Estimating the potential survival gains by eliminating socioeconomic and sex inequalities in stage at diagnosis of melanoma

Background: Although inequalities in cancer survival are thought to reflect inequalities in stage at diagnosis, little evidence exists about the size of potential survival gains from eliminating inequalities in stage at diagnosis

Modelling the cost-effectiveness of public awareness campaigns for the early detection of non-small-cell lung cancer

Background: Survival rates in lung cancer in England are significantly lower than in many similar countries. A range of Be Clear on Cancer (BCOC) campaigns have been conducted targeting lung cancer and found to improve the proportion of diagnoses at the early stage of disease. This paper considers the cost-effectiveness of such campaigns, evaluating the effect of both the regional and national BCOC campaigns on the stage distribution of non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) at diagnosis. Methods: A natural history model of NSCLC was developed using incidence data, data elicited from clinical experts and model calibration techniques. This structure is used to consider the lifetime cost and quality-adjusted survival implications of the early awareness campaigns. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) in terms of additional costs per quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained are presented. Two scenario analyses were conducted to investigate the role of changes in the ‘worried-well’ population and the route of diagnosis that might occur as a result of the campaigns. Results: The base-case theoretical model found the regional and national early awareness campaigns to be associated with QALY gains of 289 and 178 QALYs and ICERs of d13 660 and d18 173 per QALY gained, respectively. The scenarios found that increases in the ‘worried-well’ population may impact the cost-effectiveness conclusions. Conclusions: Subject to the available evidence, the analysis suggests that early awareness campaigns in lung cancer have the potential to be cost-effective. However, significant additional research is required to address many of the limitations of this study. In addition, the estimated natural history model presents previously unavailable estimates of the prevalence and rate of disease progression in the undiagnosed population

Dynamics of a disabled population in Morocco

BACKGROUND: The disabled population constitutes a class of people needing special care and necessitating important economic and social effort. METHODS: In this paper, using specific parameter settings, partial differential equations are used to model the temporal change of the proportion of the disabled population in Morocco. RESULTS: Combining different forms and values of the parameters, a numerical method is proposed and three scenarios are considered. These forms and values are determined by data fitting and simulation. CONCLUSIONS: The experiments show clearly the dynamical evolution of the disabled population with time and age according to each scenario

Shotgun Proteomics Identifies Serum Fibronectin as a Candidate Diagnostic Biomarker for Inclusion in Future Multiplex Tests for Ectopic Pregnancy

Ectopic pregnancy (EP) is difficult to diagnose early and accurately. Women often present at emergency departments in early pregnancy with a 'pregnancy of unknown location' (PUL), and diagnosis and exclusion of EP is challenging due to a lack of reliable biomarkers. The objective of this study was to identify novel diagnostic biomarkers for EP. Shotgun proteomics, incorporating combinatorial-ligand library pre-fractionation, was used to interrogate pooled sera (n = 40) from women undergoing surgery for EP, termination of viable intrauterine pregnancy and management of non-viable intrauterine pregnancy. Western blot was used to validate results in individual sera. ELISAs were developed to interrogate sera from women with PUL (n = 120). Sera were collected at time of first symptomatic presentation and categorized according to pregnancy outcome. The main outcome measures were differences between groups and area under the receiver operating curve (ROC). Proteomics identified six biomarker candidates. Western blot detected significant differences in levels of two of these candidates. ELISA of sera from second cohort revealed that these differences were only significant for one of these candidates, fibronectin. ROC analysis of ability of fibronectin to discriminate EP from other pregnancy outcomes suggested that fibronectin has diagnostic potential (ROC 0.6439; 95% CI 0.5090 to 0.7788; P>0.05), becoming significant when 'ambiguous' medically managed PUL excluded from analysis (ROC 0.6538; 95% CI 0.5158 to 0.7918; P<0.05). Fibronectin may make a useful adjunct to future multiplex EP diagnostic tests

Estimating the potential survival gains by eliminating socioeconomic and sex inequalities in stage at diagnosis of melanoma.

BACKGROUND: Although inequalities in cancer survival are thought to reflect inequalities in stage at diagnosis, little evidence exists about the size of potential survival gains from eliminating inequalities in stage at diagnosis. METHODS: We used data on patients diagnosed with malignant melanoma in the East of England (2006-2010) to estimate the number of deaths that could be postponed by completely eliminating socioeconomic and sex differences in stage at diagnosis after fitting a flexible parametric excess mortality model. RESULTS: Stage was a strong predictor of survival. There were pronounced socioeconomic and sex inequalities in the proportion of patients diagnosed at stages III-IV (12 and 8% for least deprived men and women and 25 and 18% for most deprived men and women, respectively). For an annual cohort of 1025 incident cases in the East of England, eliminating sex and deprivation differences in stage at diagnosis would postpone approximately 24 deaths to beyond 5 years from diagnosis. Using appropriate weighting, the equivalent estimate for England would be around 215 deaths, representing 11% of all deaths observed within 5 years from diagnosis in this population. CONCLUSIONS: Reducing socioeconomic and sex inequalities in stage at diagnosis would result in substantial reductions in deaths within 5 years of a melanoma diagnosis.This article is an independent research supported by different funding bodies, beyond the authors’ own employing organisations. MJR was partially funded by a Cancer Research UK Postdoctoral Fellowship (CRUK_A13275). GL is supported by a Postdoctoral Fellowship award by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR PDF-2011-04-047) to end of 2014 and a Cancer Research UK Clinician Scientist Fellowship award (A18180) from January 2015. The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the National Health Service (NHS), the National Institute for Health Research, the Department of Health, Cancer Research UK, or any other organisation. We thank all staff at the National Cancer Registration Service, Public Health England, Eastern Office, who helped collect and code data used in this study. We particularly acknowledge the help of Dr Clement H Brown and Dr Brian A Rous who were responsible for staging.This is the final published version. It first appeared at http://www.nature.com/bjc/journal/v112/n1s/full/bjc201550a.html

Immediate chest X-ray for patients at risk of lung cancer presenting in primary care: randomised controlled feasibility trial

Background: Achieving earlier stage diagnosis is one option for improving lung cancer outcomes in the United Kingdom. Patients with lung cancer typically present with symptoms to general practitioners several times before referral or investigation. Methods: We undertook a mixed methods feasibility individually randomised controlled trial (the ELCID trial) to assess the feasibility and inform the design of a definitive, fully powered, UK-wide, Phase III trial of lowering the threshold for urgent investigation of suspected lung cancer. Patients over 60, with a smoking history, presenting with new chest symptoms to primary care, were eligible to be randomised to intervention (urgent chest X-ray) or usual care. Results: The trial design and materials were acceptable to GPs and patients. We randomised 255 patients from 22 practices, although the proportion of eligible patients who participated was lower than expected. Survey responses (89%), and the fidelity of the intervention (82% patients X-rayed within 3 weeks) were good. There was slightly higher anxiety and depression in the control arm in participants aged >75. Three patients (1.2%) were diagnosed with lung cancer. Conclusions: We have demonstrated the feasibility of individually randomising patients at higher risk of lung cancer, to a trial offering urgent investigation or usual care

Promoting help-seeking in response to symptoms amongst primary care patients at high risk of lung cancer: a mixed method study

Background: Lung cancer symptoms are vague and difficult to detect. Interventions are needed to promote early diagnosis, however health services are already pressurised. This study explored symptomology and help-seeking behaviours of primary care patients at ‘high-risk’ of lung cancer (≥50 years old, recent smoking history), to inform targeted interventions. Methods: Mixed method study with patients at eight general practitioner (GP) practices across south England. Study incorporated: postal symptom questionnaire; clinical records review of participant consultation behaviour 12 months pre- and post-questionnaire; qualitative participant interviews (n = 38) with a purposive sample. Results: A small, clinically relevant group (n = 61/908, 6.7%) of primary care patients was identified who, despite reporting potential symptoms of lung cancer in questionnaires, had not consulted a GP ≥12 months. Of nine symptoms associated with lung cancer, 53.4% (629/1172) of total respondents reported ≥1, and 35% (411/1172) reported ≥2. Most participants (77.3%, n = 686/908) had comorbid conditions; 47.8%, (n = 414/908) associated with chest and respiratory symptoms. Participant consulting behaviour significantly increased in the 3-month period following questionnaire completion compared with the previous 3-month period (p = .002), indicating questionnaires impacted upon consulting behaviour. Symptomatic non-consulters were predominantly younger, employed, with higher multiple deprivation scores than their GP practice mean. Of symptomatic non-consulters, 30% (18/61) consulted ≤1 month post-questionnaire, with comorbidities subsequently diagnosed for five participants. Interviews (n = 39) indicated three overarching differences between the views of consulting and non-consulting participants: concern over wasting their own as well as GP time; high tolerance threshold for symptoms; a greater tendency to self-manage symptoms. Conclusions: This first study to examine symptoms and consulting behaviour amongst a primary care population at ‘high- risk’ of lung cancer, found symptomatic patients who rarely consult GPs, might respond to a targeted symptom elicitation intervention. Such GP-based interventions may promote early diagnosis of lung cancer or other comorbidities, without burdening already pressurised services