Bivariate stochastic modeling of functional response with natural mortality

A correction due to Abbott (1925) is the standard method of dealing with control mortality in insect bioassay to estimate the mortality of an insect conditional on control mortality not having occurred. In this article a bivariate stochastic process for overall mortality is developed in which natural mortality and predation are jointly modeled to take account of the competing-risks associated with prey loss. The total mortality estimate from this model is essentially identical with that from more classical modeling. However, when predation loss is estimated in the absence of control mortality the results are somewhat different, with the estimate from the bivariate model being lower than that from using Abbott’s formula in conjunction with the classical model. It is argued that overdispersion in observed mortality data corresponds to correlated outcomes (death or survival) for the prey initially present, while Abbott’s correction relies implicitly on independence

Influence of MWCNT/surfactant dispersions on the mechanical properties of Portland cement pastes

This work studies the reinforcing effect of Multi Walled Carbon Nanotubes (MWCNT) on cement pastes. A 0.35% solid concentration of MWCNT in powder was dispersed in deionized water with sodium dodecyl sulfate (cationic surfactant), cetylpyridinium chloride (anionic surfactant) and triton X-100 (amphoteric surfactant) using an ultrasonic tip processor. Three concentrations of each surfactant (1mM, 10mM and 100mM) were tested, and all samples were sonicated until an adequate dispersion degree was obtained. Cement pastes with additions of carbon nanotubes of 0.15% by mass of cement were produced in two steps; first the dispersions of MWCNT were combined with the mixing water using an ultrasonic tip processor to guarantee homogeneity, and then cement was added and mixed until a homogeneous paste was obtained. Direct tensile strength, apparent density and open porosity of the pastes were measured after 7 days of curing. It was found that the MWCNT/surfactants dispersions decrease the mechanical properties of the cement based matrix due to an increased porosity caused by the presence of surfactants. © Published under licence by IOP Publishing Ltd

Cladding mode coupling in highly localized fiber Bragg gratings: modal properties and transmission spectra

The spectral characteristics of a fiber Bragg grating (FBG) with a transversely inhomogeneous refractive index profile, differs con- siderably from that of a transversely uniform one. Transmission spectra of inhomogeneous and asymmetric FBGs that have been inscribed with focused ultrashort pulses with the so-called point-by-point technique are investigated. The cladding mode resonances of such FBGs can span a full octave in the spectrum and are very pronounced (deeper than 20dB). Using a coupled-mode approach, we compute the strength of resonant coupling and find that coupling into cladding modes of higher azimuthal order is very sensitive to the position of the modification in the core. Exploiting these properties allows precise control of such reflections and may lead to many new sensing applications.Comment: Submission to OE, 16 pages, 6 figure

Probing the Space of Toric Quiver Theories

We demonstrate a practical and efficient method for generating toric Calabi-Yau quiver theories, applicable to both D3 and M2 brane world-volume physics. A new analytic method is presented at low order parametres and an algorithm for the general case is developed which has polynomial complexity in the number of edges in the quiver. Using this algorithm, carefully implemented, we classify the quiver diagram and assign possible superpotentials for various small values of the number of edges and nodes. We examine some preliminary statistics on this space of toric quiver theories

M2-Branes and Fano 3-folds

A class of supersymmetric gauge theories arising from M2-branes probing Calabi-Yau 4-folds which are cones over smooth toric Fano 3-folds is investigated. For each model, the toric data of the mesonic moduli space is derived using the forward algorithm. The generators of the mesonic moduli space are determined using Hilbert series. The spectrum of scaling dimensions for chiral operators is computed.Comment: 128 pages, 39 figures, 42 table

Patient perspectives of managing fatigue in ankylosing spondylitis, and views on potential interventions: a qualitative study

<p>Background: Fatigue is a major component of living with ankylosing spondylitis (AS), though it has been largely over-looked, and currently there are no specific agreed management strategies.</p> <p>Methods: This qualitative exploratory study involved participants who are members of an existing population-based ankylosing spondylitis (PAS) cohort. Participants residing in South West Wales were invited to participate in a focus group to discuss; (1) effects of fatigue, (2) self-management strategies and (3) potential future interventions. The focus groups were audio-recorded and the transcripts were analysed using thematic analysis.</p> <p>Results: Participants consisted of 3 males/4 females (group 1) and 4 males/3 females (group 2), aged between 35 and 73 years (mean age 53 years). Three main themes were identified: (1) The effects of fatigue were multi-dimensional with participants expressing feelings of being ‘drained’ (physical), ‘upset’ (emotional) and experiencing ‘low-mood’ (psychological); (2) The most commonly reported self-management strategy for fatigue was a balanced combination of activity (exercise) and rest. Medication was reluctantly taken due to side-effects and worries over dependency; (3) Participants expressed a preference for psychological therapies rather than pharmacological for managing fatigue. Information on Mindfulness-Based Stress Reduction (MBSR) was received with interest, with recommendations for delivery in a group format with the option of distance-based delivery for people who were not able to attend a group course.</p> <p>Conclusions: Patients frequently try and manage their fatigue without any formal guidance or support. Our research indicates there is a need for future research to focus on psychological interventions to address the multi-faceted aspects of fatigue in AS.</p&gt

The Statistics of Vacuum Geometry

We investigate the vacuum moduli space of supersymmetric gauge theories en masse by probing the space of such vacua from a statistical standpoint. Using quiver gauge theories with N = 1 supersymmetry as a testing ground, we sample over a large number of vacua as algebraic varieties, computing explicitly their dimension, degree and Hilbert series. We study the distribution of these geometrical quantities, and also address the question of how likely it is for the moduli space to be Calabi-Yau

Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a patient-initiated botulinum toxin treatment model for blepharospasm and hemifacial spasm: a study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

Background Blepharospasm and hemifacial spasm are debilitating conditions that significantly impact on patient quality of life. Cyclical treatment with botulinum toxin injections offers temporary relief, but the duration of treatment efficacy is variable. The standard model of patient care defines routine fixed-time based scheduled treatment cycles which may lead to unnecessarily frequent treatment for some patients and experience of distressing symptoms in others, if symptoms return before the scheduled follow-up period. Methods/Design A randomised controlled trial will compare a patient-initiated model of care, where patients determine botulinum toxin treatment timing, to the standard model of care in which care is scheduled by the clinical team. A sample of 266 patients with blepharospasm or hemifacial spasm will be recruited from Moorfields Eye Hospital (MEH), London. The trial will be accompanied by a mixed methods evaluation of acceptability of the new service. Patients who meet eligibility criteria will be assessed at baseline and those in the intervention group will be provided instructions on how to book their own treatment appointments. Patients in both groups will be followed up 3 and 9 months into the trial and all patients will be returned to usual care after 9 months to meet safety protocols. Primary outcome measures include disease severity (questionnaire), functional disability (questionnaire) and patient satisfaction with care (questionnaire). Secondary outcomes include disease-specific quality of life (questionnaire), mood (questionnaire), illness and treatment perceptions (questionnaire and semi-structured interviews), economic impact (questionnaire) and acceptability (questionnaire and semi-structured interviews). Discussion This trial will assess the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a patient-led care model for botulinum toxin therapy. If the new model is shown to be effective in reducing distress and disability in these populations and is found to be acceptable to patients, whilst being cost-effective, this will have significant implications for service organisation across the NHS. Trial registration UK Clinical Research Network (UKCRN) Portfolio 18660. Clinicaltrials.gov ID NCT102577224 (registered 29th October 2015

On the Tail of the Scottish Vowel Length Rule in Glasgow

One of the most famous sound features of Scottish English is the short/long timing alternation of /i u ai/vowels, which depends on the morpho-phonemic environment, and is known of as the Scottish Vowel Length Rule (SVLR). These alternations make the status of vowel quantity in Scottish English (quasi-)phonemic but are also susceptible to change, particularly in situations of intense sustained dialect contact with Anglo-English. Does the SVLR change in Glasgow where dialect contact at the community level is comparably low? The present study sets out to tackle this question, and tests two hypotheses involving (1) external influences due to dialect-contact and (2) internal, prosodically-induced factors of sound change. Durational analyses of /i u a/ were conducted on a corpus of spontaneous Glaswegian speech from the 1970s and 2000s, and four speaker groups were compared, two of middle-aged men, and two of adolescent boys. Our hypothesis that the development of the SVLR over time may be internally constrained and interact with prosody was largely confirmed. We observed weakening effects in its implementation which were localised in phrase-medial unaccented positions in all speaker groups, and in phrase-final positions in the speakers born after the Second World War. But unlike some other varieties of Scottish or Northern English which show weakening of the Rule under a prolonged contact with Anglo-English, dialect contact seems to be having less impact on the durational patterns in Glaswegian vernacular, probably because of the overall reduced potential for a regular, everyday contact in the West given the different demographies

Community-Centered Responses to Ebola in Urban Liberia: The View from Below

The West African Ebola epidemic has demonstrated that the existing range of medical and epidemiological responses to emerging disease outbreaks is insufficient, especially in post-conflict contexts with exceedingly poor healthcare infrastructures. This study provides baseline information on community-based epidemic control priorities and identifies innovative local strategies for containing EVD in Liberia.In this study the authors analyzed data from the 2014 Ebola outbreak in Monrovia and Montserrado County, Liberia. The data were collected for the purposes of program design and evaluation by the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Government of Liberia (GOL), in order to identify: (1) local knowledge about EVD, (2) local responses to the outbreak, and (3) community based innovations to contain the virus. At the time of data collection, the international Ebola response had little insight into how much local Liberian communities knew about Ebola, and how communities managed the epidemic when they could not get access to care due to widespread hospital and clinic closures. Methods included 15 focus group discussions with community leaders from areas with active Ebola cases. Participants were asked about best practices and what they were currently doing to manage EVD in their respective communities, with the goal of developing conceptual models of local responses informed by local narratives. Findings reveal that communities responded to the outbreak in numerous ways that both supported and discouraged formal efforts to contain the spread of the disease. This research will inform global health policy for both this, and future, epidemic and pandemic responses