Cost implications of delays to tuberculosis diagnosis among pulmonary tuberculosis patients in Ethiopia

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Delays seeking care worsen the burden of tuberculosis and cost of care for patients, families and the public health system. This study investigates costs of tuberculosis diagnosis incurred by patients, escorts and the public health system in 10 districts of Ethiopia.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>New pulmonary tuberculosis patients ≥ 15 years old were interviewed regarding their health care seeking behaviour at the time of diagnosis. Using a structured questionnaire patients were interviewed about the duration of delay at alternative care providers and the public health system prior to diagnosis. Costs incurred by patients, escorts and the public health system were quantified through patient interview and review of medical records.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Interviews were held with 537 (58%) smear positive patients and 387 (42%) smear negative pulmonary patients. Of these, 413 (45%) were female; 451 (49%) were rural residents; and the median age was 34 years. The mean (median) days elapsed for consultation at alternative care providers and public health facilities prior to tuberculosis diagnosis was 5 days (0 days) and 3 (3 days) respectively. The total median cost incurred from first consultation to diagnosis was $27 per patient (mean =$59). The median costs per patient incurred by patient, escort and the public health system were $16 (mean =$29), $3 (mean =$23) and $3 (mean =$7) respectively. The total cost per patient diagnosed was higher for women, rural residents; those who received government food for work support, patients with smear negative pulmonary tuberculosis and patients who were not screened for TB in at least one district diagnostic centers.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The costs of tuberculosis diagnosis incurred by patients and escorts represent a significant portion of their monthly income. The costs arising from time lost in seeking care comprised a major portion of the total cost of diagnosis, and may worsen the economic position of patients and their families. Getting treatment from alternative sources and low index of suspicion public health providers were key problems contributing to increased cost of tuberculosis diagnosis. Thus, the institution of effective systems of referral, ensuring screening of suspects across the district public health system and the involvement of alternative care providers in district tuberculosis control can reduce delays and the financial burden to patients and escorts.</p

Community health workers: their knowledge on pulmonary tuberculosis and willingness to be treatment supervisors Tigray, Northern Ethiopia

Background: Poor treatment adherence to tuberculosis treatment is a problem among rural patients Ethiopia. We aimed to decentralize directly observed treatment of tuberculosis at village level volunteer Community Health Workers (CHWs) in order to improve treatment adherence. However, need to determine their training needs and willingness to supervise treatment of patients with tuberculosis their respective villages. Objectives: To assess CHWs' knowledge of Pulmonary Tuberculosis (PTB) disease and their willingness supervise tuberculosis treatment. Method: A cross-sectional survey was conducted in 8 districts of Tigray, Ethiopia in June 2002. A 279 CHWs were selected from 70 villages using a multistage cluster sampling technique. CHWs interviewed by trained nurses using a structured questionnaire. Result: CHWs' mean and median knowledge score about PTB was 79.8% and 80% respectively. mentioned exposure to cold (43%) and bacteria (40.5%) as causes of PTB disease while coughing as its primary means of transmission. Most (90.3%) were willing to supervise tuberculosis treatment. CHWs who reside in rural villages (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR)=2.93; 95% Confidence Interval (CI)= 6.91) and those who had been entitled to free medical services (AOR=2.95; 95% CI=1.17-7.55) were willing to be treatment supervisors. CHWs were less likely to be treatment supervisors when accountability to more than one village-based institutions (AOR=0.35; 95% CI=0.14-0.91).Conclusion: CHWs should be trained on tuberculosis and its management prior to their involvement tuberculosis treatment supervision. Reducing CHWs' multiple responsibilities and continuous health support would be essential to sustain their volunteer services.The Ethiopian Journal of Health Development Vol. 19 2005: 28-3

Community knowledge, attitudes and practices on pulmonary tuberculosis and their choice of treatment supervisor in Tigray, Northern Ethiopia

Background: We planned to raise public awareness and decentralize directly observed tuberculosis treatment at village level using volunteer community members in order to reduce prolonged delays in seeking care and improve compliance to tuberculosis treatment. We do not know the magnitude of tuberculosis knowledge gap and preferred modality of tuberculosis treatment supervision among the public in Tigray. Objectives: To assess knowledge of pulmonary tuberculosis and to determine level of acceptance regarding villagebased tuberculosis treatment using volunteers among the general public.Method: A cross sectional survey was conducted among 838 adults (915 years) in 8 districts of Tigray region. Respondents selected from 70 villages using a multistage cluster sampling technique were interviewed using a pre-tested questionnaire in July 2002. Result: The mean and median knowledge score of respondents about pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) was 5.24 and 6.67 (maximum score of 10) respectively. Female respondents (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR)=1.86; 95% Confidence interval (CI)=1.39-2.47), illiterates (AOR=1.64; 95% CI=1.1-2.47) and rural residents (AOR=1.95; 95% CI=1.37- 2.76) were more likely to have a low level of knowledge score. Among respondents who had prior knowledge of PTB (n=717), 599 (83.5%) accepted the idea of tuberculosis (TB) treatment by volunteer community members. Illiterates, rural residents, married and respondents with large family size were more likely to support supervised TB-treatment using volunteers. Respondents' preferred treatment supervisors were: volunteer community health workers (60%), public health staff (16.5%) and family members (12.7%).Conclusion: There is a wide knowledge gap among the public regarding PTB. The idea of organizing directly observed TB treatment using volunteers appears to be accepted. The Ethiopian Journal of Health Development Vol. 19 2005: 21-2

Delays and care seeking behavior among tuberculosis patients in Tigray of Northern Ethiopia

Background: Delayed initiation of treatment among tuberculosis patients is a common problem which might contribute to the high burden of tuberculosis in Ethiopia. There is paucity of evidence on the magnitude of delay and why patients fail to seek modern care early in Tigray. Objectives: To assess patient and health service delays and factors for delay among tuberculosis patients. Methods: Adult tuberculosis patients who began treatment (12/10/2001-15/05/2002) in 47 public health institutions were interviewed using a pre-tested questionnaire to gather information about their health seeking behaviour. Patient charts were also reviewed to determine the magnitude of delays. Result: The median patient delay for 42 pulmonary smear positive, 101 pulmonary smear negative and 94 extra-pulmonary tuberculosis patients was 90 days, 60 days and 90 days respectively, while the overall median health service delay was 9 days. Delayed first consultation (>21 days since onset of illness) was significantly higher among patients with no formal education (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR)=2.46; 95%Confidence Interval (CI)=1.21-5.01), among those treated first by a private and/or traditional practitioner (AOR=2.9; 95% CI=1.42-6.08), among those who thought their illness not serious (AOR=2.39; 95% CI= 1.52-3.78) and among those who suspected they had tuberculosis (AOR=2.5; 95% CI=1.18-5.29). Conclusion: This unacceptably long patient delay calls for identification and inclusion of feasible strategies to promote early treatment in the national tuberculosis control program. The Ethiopian Journal of Health Development Vol. 19 2005: 7-1

Evaluation of the Pyrrolizidine Alkaloid Induced Liver Disease (PAILD) Active Surveillance System in Tigray, Ethiopia

Pyrrolizidine Alkaloid Induced Liver Disease has been an emerging public health problem in the Tigray region in Ethiopia since 2002, with 1033 cases, including 314 deaths, detected as of September 2011. Disease surveillance started in 2009 to determine the magnitude and distribution of the disease, to detect and manage cases, and to inform officials for resource allocation. Despite limited resources and logistical challenges, the system operated at a high standard and met its original objectives. Maintenance of this high level of operation will be an ongoing challenge but will be critical to ensure continual disease monitoring through this system

Evaluation of the Pyrrolizidine Alkaloid Induced Liver Disease (PAILD) Active Surveillance System in Tigray, Ethiopia

OBJECTIVE: To describe the results of the evaluation of the PAILD active surveillance system and lessons learned for similar surveillance efforts in a resource-limited setting. INTRODUCTION: A liver disease of unknown etiology, called unknown liver disease (ULD) by the community, was first identified in 2002 in Tigray; a rugged, semi-arid, mountainous region that is considered one of the most drought-prone and food insecure regions of Ethiopia. ULD is a chronic condition characterized by epigastric pain, abdominal distention, ascites, emaciation, and hepato/splenomegaly. In 2005, the Ethiopian Health and Nutritional Research Institute was assigned by the Ethiopia Ministry of Health to assist the Tigray Regional Health Bureau and oversee the disease investigation. In 2008, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) assisted the Ethiopian team and jointly developed the surveillance tools. The surveillance system was implemented in 2009 with the objectives to determine the magnitude and distribution of the disease; identify disease trends; detect cases to provide them with clinical care; and inform health officials and funding bodies for resource allocation. After several investigations, a local plant containing a particular type of pyrrolizidine alkaloid (PA) toxin that contaminated local foodstuffs was identified as the etiologic agent, and ULD was renamed PAILD in 2011. METHODS: From 20 September to 1 October 2011, we conducted site visits, held semi-structured interviews with 20 staff members, reviewed reporting materials, and summarized the information flow including data collection, reporting, analysis, and dissemination. RESULTS: This surveillance system was implemented in 13 rural, resource-limited districts in the NW, Central and Western Zones. The system identified a total of 1033 cases, including 314 deaths, as of September 2011; guided medication distribution to the health facilities; served as a registry for patient follow up; and provided decision-makers with information needed to allocate resources. A large-scale training was conducted in 2010; however, high staff turnover and a lack of backup surveillance staff at each site suggested that additional training may be needed. Due to the absence of a diagnostic test, the case definition was very simple to enable frontline staff in the communities and at the health posts/centers to identify disease cases. These individuals travelled long distances by foot to deliver paper surveillance forms to the district health offices. A surveillance team placed in the NW Zonal office collected missing reports from the health facilities given limited transportation; however they have left since this evaluation. Information from the surveillance system was shared with partner agencies at the national level every 3 to 6 months; however, this information was not shared with frontline staff. CONCLUSIONS: The PAILD Active Surveillance System met its objectives as originally defined. Evaluation of this unique surveillance system for a chronic disease with unknown cause in a resource-limited setting provides several lessons that can inform similar surveillance efforts. Ongoing logistical challenges (e.g., shortage of paper forms, lack of transportation, and long distances between locations) complicated data collection and reporting. While electronic reporting may have helped overcome some of these difficulties, it was not feasible in this setting. Frontline staff identified cases in the community so that they could receive treatment; these key staff can be further incentivized by receiving regular training and surveillance reports. Ongoing support will be critical to overcome these unique challenges to ensure continual disease monitoring as interventions to disrupt PA exposure are implemented in the community

Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundAccurate assessments of current and future fertility—including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions—are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios. MethodsTo estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10–54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression—Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values—a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy—by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007–21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline. FindingsDuring the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63–5·06) to 2·23 (2·09–2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137–147), declining to 129 million (121–138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1—canonically considered replacement-level fertility—in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7–29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59–2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25–1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6–43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1–59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions—decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7–25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3–19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4–10·1) in 2100—but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40–1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35–1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction. InterpretationFertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world. FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation