Too Much to Lose, or More to Gain? Should Sweden Join the Euro?

This paper considers the costs and benefits of Sweden joining the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). We pay particular attention to the costs of abandoning the krona in terms of a loss of monetary policy independence. For this purpose, we apply a cointegrated VAR framework to examine the degree of monetary independence that the Sveriges Riksbank enjoys. Our results suggest that Sweden has in fact relatively little to lose from joining EMU, at least in terms of monetary independence. We complement our analysis by looking into other criteria affecting the cost-benefit calculus of monetary integration, which, by and large, support our positive assessment of Swedish EMU membership

Chinese Monetary Policy and the Dollar Peg

This paper investigates to what extent Chinese monetary policy is constrained by the dollar peg. To this end, we use a cointegration framework to examine whether Chinese interest rates are driven by the Fed's policy. In a second step, we estimate a monetary model for China, in which we include also other monetary policy tools besides the central bank interest rate, namely reserve requirement ratios and open market operations. Our results suggest China has been relatively successful in isolating its monetary policy from the US policy and that the interest rate tool has not been effectively made use of. We therefore conclude that by employing capital controls and relying on other instruments than the interest rate China has been able to exert relatively autonomous monetary policy

Simulating properties of the likelihood ratio test for a unit root in an explosive second order autoregression

This paper provides a means of accurately simulating explosive autoregressive processes, and uses this method to analyse the distribution of the likelihood ratio test statistic for an explosive second order autoregressive process. Nielsen (2001) has shown that for the asymptotic distribution of the likelihood ratio unit root test statistic in a higher order autoregressive model, the assumption that the remaining roots are stationary is unnecessary, and as such the approximating asymptotic distribution for the test in the difference stationary region is valid in the explosive region also. However, simulations of statistics in the explosive region are beset by the magnitude of the numbers involved, which cause numerical inaccuracies, and this has previously constituted a bar on supporting asymptotic results by means of simulation, and analysing the finite sample properties of tests in the explosive region.

Mr. J. Reade to Mr. James Meredith (1 October 1962)

https://egrove.olemiss.edu/mercorr_pro/1364/thumbnail.jp

Does interindividual variation in energetic demand influence food sharing in the honeybee?

2017 Spring.Includes bibliographical references.A central benefit of group living is the cooperative acquisition and sharing of resources but the costs associated with these processes set up a potential conflict between individual and group level fitness. This means that all individuals do not get an equal share of the benefits or pay an equal share of the costs, which also results in an overall decrease in the average fitness of all group members. In contrast to group living animals in which behavior is driven by considerations of individual fitness, in eusocial groups such as the honeybee colony, it is generally considered that all group members contribute equally toward group efforts with selection primarily acting at the colony level. However, one can hypothesize that if individuals differ in their intrinsic energetic requirements, this difference in the cost of self-maintenance would lead to differences in the amount of resources they can contribute to the colony pool. Using the honeybee colony as a model, I investigated this idea regarding whether differences in individual energetic requirements among eusocial group members influence the amount of food that an individual shares with the group. First I investigated whether there was interindividual variation in carbohydrate demand among foragers using a capillary feeder assay. Next I asked whether the carbohydrate demands of individual foragers were a function of their metabolic rates. Then I used a series of sharing experiments in the field and in the lab to determine whether food sharing by an individual forager was influenced by her own energetic demand. The results of my research show that even though there is substantial variation in energetic demand among the members of a honeybee colony, it does not influence the amount of food an individual shares with the colony. This suggests that either honeybee colony members indeed work in a truly "altruistic" fashion or that there are other possible implications of such differences

Experiments of light and shadow made by means of the prism

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Measurement of competitive balance in professional team sports using the Normalized Concentration Ratio

Competitive balance is an important concept in professional team sports; its measurement is, therefore, a critical issue. One of the most widely used indices, which was introduced for the estimation of seasonal competitive balance is the Concentration Ratio, which is a relatively simple index and measures the extent to which a league is dominated by a particular number of teams. However, it is shown that both the total number of league teams and the number of dominant teams under examination affects the index's boundaries, which results in a misleading interpretation concerning the level of competitive balance. Thus, we introduce the Normalized Concentration Ratio for the study of competitive balance across leagues or seasons.competitive balance, concentration ratio, professional sports, sport league

The pursuit of a high central venous oxygen saturation in sepsis: growing concerns

In this issue of Critical Care, Dutch investigators report that, in a cohort of patients with sepsis/septic shock admitted to three different intensive care units (ICUs), low central venous oxygen saturation (ScvO2) was uncommon at the time of ICU admission, and hospital mortality was <30%. Their findings, taken together with those of recent reports from Australia and New Zealand (ANZ), raise serious concerns about the utility of early goal directed therapy (EGDT) outside the context of the original trial. Despite inclusion of EGDT into the Surviving Sepsis Guidelines, in response to growing uncertainty, ANZ and US investigators will soon begin randomization of patients into two large multicentre trials comparing EGDT to standard therapy. Until such studies are completed, basing international treatment guidelines on a single centre study performed in what may turn out to be a highly atypical environment would seem premature

Whatever it takes: rivalry and unethical behavior

This research investigates the link between rivalry and unethical behavior. We propose that people will engage in greater unethical behavior when competing against their rivals than when competing against non-rival competitors. Across a series of experiments and an archival study, we find that rivalry is associated with increased use of deception, unsportsmanlike behavior, willingness to employ unethical negotiation tactics, and misreporting of performance. We also explore the psychological underpinnings of rivalry, which help to illuminate how it differs from general competition, and why it increases unethical behavior. Rivalry as compared to non-rival competition was associated with increased status concerns, contingency of self-worth, and performance goals; mediation analyses revealed that performance goals played the biggest role in explaining why rivalry promoted greater unethicality. Lastly, we find that merely thinking about a rival can be enough to promote greater unethical behavior, even in domains unrelated to the rivalry. These findings highlight the importance of rivalry as a widespread, powerful, yet largely unstudied phenomenon with significant organizational implications. Further, the results help to inform when and why unethical behavior occurs within organizations, and demonstrate that the effects of competition are dependent upon relationships and prior interactions

Forecasting with social media: evidence from Tweets on soccer matches

Social media is now used as a forecasting tool by a variety of firms and agencies. But how useful are such data in forecasting outcomes? Can social media add any in- formation to that produced by a prediction/betting market? We source 13.8m posts from Twitter, and combine them with contemporaneous Betfair betting prices, to fore- cast the outcomes of English Premier League soccer matches as they unfold. Using a micro-blogging dictionary to analyse the content of Tweets, we find that the aggregate tone of Tweets contains significant information not in betting prices, particularly in the immediate aftermath of goals and red cards