Beating the news using social media: the case study of American Idol

We present a contribution to the debate on the predictability of social events using big data analytics. We focus on the elimination of contestants in the American Idol TV shows as an example of a well defined electoral phenomenon that each week draws millions of votes in the USA. This event can be considered as basic test in a simplified environment to assess the predictive power of Twitter signals. We provide evidence that Twitter activity during the time span defined by the TV show airing and the voting period following it correlates with the contestants ranking and allows the anticipation of the voting outcome. Twitter data from the show and the voting period of the season finale have been analyzed to attempt the winner prediction ahead of the airing of the official result. We also show that the fraction of tweets that contain geolocation information allows us to map the fanbase of each contestant, both within the US and abroad, showing that strong regional polarizations occur. The geolocalized data are crucial for the correct prediction of the final outcome of the show, pointing out the importance of considering information beyond the aggregated Twitter signal. Although American Idol voting is just a minimal and simplified version of complex societal phenomena such as political elections, this work shows that the volume of information available in online systems permits the real time gathering of quantitative indicators that may be able to anticipate the future unfolding of opinion formation events

Gelation as arrested phase separation in short-ranged attractive colloid-polymer mixtures

We present further evidence that gelation is an arrested phase separation in attractive colloid-polymer mixtures, based on a method combining confocal microscopy experiments with numerical simulations recently established in {\bf Nature 453, 499 (2008)}. Our results are independent of the form of the interparticle attractive potential, and therefore should apply broadly to any attractive particle system with short-ranged, isotropic attractions. We also give additional characterization of the gel states in terms of their structure, inhomogeneous character and local density.Comment: 6 figures, to be published in J. Phys. Condens. Matter, special issue for EPS Liquids Conference 200

The topology of a discussion: the #occupy case

We analyse a large sample of the Twitter activity developed around the social movement 'Occupy Wall Street' to study the complex interactions between the human communication activity and the semantic content of a discussion. We use a network approach based on the analysis of the bipartite graph @Users-#Hashtags and of its projections: the 'semantic network', whose nodes are hashtags, and the 'users interest network', whose nodes are users In the first instance, we find out that discussion topics (#hashtags) present a high heterogeneity, with the distinct role of the communication hubs where most the 'opinion traffic' passes through. In the second case, the self-organization process of users activity leads to the emergence of two classes of communicators: the 'professionals' and the 'amateurs'. Moreover the network presents a strong community structure, based on the differentiation of the semantic topics, and a high level of structural robustness when a certain set of topics are censored and/or accounts are removed. Analysing the characteristics the @Users-#Hashtags network we can distinguish three phases of the discussion about the movement. Each phase corresponds to specific moment of the movement: from declaration of intent, organisation and development and the final phase of political reactions. Each phase is characterised by the presence of specific #hashtags in the discussion. Keywords: Twitter, Network analysisComment: 13 pages, 9 figure

Asymmetric statistics of order books: The role of discreteness and evidence for strategic order placement

We show that the statistics of spreads in real order books is characterized by an intrinsic asymmetry due to discreteness effects for even or odd values of the spread. An analysis of data from the NYSE order book points out that traders' strategies contribute to this asymmetry. We also investigate this phenomenon in the framework of a microscopic model and, by introducing a non-uniform deposition mechanism for limit orders, we are able to quantitatively reproduce the asymmetry found in the experimental data. Simulations of our model also show a realistic dynamics with a sort of intermittent behavior characterized by long periods in which the order book is compact and liquid interrupted by volatile configurations. The order placement strategies produce a non-trivial behavior of the spread relaxation dynamics which is similar to the one observed in real markets.Comment: 18 pages, 12 figure

Effects of chronic inflammatory bowel diseases on left ventricular structure and function: a study protocol

BACKGROUND: Experimental evidences suggest an increased collagen deposition in inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD). In particular, large amounts of collagen type I, III and V have been described and correlated to the development of intestinal fibrotic lesions. No information has been available until now about the possible increased collagen deposition far from the main target organ. In the hypothesis that chronic inflammation and increased collagen metabolism are reflected also in the systemic circulation, we aimed this study to evaluate the effects on left ventricular wall structure by assessing splancnic and systemic collagen metabolism (procollagen III assay), deposition (ultrasonic tissue characterization), and cardiac function (echocardiography) in patients with different long standing history of IBD, before and after surgery. METHODS: Thirty patients affected by active IBD, 15 with Crohn and 15 with Ulcerative Colitis, submitted to surgery will be enrolled in the study in a double blind fashion. They will be studied before the surgical operation and 6, 12 months after surgery. A control group of 15 healthy age and gender-matched subjects will also be studied. At each interval blood samples will be collected in order to assess the collagen metabolism; a transthoracic echocardiogram will be recorded for the subsequent determination of cardiac function and collagen deposition. DISCUSSION: From this study protocol we expect additional information about the association between IBD and cardiovascular disorders; in particular to address the question if chronic inflammation, through the altered collagen metabolism, could affect left ventricular structure and function in a manner directly related to the estimated duration of the disease

Episodes of Fall Asleep During Day Time in an Elder Woman with Vascular Dementia: Impact on Cerebral Ischeamic Tolerance and Utility of ECG Holter Monitoring

Here we report the case of an 86-year-old woman with advanced dementia addressed to our service for routinary ECG Holter Monitoring (EHM) for bradycardia in AV block type I. Several day-time episodes of fall-asleep while sitting had been previously reported by the nurse and generally attributed to the dementia itself, without taking into consideration the hypothesis of an AV block. The EHM reading reported several and often subsequent pauses (561), many of them critical, the longest lasting 15,9 s with no changes in clinical condition of the patient. The results of the EHM were reported to the physicians in charge for the patient and subsequently the woman was referred to the arrhythmology unit for pace-maker device implantation. Generalizing our experience, we suggest that advanced dementia, often associated with episodes of fall-asleep, could mask a conduction disturbance causing critical pauses with syncope; therefore we suggest screening those patients for possible arrhythmic disorders. Finally, we remark that in our patient the pauses weren’t associated with a worsening of the patient as seen in the follow-up, and this fact supports the hypothesis that vascular dementia could increase cerebral ischaemic tolerance

Efficient and robust RNA-seq process for cultured bacteria and complex community transcriptomes

We have developed a process for transcriptome analysis of bacterial communities that accommodates both intact and fragmented starting RNA and combines efficient rRNA removal with strand-specific RNA-seq. We applied this approach to an RNA mixture derived from three diverse cultured bacterial species and to RNA isolated from clinical stool samples. The resulting expression profiles were highly reproducible, enriched up to 40-fold for non-rRNA transcripts, and correlated well with profiles representing undepleted total RNA

Myocardial ultrasonic tissue characterization in patients with thyroid dysfunction

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Structural myocardial abnormalities have been extensively documented in hypothyroidism. Experimental studies in animal models have also shown involvement of thyroid hormones in gene expression of myocardial collagen. This study was planned to investigate the ability of ultrasonic tissue characterization, as evaluated by integrated backscatter (IBS), to early identify myocardial involvement in thyroid dysfunction.</p> <p>Patients and Methods</p> <p>We studied 15 patients with hyperthyroidism (HYPER), 8 patients with hypothyroidism (HYPO), 14 patients with subclinical hypothyroidism (SCH) and 19 normal (N) subjects, who had normal LV systolic function. After treatment, 10 HYPER, 6 HYPO, and 8 SCH patients were reevaluated. IBS images were obtained and analyzed in parasternal short axis (papillary muscle level) view, at left ventricular (LV) posterior wall. The following IBS variables were analyzed: 1) the corrected coefficient (CC) of IBS, obtained by dividing IBS intensity by IBS intensity measured in a rubber phantom, using the same equipment adjustments, at the same depth; 2) cardiac cyclic variation (CV) of IBS - peak-to-peak difference between maximal and minimal values of IBS during cardiac cycle; 3) cardiac cyclic variation index (CVI) of IBS - percentual relationship between the cyclic variation (CV) and the mean value of IBS intensity.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>CC of IBS was significantly larger (p < 0.05) in HYPER (1.57 ± 0.6) and HYPO (1.53 ± 0.3) as compared to SCH (1.32 ± 0.3) or N (1.15 ± 0.27). The CV (dB) (HYPO: 7.5 ± 2.4; SCH: 8.2 ± 3.1; HYPER: 8.2 ± 2.0) and the CVI (HYPO: 35.6 ± 19.7%; SCH: 34.7 ± 17.5%; HYPER: 37.8 ± 11.6%) were not significantly different in patients with thyroid dysfunction as compared to N (7.0 ± 2.0 and 44.5 ± 15.1%).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>CC of IBS was able to differentiate cardiac involvement in patients with overt HYPO and HYPER who had normal LV systolic function. These early myocardial structural abnormalities were partially reversed by drug therapy in HYPER group. On the other hand, although mean IBS intensity tended to be slightly larger in patients with SCH as compared to N, this difference was not statistical significant.</p