Impacts of changing climate on the non-indigenous invertebrates in the northern Baltic Sea by end of the twenty-first century

Biological invasions coupled with climate change drive changes in marine biodiversity. Warming climate and changes in hydrology may either enable or hinder the spread of non-indigenous species (NIS) and little is known about how climate change modifies the richness and impacts of NIS in specific sea areas. We calculated from climate change simulations (RCO-SCOBI model) the changes in summer time conditions which northern Baltic Sea may to go through by the end of the twenty-first century, e.g., 2-5 A degrees C sea surface temperature rise and even up to 1.75 unit decrease in salinity. We reviewed the temperature and salinity tolerances (i.e., physiological tolerances and occurrence ranges in the field) of pelagic and benthic NIS established in-or with dispersal potential to-the northern Baltic Sea, and assessed how climate change will likely affect them. Our findings suggest a future decrease in barnacle larvae and an increase in Ponto-Caspian cladocerans in the pelagic community. In benthos, polychaetes, gastropods and decapods may become less abundant. By contrast, dreissenid bivalves, amphipods and mysids are expected to widen their distribution and increase in abundance in the coastal areas of the northern Baltic Sea. Potential salinity decrease acts as a major driver for NIS biogeography in the northern Baltic Sea, but temperature increase and extended summer season allow higher reproduction success in bivalves, zooplankton, amphipods and mysids. Successful NIS, i.e., coastal crustacean and bivalve species, pose a risk to native biota, as many of them have already demonstrated harmful effects in the Baltic Sea

Effect of round goby (Neogobius melanostomus) invasion on blue mussel (Mytilus edulis trossulus) population and winter diet of the long-tailed duck (Clangula hyemalis)

The invasive round goby has established a viable population within 9 years of its first introduction to Lithuanian coastal waters (SE Baltic Sea). During its expansion phase, abundances increased 23-fold, which led to the near complete eradication of its main prey, the blue mussel, at < 20 m depth. The round goby population showed a stabilizing trend after blue mussel biomass was depleted; however, their abundance has not declined. The round goby feeds efficiently on newly settled mollusks, causing a severe constraint for blue mussel recovery. Changes in blue mussel availability and size structure induced a dietary shift in wintering long-tailed duck towards fish prey. An energetically dense food source sustains a good body condition in long-tailed ducks, however the change in trophic position (from 3.1 to 4.3 trophic level) suggests the potential for a reduction in their carrying capacity. Results from this study also show that coastal habitats with low and unpredictable population dynamics of blue mussel become less attractive wintering sites for long-tailed duck in the Baltic Sea. We also document a cascading effect of invasive species in the food web

Microbial parasites make cyanobacteria blooms less of a trophic dead end than commonly assumed

International audienceParasites exist in every ecosystem and can have large influence on food web structure and function, yet, we know little about parasites’ effect on food web dynamics. Here we investigate the role of microbial parasitism (viruses of bacteria, phytoplankton and cyanobacteria, and parasitic chytrids on cyanobacteria) on the dynamics of trophic pathways and food web functioning during a cyanobacteria bloom, using linear inverse food web modeling parameterized with a 2-month long data set (biomasses, infection parameters, etc.). We show the importance of grazing on heterotrophic bacteria (the microbial pathway: DOC → bacteria → consumer) and how consumers depended on bacteria during peak-cyanobacteria bloom, which abundance was partly driven by the viral activity. As bacteria become the main energy pathway to the consumers, the system takes a more web-like structure through increased omnivory, and may thereby facilitate the system’s persistence to the cyanobacteria outbreak. We also showed how the killing of cyanobacteria host cells by chytrids had important impact on the food web dynamics by facilitating grazing on the cyanobacteria, and by offering alternative pathways to the consumers. This seemed to increase the system’s ability to return to a mix of trophic pathways, which theoretically increases the stability of the system