in the 3 climatic regions for 5 out of the 8 study years. Yet, daily poultry meat consumption drastically increases during Lunar New Year festival throughout the country. To meet this rise in demand, poultry production and trade are expected to peak around the festival period, promoting viral spread, which we demonstrated using a stochastic disease transmission model. This study illustrates the way in which economic factors may influence the dynamics of livestock pathogens

Computationally Directed Discovery of MoBi\u3csub\u3e2\u3c/sub\u3e

Incorporating bismuth, the heaviest element stable to radioactive decay, into new materials enables the creation of emergent properties such as permanent magnetism, superconductivity, and nontrivial topology. Understanding the factors that drive Bi reactivity is critical for the realization of these properties. Using pressure as a tunable synthetic vector, we can access unexplored regions of phase space to foster reactivity between elements that do not react under ambient conditions. Furthermore, combining computational and experimental methods for materials discovery at high-pressures provides broader insight into the thermodynamic landscape than can be achieved through experiment alone, informing our understanding of the dominant chemical factors governing structure formation. Herein, we report our combined computational and experimental exploration of the Mo–Bi system, for which no binary intermetallic structures were previously known. Using the ab initio random structure searching (AIRSS) approach, we identified multiple synthetic targets between 0–50 GPa. High-pressure in situ powder X-ray diffraction experiments performed in diamond anvil cells confirmed that Mo–Bi mixtures exhibit rich chemistry upon the application of pressure, including experimental realization of the computationally predicted CuAl2-type MoBi2 structure at 35.8(5) GPa. Electronic structure and phonon dispersion calculations on MoBi2 revealed a correlation between valence electron count and bonding in high-pressure transition metal–Bi structures as well as identified two dynamically stable ambient pressure polymorphs. Our study demonstrates the power of the combined computational–experimental approach in capturing high-pressure reactivity for efficient materials discovery

Coccidioidomycosis Incidence in Arizona Predicted by Seasonal Precipitation

The environmental mechanisms that determine the inter-annual and seasonal variability in incidence of coccidioidomycosis are unclear. In this study, we use Arizona coccidioidomycosis case data for 1995–2006 to generate a timeseries of monthly estimates of exposure rates in Maricopa County, AZ and Pima County, AZ. We reveal a seasonal autocorrelation structure for exposure rates in both Maricopa County and Pima County which indicates that exposure rates are strongly related from the fall to the spring. An abrupt end to this autocorrelation relationship occurs near the the onset of the summer precipitation season and increasing exposure rates related to the subsequent season. The identification of the autocorrelation structure enabled us to construct a “primary” exposure season that spans August-March and a “secondary” season that spans April–June which are then used in subsequent analyses. We show that October–December precipitation is positively associated with rates of exposure for the primary exposure season in both Maricopa County (R = 0.72, p = 0.012) and Pima County (R = 0.69, p = 0.019). In addition, exposure rates during the primary exposure seasons are negatively associated with concurrent precipitation in Maricopa (R = −0.79, p = 0.004) and Pima (R = −0.64, p = 0.019), possibly due to reduced spore dispersion. These associations enabled the generation of models to estimate exposure rates for the primary exposure season. The models explain 69% (p = 0.009) and 54% (p = 0.045) of the variance in the study period for Maricopa and Pima counties, respectively. We did not find any significant predictors for exposure rates during the secondary season. This study builds on previous studies examining the causes of temporal fluctuations in coccidioidomycosis, and corroborates the “grow and blow” hypothesis

Environmental Predictors of Seasonal Influenza Epidemics across Temperate and Tropical Climates

Human influenza infections exhibit a strong seasonal cycle in temperate regions. Recent laboratory and epidemiological evidence suggests that low specific humidity conditions facilitate the airborne survival and transmission of the influenza virus in temperate regions, resulting in annual winter epidemics. However, this relationship is unlikely to account for the epidemiology of influenza in tropical and subtropical regions where epidemics often occur during the rainy season or transmit year-round without a well-defined season. We assessed the role of specific humidity and other local climatic variables on influenza virus seasonality by modeling epidemiological and climatic information from 78 study sites sampled globally. We substantiated that there are two types of environmental conditions associated with seasonal influenza epidemics: “cold-dry” and “humid-rainy”. For sites where monthly average specific humidity or temperature decreases below thresholds of approximately 11–12 g/kg and 18–21°C during the year, influenza activity peaks during the cold-dry season (i.e., winter) when specific humidity and temperature are at minimal levels. For sites where specific humidity and temperature do not decrease below these thresholds, seasonal influenza activity is more likely to peak in months when average precipitation totals are maximal and greater than 150 mm per month. These findings provide a simple climate-based model rooted in empirical data that accounts for the diversity of seasonal influenza patterns observed across temperate, subtropical and tropical climates

Global Influenza Seasonality: Reconciling Patterns across Temperate and Tropical Regions

Bac k g r o u n d: Despite the significant disease burden of the influenza virus in humans, our understanding of the basis for its pronounced seasonality remains incomplete. Past observations that influenza epidemics occur in the winter across temperate climates, combined with insufficient knowledge about the epidemiology of influenza in the tropics, led to the perception that cool and dry conditions were a necessary, and possibly sufficient, driver of influenza epidemics. Recent reports of substantial levels of influenza virus activity and well-defined seasonality in tropical regions, where warm and humid conditions often persist year-round, have rendered previous hypotheses insufficient for explaining global patterns of influenza. Objectiv e: In this review, we examined the scientific evidence for the seasonal mechanisms that potentially explain the complex seasonal patterns of influenza disease activity observed globally. Me t h o d s: In this review we assessed the strength of a range of hypotheses that attempt to explain observations of influenza seasonality across different latitudes and how they relate to each other. We reviewed studies describing population-scale observations, mathematical models, and ecological, laboratory, and clinical experiments pertaining to influenza seasonality. The literature review includes studies that directly mention the topic of influenza seasonality, as well as other topics w

Gendered Discourse in the Political Behavior of Adolescents

The roots of adult civic and political participation originate in pre-adult experiences (Verba et al. 1995) and high school extracurricular activities offer students opportunities to develop interpersonal and leadership skills. In this research, we ask whether adolescents also learn gendered norms of political discourse through extracurricular activities. This project assessed gender differences in participation at the 1999 Model United Nations of the Southwest (MUNSW) at the University of Oklahoma. Important differences in participation were observed in the number and character of speaking turns taken by male and female delegates. We find that contextual factors, such as the sex of the committee chair, the issue areas addressed by the committee, and the timing of the session in the conference significantly influence who participates in the discourse, but the percentage of female participants surprisingly does not. The character of the political discourse suggests norms dominated by masculinity.Yeshttps://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/manuscript-submission-guideline

Characterizing the Epidemiology of the 2009 Influenza A/H1N1 Pandemic in Mexico

Gerardo Chowell and colleagues address whether school closures and other social distancing strategies were successful in reducing pandemic flu transmission in Mexico by analyzing the age- and state-specific incidence of influenza morbidity and mortality in 32 Mexican states

Eculizumab treatment: stochastic occurrence of C3 binding to individual PNH erythrocytes

C5 blockade by eculizumab prevents complement-mediated intravascular hemolysis in paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria (PNH). However, C3-bound PNH red blood cells (RBCs), arising in almost all treated patients, may undergo extravascular hemolysis reducing clinical benefits. Despite the uniform deficiency of CD55 and of CD59, there are always two distinct populations of PNH RBCs, with (C3+) and without (C3-) C3 binding