Long-term changes in drought indices in eastern and central Europe

This study analyses long-term changes in drought indices (Standardised Precipitation Index—SPI, Standardised Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index—SPEI) at 1 and 3 months scales at 182 stations in 11 central and eastern European countries during 1949–2018. For comparative purposes, the necessary atmospheric evaporative demand (AED) to obtain SPEI was calculated using two methods, Hargreaves-Samani (SPEIH) and Penman-Monteith (SPEIP). The results show some relevant changes and tendencies in the drought indices. Statistically significant increase in SPI and SPEI during the cold season (November–March), reflecting precipitation increase, was found in the northern part of the study region, in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, northern Belarus and northern Poland. In the rest of study domain, a weak and mostly insignificant decrease prevailed in winter. Summer season (June–August) is characterized by changes in the opposite sign. An increase was observed in the north, while a clear decrease in SPEI, reflecting a drying trend, was typical for the southern regions: the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Moldova and southern Poland. A general drying tendency revealed also in April, which was statistically significant over a wide area in the Czech Republic and Poland. Increasing trends in SPI and SPEI for September and October were detected in Romania, Moldova and Hungary. The use of SPEI instead of SPI generally enhances drying trends

Atmospheric stilling leads to prolonged thermal stratification in a large shallow polymictic lake

To quantify the effects of recent and potential future decreases in surface wind speeds on lake thermal stratification, we apply the one-dimensional process-based model MyLake to a large, shallow, polymictic lake, Võrtsjärv. The model is validated for a 3-year period and run separately for 28 years using long-term daily atmospheric forcing data from a nearby meteorological station. Model simulations show exceptionally good agreement with observed surface and bottom water temperatures during the 3-year period. Similarly, simulated surface water temperatures for 28 years show remarkably good agreement with long-term in situ water temperatures. Sensitivity analysis demonstrates that decreasing wind speeds has resulted in substantial changes in stratification dynamics since 1982, while increasing air temperatures during the same period had a negligible effect. Atmospheric stilling is a phenomenon observed globally, and in addition to recent increases in surface air temperature, needs to be considered when evaluating the influence of climate change on lake ecosystems

Climate change in the Baltic Sea region : a summary

Based on the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports of this thematic issue in Earth System Dynamics and recent peer-reviewed literature, current knowledge of the effects of global warming on past and future changes in climate of the Baltic Sea region is summarised and assessed. The study is an update of the Second Assessment of Climate Change (BACC II) published in 2015 and focuses on the atmosphere, land, cryosphere, ocean, sediments, and the terrestrial and marine biosphere. Based on the summaries of the recent knowledge gained in palaeo-, historical, and future regional climate research, we find that the main conclusions from earlier assessments still remain valid. However, new long-term, homogenous observational records, for example, for Scandinavian glacier inventories, sea-level-driven saltwater inflows, so-called Major Baltic Inflows, and phytoplankton species distribution, and new scenario simulations with improved models, for example, for glaciers, lake ice, and marine food web, have become available. In many cases, uncertainties can now be better estimated than before because more models were included in the ensembles, especially for the Baltic Sea. With the help of coupled models, feedbacks between several components of the Earth system have been studied, and multiple driver studies were performed, e.g. projections of the food web that include fisheries, eutrophication, and climate change. New datasets and projections have led to a revised understanding of changes in some variables such as salinity. Furthermore, it has become evident that natural variability, in particular for the ocean on multidecadal timescales, is greater than previously estimated, challenging our ability to detect observed and projected changes in climate. In this context, the first palaeoclimate simulations regionalised for the Baltic Sea region are instructive. Hence, estimated uncertainties for the projections of many variables increased. In addition to the well-known influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation, it was found that also other low-frequency modes of internal variability, such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, have profound effects on the climate of the Baltic Sea region. Challenges were also identified, such as the systematic discrepancy between future cloudiness trends in global and regional models and the difficulty of confidently attributing large observed changes in marine ecosystems to climate change. Finally, we compare our results with other coastal sea assessments, such as the North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment (NOSCCA), and find that the effects of climate change on the Baltic Sea differ from those on the North Sea, since Baltic Sea oceanography and ecosystems are very different from other coastal seas such as the North Sea. While the North Sea dynamics are dominated by tides, the Baltic Sea is characterised by brackish water, a perennial vertical stratification in the southern subbasins, and a seasonal sea ice cover in the northern subbasins.Peer reviewe

Climate Change in the Baltic Sea Region: A Summary

Based on the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports of this thematic issue in Earth System Dynamics and recent peer-reviewed literature, current knowledge about the effects of global warming on past and future changes in climate of the Baltic Sea region is summarized and assessed. The study is an update of the Second Assessment of Climate Change (BACC II) published in 2015 and focusses on the atmosphere, land, cryosphere, ocean, sediments and the terrestrial and marine biosphere. Based on the summaries of the recent knowledge gained in paleo-, historical and future regional climate research, we find that the main conclusions from earlier assessments remain still valid. However, new long-term, homogenous observational records, e.g. for Scandinavian glacier inventories, sea-level driven saltwater inflows, so-called Major Baltic Inflows, and phytoplankton species distribution and new scenario simulations with improved models, e.g. for glaciers, lake ice and marine food web, have become available. In many cases, uncertainties can now be better estimated than before, because more models can be included in the ensembles, especially for the Baltic Sea. With the help of coupled models, feedbacks between several components of the Earth System have been studied and multiple driver studies were performed, e.g. projections of the food web that include fisheries, eutrophication and climate change. New data sets and projections have led to a revised understanding of changes in some variables such as salinity. Furthermore, it has become evident that natural variability, in particular for the ocean on multidecadal time scales, is greater than previously estimated, challenging our ability to detect observed and projected changes in climate. In this context, the first paleoclimate simulations regionalized for the Baltic Sea region are instructive. Hence, estimated uncertainties for the projections of many variables increased. In addition to the well-known influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation, it was found that also other low-frequency modes of internal variability, such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, have profound effects on the climate of the Baltic Sea region. Challenges were also identified, such as the systematic discrepancy between future cloudiness trends in global and regional models and the difficulty of confidently attributing large observed changes in marine ecosystems to climate change. Finally, we compare our results with other coastal sea assessments, such as the North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment (NOSCCA) and find that the effects of climate change on the Baltic Sea differ from those on the North Sea, since Baltic Sea oceanography and ecosystems are very different from other coastal seas such as the North Sea. While the North Sea dynamics is dominated by tides, the Baltic Sea is characterized by brackish water, a perennial vertical stratification in the southern sub-basins and a seasonal sea ice cover in the northern sub-basins</p

Climate change in the Baltic Sea region: a summary

Based on the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports of this thematic issue in Earth System Dynamics and recent peer-reviewed literature, current knowledge of the effects of global warming on past and future changes in climate of the Baltic Sea region is summarised and assessed. The study is an update of the Second Assessment of Climate Change (BACC II) published in 2015 and focuses on the atmosphere, land, cryosphere, ocean, sediments, and the terrestrial and marine biosphere. Based on the summaries of the recent knowledge gained in palaeo-, historical, and future regional climate research, we find that the main conclusions from earlier assessments still remain valid. However, new long-term, homogenous observational records, for example, for Scandinavian glacier inventories, sea-level-driven saltwater inflows, so-called Major Baltic Inflows, and phytoplankton species distribution, and new scenario simulations with improved models, for example, for glaciers, lake ice, and marine food web, have become available. In many cases, uncertainties can now be better estimated than before because more models were included in the ensembles, especially for the Baltic Sea. With the help of coupled models, feedbacks between several components of the Earth system have been studied, and multiple driver studies were performed, e.g. projections of the food web that include fisheries, eutrophication, and climate change. New datasets and projections have led to a revised understanding of changes in some variables such as salinity. Furthermore, it has become evident that natural variability, in particular for the ocean on multidecadal timescales, is greater than previously estimated, challenging our ability to detect observed and projected changes in climate. In this context, the first palaeoclimate simulations regionalised for the Baltic Sea region are instructive. Hence, estimated uncertainties for the projections of many variables increased. In addition to the well-known influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation, it was found that also other low-frequency modes of internal variability, such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, have profound effects on the climate of the Baltic Sea region. Challenges were also identified, such as the systematic discrepancy between future cloudiness trends in global and regional models and the difficulty of confidently attributing large observed changes in marine ecosystems to climate change. Finally, we compare our results with other coastal sea assessments, such as the North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment (NOSCCA), and find that the effects of climate change on the Baltic Sea differ from those on the North Sea, since Baltic Sea oceanography and ecosystems are very different from other coastal seas such as the North Sea. While the North Sea dynamics are dominated by tides, the Baltic Sea is characterised by brackish water, a perennial vertical stratification in the southern subbasins, and a seasonal sea ice cover in the northern subbasins

Trends in sea ice conditions in the Baltic Sea near the Estonian coast during the period 1949/1950–2003/2004 and their relationships to large-scale atmospheric circulation

In this paper, I study changes in the sea ice regime near the Estonian coast in 1949/1950–2003/2004. The trends in the dates of the first appearance of sea ice and final disappearance of sea ice, as well as in the number of days with sea ice, were analysed and related to the trends in air temperature and atmospheric circulation characteristics. The dependence of sea ice trends on circulation changes was estimated with the conditional Mann-Kendall test. The results revealed no similar trends in sea ice parameters in different areas of Estonia. I found a significant shift towards a later date in the first appearance of sea ice on the western Estonian coast of the inland sea, but not on the coasts of the Gulf of Finland and the Baltic Proper. This trend could not be explained by the trends in the circulation parameters. The date of the final disappearance of sea ice has shifted earlier by more than a month. The largest change has occurred at the westernmost stations and the smallest change was typical for the Gulf of Finland. This variable had a close correlation with the intensity of westerlies during the whole winter. The correlation coefficient between the date of the final disappearance of sea ice, NAO and AO indices and the frequency of the zonal circulation type W during the winter season (December–March) lay between –0.56 and –0.73. Concerning single months, the circulation in February plays a key role. The number of days with sea ice, as the main characteristic of the iciness, has decreased significantly in all the stations, except in Kunda and Narva-Jõesuu located on the southern coast of the Gulf of Finland. The most substantial decrease was observed at the westernmost stations located on the open coast of the Baltic Proper. This change was also induced by an increase in the intensity of winter westerlies

Long-term storminess and sea level variations on the Estonian coast of the Baltic Sea in relation to large-scale atmospheric circulation

Variations and trends in storminess (number of storm days), and mean and maximum sea levels were analysed along the Estonian coast during the last century. An increase in storminess was detected at the Vilsandi and Sõrve stations, although inhomogeneities in the wind data make the trends less reliable. Mean sea level trends depend on the post-glacial isostatic land uplift, which is different in different parts of Estonia. After eliminating the influence of the uplift, the estimated sea level rise was 2.2–3.2&#160;mm&#160;yr–1 during 1950–2011, which was higher than the global mean (1.9&#160;mm&#160;yr–1). The majority of increases in storminess and sea level have been observed during the cold half-year (November–March). An increase in annual maximum sea level has been much higher than in mean values, which indicates a strong increase in the flooding risk. Atmospheric circulation is closely related to the frequencies of storms and high sea level events, especially during the cold season. Variables describing the intensity of zonal circulation (westerlies), such as the Arctic oscillation and North Atlantic oscillation indices, and the frequency of the circulation form W according to the Vangengeim–Girs classification are highly correlated with storminess and sea level on the Estonian coast during 1950–2011. Negative correlations appeared in case of the circulation form E and the SCAND index

Changes in surface wind directions in Estonia during 1966–2008 and their relationships with large-scale atmospheric circulation

Changes in the percentages of eight main surface wind directions at 14 meteorological stations in Estonia, Northeast Europe, were studied during 1966–2008. Long-term changes in wind directions are related to variations in the large-scale atmospheric circulation but partly also to changes in the surroundings of the stations and in wind obstacles. Significant alterations in wind directions were determined, and found to be the strongest in the winter season. The percentages of W and SW winds have clear positive trends, while SE, E and NE winds are characterized by negative tendencies in winter. In conclusion, wind directions have probably been shifted from east to west. Differences in trends between the stations are explained by changes in wind obstacles around the stations. The trends in wind roses in Estonia were caused by the intensification of the westerly circulation over the Atlantic/European sector during the winter season