Real-time prediction of rain-triggered lahars: incorporating seasonality and catchment recovery

Rain-triggered lahars are a significant secondary hydrological and geomorphic hazard at volcanoes where unconsolidated pyroclastic material produced by explosive eruptions is exposed to intense rainfall, often occurring for years to decades after the initial eruptive activity. Previous studies have shown that secondary lahar initiation is a function of rainfall parameters, source material characteristics and time since eruptive activity. In this study, probabilistic rain-triggered lahar forecasting models are developed using the lahar occurrence and rainfall record of the Belham River valley at the Soufrière Hills volcano (SHV), Montserrat, collected between April 2010 and April 2012. In addition to the use of peak rainfall intensity (PRI) as a base forecasting parameter, considerations for the effects of rainfall seasonality and catchment evolution upon the initiation of rain-triggered lahars and the predictability of lahar generation are also incorporated into these models. Lahar probability increases with peak 1 h rainfall intensity throughout the 2-year dataset and is higher under given rainfall conditions in year 1 than year 2. The probability of lahars is also enhanced during the wet season, when large-scale synoptic weather systems (including tropical cyclones) are more common and antecedent rainfall and thus levels of deposit saturation are typically increased. The incorporation of antecedent conditions and catchment evolution into logistic-regression-based rain-triggered lahar probability estimation models is shown to enhance model performance and displays the potential for successful real-time prediction of lahars, even in areas featuring strongly seasonal climates and temporal catchment recovery

Interpreting flash flood palaeoflow parameters from antidunes and gravel lenses: An example from Montserrat, West Indies

The wavelength of stationary water–surface waves and their associated antidune bedforms are related to the mean velocity and depth of formative flow. In sand-bed flume experiments, Alexander et al. (2001) found that lens structures were preserved during antidune growth and change, and the dimension of the lenses were empirically related to antidune wavelength, and thus could be used to estimate flow velocity and depth. This study is the first to compare observations of formative flow conditions and resulting sedimentary structures in a natural setting, testing the Alexander et al. (2001) relationship at a field-scale. Trains of stationary and upstream migrating water–surface waves were prevalent during the flash flood in October 2012 in the Belham Valley, Montserrat, West Indies. Wave positions and wavelengths were assessed at 900 s intervals through the daylight hours of the event within a monitored reach. The wave data indicate flow depths up to 1.3 m and velocity up to 3.6 m s−1. Sedimentary structures formed by antidune growth and change were preserved in the event deposit. These structures include lenses of clast-supported gravel and massive sand, with varying internal architecture. The lenses and associated low angle strata are comparable to sand-bed structures formed from stationary and upstream migrating waves in flume experiments, confirming the diagnostic value of these structures. Using mean lens length in the event deposit underestimated peak flow conditions during the flood, and implied that the lenses were preserved during waning flow

Atmospheric predictability revisited

This article examines the potential to improve numerical weather prediction (NWP) by estimating upper and lower bounds on predictability by re-visiting the original study of Lorenz (1982) but applied to the most recent version of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) forecast system, for both the deterministic and ensemble prediction systems (EPS). These bounds are contrasted with an older version of the same NWP system to see how they have changed with improvements to the NWP system. The computations were performed for the earlier seasons of DJF 1985/1986 and JJA 1986 and the later seasons of DJF 2010/2011 and JJA 2011 using the 500-hPa geopotential height field. Results indicate that for this field, we may be approaching the limit of deterministic forecasting so that further improvements might only be obtained by improving the initial state. The results also show that predictability calculations with earlier versions of the model may overestimate potential forecast skill, which may be due to insufficient internal variability in the model and because recent versions of the model are more realistic in representing the true atmospheric evolution. The same methodology is applied to the EPS to calculate upper and lower bounds of predictability of the ensemble mean forecast in order to explore how ensemble forecasting could extend the limits of the deterministic forecast. The results show that there is a large potential to improve the ensemble predictions, but for the increased predictability of the ensemble mean, there will be a trade-off in information as the forecasts will become increasingly smoothed with time. From around the 10-d forecast time, the ensemble mean begins to converge towards climatology. Until this point, the ensemble mean is able to predict the main features of the large-scale flow accurately and with high consistency from one forecast cycle to the next. By the 15-d forecast time, the ensemble mean has lost information with the anomaly of the flow strongly smoothed out. In contrast, the control forecast is much less consistent from run to run, but provides more detailed (unsmoothed) but less useful information

A flexible, quantitative plasmonic-fluor lateral flow assay for the rapid detection of Orthoebolavirus zairense and Orthoebolavirus sudanense

Filoviruses comprise a family of single-stranded, negative-sense RNA viruses with a significant impact on human health. Given the risk for disease outbreaks, as highlighted by the recent outbreaks across Africa, there is an unmet need for flexible diagnostic technologies that can be deployed in resource-limited settings. Herein, we highlight the use of plasmonic-fluor lateral flow assays (PF-LFA) for the rapid, quantitative detection of an Ebolavirus-secreted glycoprotein, a marker for infection. Plasmonic fluors are a class of ultrabright reporter molecules that combine engineered nanorods with conventional fluorophores, resulting in improved analytical sensitivity. We have developed a PF-LFA fo

Stokes drift

During its periodic motion, a particle floating at the free surface of a water wave experiences a net drift velocity in the direction of wave propagation, known as the Stokes drift (Stokes 1847 Trans. Camb. Philos. Soc.8, 441-455). More generally, the Stokes drift velocity is the difference between the average Lagrangian flow velocity of a fluid parcel and the average Eulerian flow velocity of the fluid. This paper reviews progress in fundamental and applied research on the induced mean flow associated with surface gravity waves since the first description of the Stokes drift, now 170 years ago. After briefly reviewing the fundamental physical processes, most of which have been established for decades, the review addresses progress in laboratory and field observations of the Stokes drift. Despite more than a century of experimental studies, laboratory studies of the mean circulation set up by waves in a laboratory flume remain somewhat contentious. In the field, rapid advances are expected due to increasingly small and cheap sensors and transmitters, making widespread use of small surface-following drifters possible. We also discuss remote sensing of the Stokes drift from high-frequency radar. Finally, the paper discusses the three main areas of application of the Stokes drift: in the coastal zone, in Eulerian models of the upper ocean layer and in the modelling of tracer transport, such as oil and plastic pollution. Future climate models will probably involve full coupling of ocean and atmosphere systems, in which the wave model provides consistent forcing on the ocean surface boundary layer. Together with the advent of new space-borne instruments that can measure surface Stokes drift, such models hold the promise of quantifying the impact of wave effects on the global atmosphere-ocean system and hopefully contribute to improved climate projections.This article is part of the theme issue 'Nonlinear water waves'

Human-Like Neutralizing Antibodies Protect Mice from Aerosol Exposure with Western Equine Encephalitis Virus

Western equine encephalitis virus (WEEV) causes symptoms in humans ranging from mild febrile illness to life-threatening encephalitis, and no human medical countermeasures are licensed. A previous study demonstrated that immune serum from vaccinated mice protected against lethal WEEV infection, suggesting the utility of antibodies for pre- and post-exposure treatment. Here, three neutralizing and one binding human-like monoclonal antibodies were evaluated against WEEV aerosol challenge. Dose-dependent protection was observed with two antibodies administered individually, ToR69-3A2 and ToR68-2C3. In vitro neutralization was not a critical factor for protection in this murine model, as ToR69-3A2 is a strong neutralizing antibody, and ToR68-2C3 is a non-neutralizing antibody. This result highlights the importance of both neutralizing and non-neutralizing antibodies in the protection of mice from WEEV lethality

Detection of biomarkers for filoviral infection with a silicon photonic resonator platform

This protocol describes the use of silicon photonic microring resonator sensors for detection of Ebola virus (EBOV) and Sudan virus (SUDV) soluble glycoprotein (sGP). This protocol encompasses biosensor functionalization of silicon microring resonator chips, detection of protein biomarkers in sera, preparing calibration standards for analytical validation, and quantification of the results from these experiments. This protocol is readily adaptable toward other analytes, including cytokines, chemokines, nucleic acids, and viruses. For complete details on the use and execution of this protocol, please refer to Qavi et al. (2022)

Increased reports of severe myocarditis associated with enterovirus infection in neonates, United Kingdom, 27 June 2022 to 26 April 2023

Enteroviruses are a common cause of seasonal childhood infections. The vast majority of enterovirus infections are mild and self-limiting, although neonates can sometimes develop severe disease. Myocarditis is a rare complication of enterovirus infection. Between June 2022 and April 2023, twenty cases of severe neonatal enteroviral myocarditis caused by coxsackie B viruses were reported in the United Kingdom. Sixteen required critical care support and two died. Enterovirus PCR on whole blood was the most sensitive diagnostic test. We describe the initial public health investigation into this cluster and aim to raise awareness among paediatricians, laboratories and public health specialists

Nature of the Earth's earliest crust from hafnium isotopes in single detrital zircons

Continental crust forms from, and thus chemically depletes, the Earth's mantle. Evidence that the Earth's mantle was already chemically depleted by melting before the formation of today's oldest surviving crust has been presented in the form of Sm-Nd isotope studies of 3.8-4.0 billion years old rocks from Greenland(1-5) and Canada(5-7). But this interpretation has been questioned because of the possibility that subsequent perturbations may have re-equilibrated the neodymium-isotope compositions of these rocks(8). Independent and more robust evidence for the origin of the earliest crust and depletion of the Archaean mantle can potentially be provided by hafnium-isotope compositions of zircon, a mineral whose age can be precisely determined by U-Pb dating, and which can survive metamorphisms(4). But the amounts of hafnium in single zircon grains are too small for the isotopic composition to be precisely analysed by conventional methods. Here we report hafnium-isotope data, obtained using the new technique of multiple-collector plasma-source mass spectrometry(9), for 37 individual grains of the oldest known terrestrial zircons (from the Narryer Gneiss Complex, Australia, with U-Pb ages of up to 4.14 Gyr (refs 10-13)). We find that none of the grains has a depleted mantle signature, but that many were derived from a source with a hafnium-isotope composition similar to that of chondritic meteorites. Furthermore, more than half of the analysed grains seem to have formed by remelting of significantly older crust, indicating that crustal preservation and subsequent reworking might have been important processes from earliest times.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/62681/1/399252a0.pd