Models of presence-absence estimate abundance as well as (or even better than) models of abundance: the case of the butterfly Parnassius apollo

Models relating species distribution records to environmental variables are increasingly applied to biodiversity conservation. Such techniques could be valuable to predict the distribution, abundance or habitat requirements of species that are rare or otherwise difficult to survey. However, despite widely-documented positive intraspecific relationships between occupancy and abundance, few studies have demonstrated convincing associations between models of habitat suitability based on species occurrence, and observed measures of habitat quality such as abundance. Here we compared models based on field-derived abundance and distribution (presence-absence) data for a rare mountain butterfly in 2006-08. Both model types selected consistent effects of environmental variables, which corresponded to known ecological associations of the species, suggesting that abundance and distribution may be a function of similar factors. However, the models based on occurrence data identified stronger effects of a smaller number of environmental variables, indicating less uncertainty in the factors controlling distribution. Furthermore, cross-validation of the models using observed abundance data from different years, or averaged across years, suggested a marginally stronger ability of models based on occurrence data to predict observed abundance. The results suggest that, for some species, distribution models could be efficient tools for estimating habitat quality in conservation planning or management, when information on abundance or habitat requirements is costly or impractical to obtain.Keywords: Apollo butterfly, Conservation planning, Distribution, Iberian Peninsula, GLM, Mountains, Lepidoptera, Information-theoretic approac

A Broad Assessment of Factors Determining Culicoides imicola Abundance: Modelling the Present and Forecasting Its Future in Climate Change Scenarios

Bluetongue (BT) is still present in Europe and the introduction of new serotypes from endemic areas in the African continent is a possible threat. Culicoides imicola remains one of the most relevant BT vectors in Spain and research on the environmental determinants driving its life cycle is key to preventing and controlling BT. Our aim was to improve our understanding of the biotic and abiotic determinants of C. imicola by modelling its present abundance, studying the spatial pattern of predicted abundance in relation to BT outbreaks, and investigating how the predicted current distribution and abundance patterns might change under future (2011–2040) scenarios of climate change according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. C. imicola abundance data from the bluetongue national surveillance programme were modelled with spatial, topoclimatic, host and soil factors. The influence of these factors was further assessed by variation partitioning procedures. The predicted abundance of C. imicola was also projected to a future period. Variation partitioning demonstrated that the pure effect of host and topoclimate factors explained a high percentage (>80%) of the variation. The pure effect of soil followed in importance in explaining the abundance of C. imicola. A close link was confirmed between C. imicola abundance and BT outbreaks. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first to consider wild and domestic hosts in predictive modelling for an arthropod vector. The main findings regarding the near future show that there is no evidence to suggest that there will be an important increase in the distribution range of C. imicola; this contrasts with an expected increase in abundance in the areas where it is already present in mainland Spain. What may be expected regarding the future scenario for orbiviruses in mainland Spain, is that higher predicted C. imicola abundance may significantly change the rate of transmission of orbiviruses

Viruses and Mycoplasma pneumoniae are the main etiological agents of community-acquired pneumonia in hospitalized pediatric patients in Spain

[Objectives]: To describe the etiology of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) in hospitalized children in Spain and analyze the predictors of the etiology.[Hypothesis]: The different etiological groups of pediatric CAP are associated with different clinical, radiographic, and analytical data.[Design]: Observational, multicenter, and prospective study.[Patient selection]: This study included children aged 1 month to 17 years with CAP, who were hospitalized between April 2012 and May 2019.[Methods]: An extensive microbiological workup was performed. The clinical, radiographic, and analytical parameters were analyzed for three etiological groups.[Results]: Among the 495 children included, at least one causative pathogen was identified in 262 (52.9%): pathogenic viruses in 155/262 (59.2%); atypical bacteria (AB), mainly Mycoplasma pneumonia, in 84/262 (32.1%); and typical bacteria (TyB) in 40/262 (15.3%). Consolidation was observed in 89/138 (64.5%) patients with viral CAP, 74/84 (88.1%) with CAP caused by AB, and 40/40 (100%) with CAP caused by TyB. Para-pneumonic pleural effusion (PPE) was observed in 112/495 (22.6%) patients, of which 61/112 (54.5%) presented a likely causative pathogen: viruses in 12/61 (19.7%); AB in 23/61 (37.7%); and TyB in 26/61 (42.6%). Viral etiology was significantly frequent in young patients and in those with low oxygen saturation, wheezing, no consolidation, and high lymphocyte counts. CAP patients with AB as the etiological agent had a significantly longer and less serious course as compared to those with other causative pathogens.[Conclusions]: Viruses and M. pneumoniae are the main causes of pediatric CAP in Spain. Wheezing, young age, and no consolidation on radiographs are indicative of viral etiology. Viruses and AB can also cause PPE. Since only a few cases can be directly attributed to TyB, the indications for antibiotics must be carefully considered in each patient.Instituto de Investigación Hospital 12 de Octubre (i+12), Grant/Award Number: AY191212‐1; Instituto de Salud Carlos III (Ministry of Economy, Industry and Competitiveness) and co‐funded by the European Regional Development Funds, Grant/Award Number: Project PI17/01458; Instituto Ramón y Cajal de Investigación Sanitaria (IRYCIS), Grant/Award Number: PCAPE 2011_0025 Register 320/11; Research Project of Universidad Europea de Madrid, Grant/Award Number: 2017/UEM03Peer reviewe

Linking inter-annual variation in environment, phenology, and abundance for a montane butterfly community (dataset)

These data underlie the analyses presented in the article "Linking inter-annual variation in environment, phenology, and abundance for a montane butterfly community." by James E. Stewart, Javier Gutiérrez Illán, Shane A. Richards, David Gutiérrez and Robert J. Wilson, published in Ecology (2019); DOI:10.1002/ecy.2906. R code for running the models are available at the publisher website; the R code uses the data in the form presented here. The file "SiteData.csv" details the elevation of each site above sea level in kilometres. Each site is numbered 1:20, and associated with a unique transect name. The 10 other .csv files ("[species]_counts.csv") contain the count data, collected as per our Methods section, for each of 10 species. The first three columns indicate the Transect name, Site number and Year to which each of the subsequent columns refer. For each Site-Year combination, Columns 4:16 (DoY1:DoY13) indicate the Day of the Year on which the count data (N1:N13, Columns 16:29) were collected. Please contact the corresponding author if you encounter any problems with these data or the associated R code.The article associated with this dataset is located in ORE at: http://hdl.handle.net/10871/40480This is the dataset used for the Stewart et al. (2019) article "Linking inter-annual variation in environment, phenology, and abundance for a montane butterfly community" published in Ecology.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)Spanish Ministry of Economy and CompetitivenessSpanish Ministry of Economy and CompetitivenessSpanish Ministry of Economy and CompetitivenessSpanish Ministry of Economy and Competitivenes

Evaluating invasion risk and population dynamics of the brown marmorated stink bug across the contiguous United States

BackgroundInvasive species threaten the productivity and stability of natural and managed ecosystems. Predicting the spread of invaders, which can aid in early mitigation efforts, is a major challenge, especially in the face of climate change. While ecological niche models are effective tools to assess habitat suitability for invaders, such models have rarely been created for invasive pest species with rapidly expanding ranges. Here, we leveraged a national monitoring effort from 543 sites over 3 years to assess factors mediating the occurrence and abundance of brown marmorated stink bug (BMSB, Halyomorpha halys), an invasive insect pest that has readily established throughout much of the United States.ResultsWe used maximum entropy models to estimate the suitable habitat of BMSB under several climate scenarios, and generalized boosted models to assess environmental factors that regulated BMSB abundance. Our models captured BMSB distribution and abundance with high accuracy, and predicted a 70% increase in suitable habitat under future climate scenarios. However, environmental factors that mediated the geographical distribution of BMSB were different from those driving abundance. While BMSB occurrence was most affected by winter precipitation and proximity to populated areas, BMSB abundance was influenced most strongly by evapotranspiration and solar photoperiod.ConclusionOur results suggest that linking models of establishment (occurrence) and population dynamics (abundance) offers a more effective way to forecast the spread and impact of BMSB and other invasive species than simply occurrence-based models, allowing for targeted mitigation efforts. Implications of distribution shifts under climate change are discussed. © 2022 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry