Updating vital status by tracking in the community among patients with epidemic Kaposi sarcoma who are lost to follow-up in sub-Saharan Africa.

BACKGROUND: Throughout most of sub-Saharan Africa (and, indeed, most resource-limited areas), lack of death registries prohibits linkage of cancer diagnoses and precludes the most expeditious approach to determining cancer survival. Instead, estimation of cancer survival often uses clinical records, which have some mortality data but are replete with patients who are lost to follow-up (LTFU), some of which may be caused by undocumented death. The end result is that accurate estimation of cancer survival is rarely performed. A prominent example of a common cancer in Africa for which survival data are needed but for which frequent LTFU has precluded accurate estimation is Kaposi sarcoma (KS). METHODS: Using electronic records, we identified all newly diagnosed KS among HIV-infected adults at 33 primary care clinics in Kenya, Uganda, Nigeria, and Malawi from 2009 to 2012. We determined those patients who were apparently LTFU, defined as absent from clinic for ≥90 days at database closure and unknown to be dead or transferred. Using standardized protocols which included manual chart review, telephone calls, and physical tracking in the community, we attempted to update vital status amongst patients who were LTFU. RESULTS: We identified 1222 patients with KS, of whom 440 were LTFU according to electronic records. Manual chart review revealed that 18 (4.1%) were classified as LFTU due to clerical error, leaving 422 as truly LTFU. Of these 422, we updated vital status in 78%; manual chart review was responsible for updating in 5.7%, telephone calls in 26%, and physical tracking in 46%. Among 378 patients who consented at clinic enrollment to be tracked if they became LTFU and who had sufficient geographic contact/locator information, we updated vital status in 88%. Duration of LTFU was not associated with success of tracking, but tracking success was better in Kenya than the other sites. CONCLUSION: It is feasible to update vital status in a large fraction of patients with HIV-associated KS in sub-Saharan Africa who have become LTFU from clinical care. This finding likely applies to other cancers as well. Updating vital status amongst lost patients paves the way towards accurate determination of cancer survival

Pitfalls of Practicing Cancer Epidemiology in Resource-limited Settings: the Case of Survival and Loss to Follow-up after a Diagnosis of Kaposi’s Sarcoma in Five Countries across Sub-Saharan Africa

Background: Survival after diagnosis is a fundamental concern in cancer epidemiology. In resource-rich settings, ambient clinical databases, municipal data and cancer registries make survival estimation in real-world populations relatively straightforward. In resource-poor settings, given the deficiencies in a variety of health-related data systems, it is less clear how well we can determine cancer survival from ambient data. Methods: We addressed this issue in sub-Saharan Africa for Kaposi’s sarcoma (KS), a cancer for which incidence has exploded with the HIV epidemic but for which survival in the region may be changing with the recent advent of antiretroviral therapy (ART). From 33 primary care HIV Clinics in Kenya, Uganda, Malawi, Nigeria and Cameroon participating in the International Epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) Consortia in 2009–2012, we identified 1328 adults with newly diagnosed KS. Patients were evaluated from KS diagnosis until death, transfer to another facility or database closure. Results: Nominally, 22 % of patients were estimated to be dead by 2 years, but this estimate was clouded by 45 % cumulative lost to follow-up with unknown vital status by 2 years. After adjustment for site and CD4 count, agelost. Conclusions: In this community-based sample of patients diagnosed with KS in sub-Saharan Africa, almost half became lost to follow-up by 2 years. This precluded accurate estimation of survival. Until we either generally strengthen data systems or implement cancer-specific enhancements (e.g., tracking of the lost) in the region, insights from cancer epidemiology will be limited

Determinants of stillbirth from two observational studies investigating deliveries in Kano, Nigeria

Background: Stillbirths are a poignant representation of global inequality. Nigeria is documented to have the second highest rate; yet, the reporting system is inadequate in most Nigerian healthcare facilities. The aim was to identify the determinants of stillbirth among deliveries in the Murtala Muhammad Specialist Hospital (MMSH), Kano, Nigeria. Methods: Two study designs were used: a case-control study (S1) and a prospective cohort study (S2). Both studies were carried out at the MMSH. For S1, stillbirths were retrospectively matched to a livebirth by time (target of 24 hours' time variation) to establish a case-control study with a 1:1 ratio. Eligibility into S2 included all mothers who were presented at the MMSH in labour regardless of birth outcome. Both were based on recruitment durations, not sample sizes (3 months and 2 months, respectively, 2017–2018). The demographic and clinical data were collected through paper-based questionnaires. Univariable logistic regression was used. Multivariable logistic regression was used to explore relationships between area type and other specific factors. Findings: Stillbirth incidence in S2 was 180/1,000 births. Stillbirth was associated with the following factors; no maternal education, previous stillbirth(s), prematurity, living in both semi-rural and rural settings, and having extended time periods between rupture of membranes and delivery. Findings of the multivariable analysis (S1 and S2) indicated that the odds of stillbirth, for those living in a rural area, were further exacerbated in those mothers who had no education, lived in a shack, or had any maternal disease. Interpretation: This research identifies the gravity of this situation in this area and highlights the need for action. Further understanding of some of the findings and exploration into associations are required to inform intervention development. Funding: This collaboration was partially supported by funding from Health and Care Research Wales

Effects of antibiotic resistance, drug target attainment, bacterial pathogenicity and virulence, and antibiotic access and affordability on outcomes in neonatal sepsis: an international microbiology and drug evaluation prospective substudy (BARNARDS).

BACKGROUND: Sepsis is a major contributor to neonatal mortality, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). WHO advocates ampicillin-gentamicin as first-line therapy for the management of neonatal sepsis. In the BARNARDS observational cohort study of neonatal sepsis and antimicrobial resistance in LMICs, common sepsis pathogens were characterised via whole genome sequencing (WGS) and antimicrobial resistance profiles. In this substudy of BARNARDS, we aimed to assess the use and efficacy of empirical antibiotic therapies commonly used in LMICs for neonatal sepsis. METHODS: In BARNARDS, consenting mother-neonates aged 0-60 days dyads were enrolled on delivery or neonatal presentation with suspected sepsis at 12 BARNARDS clinical sites in Bangladesh, Ethiopia, India, Pakistan, Nigeria, Rwanda, and South Africa. Stillborn babies were excluded from the study. Blood samples were collected from neonates presenting with clinical signs of sepsis, and WGS and minimum inhibitory concentrations for antibiotic treatment were determined for bacterial isolates from culture-confirmed sepsis. Neonatal outcome data were collected following enrolment until 60 days of life. Antibiotic usage and neonatal outcome data were assessed. Survival analyses were adjusted to take into account potential clinical confounding variables related to the birth and pathogen. Additionally, resistance profiles, pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic probability of target attainment, and frequency of resistance (ie, resistance defined by in-vitro growth of isolates when challenged by antibiotics) were assessed. Questionnaires on health structures and antibiotic costs evaluated accessibility and affordability. FINDINGS: Between Nov 12, 2015, and Feb 1, 2018, 36 285 neonates were enrolled into the main BARNARDS study, of whom 9874 had clinically diagnosed sepsis and 5749 had available antibiotic data. The four most commonly prescribed antibiotic combinations given to 4451 neonates (77·42%) of 5749 were ampicillin-gentamicin, ceftazidime-amikacin, piperacillin-tazobactam-amikacin, and amoxicillin clavulanate-amikacin. This dataset assessed 476 prescriptions for 442 neonates treated with one of these antibiotic combinations with WGS data (all BARNARDS countries were represented in this subset except India). Multiple pathogens were isolated, totalling 457 isolates. Reported mortality was lower for neonates treated with ceftazidime-amikacin than for neonates treated with ampicillin-gentamicin (hazard ratio [adjusted for clinical variables considered potential confounders to outcomes] 0·32, 95% CI 0·14-0·72; p=0·0060). Of 390 Gram-negative isolates, 379 (97·2%) were resistant to ampicillin and 274 (70·3%) were resistant to gentamicin. Susceptibility of Gram-negative isolates to at least one antibiotic in a treatment combination was noted in 111 (28·5%) to ampicillin-gentamicin; 286 (73·3%) to amoxicillin clavulanate-amikacin; 301 (77·2%) to ceftazidime-amikacin; and 312 (80·0%) to piperacillin-tazobactam-amikacin. A probability of target attainment of 80% or more was noted in 26 neonates (33·7% [SD 0·59]) of 78 with ampicillin-gentamicin; 15 (68·0% [3·84]) of 27 with amoxicillin clavulanate-amikacin; 93 (92·7% [0·24]) of 109 with ceftazidime-amikacin; and 70 (85·3% [0·47]) of 76 with piperacillin-tazobactam-amikacin. However, antibiotic and country effects could not be distinguished. Frequency of resistance was recorded most frequently with fosfomycin (in 78 isolates [68·4%] of 114), followed by colistin (55 isolates [57·3%] of 96), and gentamicin (62 isolates [53·0%] of 117). Sites in six of the seven countries (excluding South Africa) stated that the cost of antibiotics would influence treatment of neonatal sepsis. INTERPRETATION: Our data raise questions about the empirical use of combined ampicillin-gentamicin for neonatal sepsis in LMICs because of its high resistance and high rates of frequency of resistance and low probability of target attainment. Accessibility and affordability need to be considered when advocating antibiotic treatments with variance in economic health structures across LMICs. FUNDING: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Circumstances for treatment and control of invasive Enterobacterales infections in eight hospitals across sub-Saharan Africa: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND: Bloodstream infections caused by Enterobacterales show high frequency of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in many Low- and Middle-Income Countries. We aimed to describe the variation in circumstances for management of such resistant infections in a group of African public-sector hospitals participating in a major research study. METHODS: We gathered data from eight hospitals across sub-Saharan Africa to describe hospital services, infection prevention and antibiotic stewardship activities, using two WHO-generated tools. We collected monthly cross-sectional data on availability of antibiotics in the hospital pharmacies for bloodstream infections caused by Enterobacterales. We compared the availability of these antibiotics to actual patient-level use of antibiotics in confirmed Enterobacterales bloodstream infections (BSI). RESULTS: Hospital circumstances for institutional management of resistant BSI varied markedly. This included self-evaluated infection prevention level (WHO-IPCAF score: median 428, range 155 to 687.5) and antibiotic stewardship activities (WHO stewardship toolkit questions: median 14.5, range 2 to 23). These results did not correlate with national income levels. Across all sites, ceftriaxone and ciprofloxacin were the most consistently available antibiotic agents, followed by amoxicillin, co-amoxiclav, gentamicin and co-trimoxazole. There was substantial variation in the availability of some antibiotics, especially carbapenems, amikacin and piperacillin-tazobactam with degree of access linked to national income level. Investigators described out-of-pocket payments for access to additional antibiotics at 7/8 sites. The in-pharmacy availability of antibiotics correlated well with actual use of antibiotics for treating BSI patients. CONCLUSIONS: There was wide variation between these African hospitals for a range of important circumstances relating to treatment and control of severe bacterial infections, though these did not all correspond to national income level. For most antibiotics, patient-level use reflected in-hospital drug availability, suggesting external antibiotics supply was infrequent. Antimicrobial resistant bacterial infections could plausibly show different clinical impacts across sub-Saharan Africa due to this contextual variation

Pitfalls of practicing cancer epidemiology in resource-limited settings: the case of survival and loss to follow-up after a diagnosis of Kaposi’s sarcoma in five countries across sub-Saharan Africa

Background: Survival after diagnosis is a fundamental concern in cancer epidemiology. In resource-rich settings, ambient clinical databases, municipal data and cancer registries make survival estimation in real-world populations relatively straightforward. In resource-poor settings, given the deficiencies in a variety of health-related data systems, it is less clear how well we can determine cancer survival from ambient data. Methods: We addressed this issue in sub-Saharan Africa for Kaposi’s sarcoma (KS), a cancer for which incidence has exploded with the HIV epidemic but for which survival in the region may be changing with the recent advent of antiretroviral therapy (ART). From 33 primary care HIV Clinics in Kenya, Uganda, Malawi, Nigeria and Cameroon participating in the International Epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) Consortia in 2009–2012, we identified 1328 adults with newly diagnosed KS. Patients were evaluated from KS diagnosis until death, transfer to another facility or database closure. Results: Nominally, 22 % of patients were estimated to be dead by 2 years, but this estimate was clouded by 45 % cumulative lost to follow-up with unknown vital status by 2 years. After adjustment for site and CD4 count, age <30 years and male sex were independently associated with becoming lost. Conclusions: In this community-based sample of patients diagnosed with KS in sub-Saharan Africa, almost half became lost to follow-up by 2 years. This precluded accurate estimation of survival. Until we either generally strengthen data systems or implement cancer-specific enhancements (e.g., tracking of the lost) in the region, insights from cancer epidemiology will be limited

The burden of antimicrobial resistance in the Americas in 2019: a cross-country systematic analysis

Background Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is an urgent global health challenge and a critical threat to modern health care. Quantifying its burden in the WHO Region of the Americas has been elusive—despite the region’s long history of resistance surveillance. This study provides comprehensive estimates of AMR burden in the Americas to assess this growing health threat. Methods We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributable to and associated with AMR for 23 bacterial pathogens and 88 pathogen–drug combinations for countries in the WHO Region of the Americas in 2019. We obtained data from mortality registries, surveillance systems, hospital systems, systematic literature reviews, and other sources, and applied predictive statistical modelling to produce estimates of AMR burden for all countries in the Americas. Five broad components were the backbone of our approach: the number of deaths where infection had a role, the proportion of infectious deaths attributable to a given infectious syndrome, the proportion of infectious syndrome deaths attributable to a given pathogen, the percentage of pathogens resistant to an antibiotic class, and the excess risk of mortality (or duration of an infection) associated with this resistance. We then used these components to estimate the disease burden by applying two counterfactual scenarios: deaths attributable to AMR (compared to an alternative scenario where resistant infections are replaced with susceptible ones), and deaths associated with AMR (compared to an alternative scenario where resistant infections would not occur at all). We generated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for final estimates as the 25th and 975th ordered values across 1000 posterior draws, and models were cross-validated for out-of-sample predictive validity. Findings We estimated 569,000 deaths (95% UI 406,000–771,000) associated with bacterial AMR and 141,000 deaths (99,900–196,000) attributable to bacterial AMR among the 35 countries in the WHO Region of the Americas in 2019. Lower respiratory and thorax infections, as a syndrome, were responsible for the largest fatal burden of AMR in the region, with 189,000 deaths (149,000–241,000) associated with resistance, followed by bloodstream infections (169,000 deaths [94,200–278,000]) and peritoneal/intra-abdominal infections (118,000 deaths [78,600–168,000]). The six leading pathogens (by order of number of deaths associated with resistance) were Staphylococcus aureus, Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, and Acinetobacter baumannii. Together, these pathogens were responsible for 452,000 deaths (326,000–608,000) associated with AMR. Methicillin-resistant S. aureus predominated as the leading pathogen–drug combination in 34 countries for deaths attributable to AMR, while aminopenicillin-resistant E. coli was the leading pathogen–drug combination in 15 countries for deaths associated with AMR. Interpretation Given the burden across different countries, infectious syndromes, and pathogen–drug combinations, AMR represents a substantial health threat in the Americas. Countries with low access to antibiotics and basic health-care services often face the largest age-standardised mortality rates associated with and attributable to AMR in the region, implicating specific policy interventions. Evidence from this study can guide mitigation efforts that are tailored to the needs of each country in the region while informing decisions regarding funding and resource allocation. Multisectoral and joint cooperative efforts among countries will be a key to success in tackling AMR in the Americas.publishedVersio

Mortality associated with third-generation cephalosporin resistance in Enterobacterales bloodstream infections at eight sub-Saharan African hospitals (MBIRA): a prospective cohort study

Bacteria of the order Enterobacterales are common pathogens causing bloodstream infections in sub-Saharan Africa and are frequently resistant to third-generation cephalosporin antibiotics. Although third-generation cephalosporin resistance is believed to lead to adverse outcomes, this relationship is difficult to quantify and has rarely been studied in this region. We aimed to measure the effects associated with resistance to third-generation cephalosporins in hospitalised patients with Enterobacterales bloodstream infection in Africa. We conducted a prospective, matched, parallel cohort study at eight hospitals across sub-Saharan Africa. We recruited consecutive patients of all age groups with laboratory-confirmed Enterobacterales bloodstream infection and matched them to at least one patient without bloodstream infection on the basis of age group, hospital ward, and admission date. Date of infection onset (and enrolment) was defined as the day of blood sample collection for culturing. Patients infected with bacteria with a cefotaxime minimum inhibitory concentration of 1 mg/L or lower were included in the third-generation cephalosporin-susceptible (3GC-S) cohort, and the remainder were included in the third-generation cephalosporin-resistant (3GC-R) cohort. The primary outcomes were in-hospital death and death within 30 days of enrolment. We used adjusted multivariable regression models to first compare patients with bloodstream infection against matched patients within the 3GC-S and 3GC-R cohorts, then compared estimates between cohorts. Between Nov 1, 2020, and Jan 31, 2022, we recruited 878 patients with Enterobacterales bloodstream infection (221 [25·2%] to the 3GC-S cohort and 657 [74·8%] to the 3GC-R cohort) and 1634 matched patients (420 [25·7%] and 1214 [74·3%], respectively). 502 (57·2%) bloodstream infections occurred in neonates and infants (age 0-364 days). Klebsiella pneumoniae (393 [44·8%] infections) and Escherichia coli (224 [25·5%] infections) were the most common Enterobacterales species identified. The proportion of patients who died in hospital was higher in patients with bloodstream infection than in matched controls in the 3GC-S cohort (62 [28·1%] of 221 vs 22 [5·2%] of 420; cause-specific hazard ratio 6·79 [95% CI 4·06-11·37] from Cox model) and the 3GC-R cohort (244 [37·1%] of 657 vs 115 [9·5%] of 1214; 5·01 [3·96-6·32]). The ratio of these cause-specific hazard ratios showed no significant difference in risk of in-hospital death in the 3GC-R cohort versus the 3GC-S cohort (0·74 [0·42-1·30]). The ratio of relative risk of death within 30 days (0·82 [95% CI 0·53-1·27]) also indicated no difference between the cohorts. Patients with bloodstream infections with Enterobacterales bacteria either resistant or susceptible to third-generation cephalosporins had increased mortality compared with uninfected matched patients, with no differential effect related to third-generation cephalosporin-resistance status. However, this finding does not account for time to appropriate antibiotic treatment, which remains clinically important to optimise. Measures to prevent transmission of Enterobacterales could reduce bloodstream infection-associated mortality from both drug-resistant and drug-susceptible bacterial strains in Africa

Characterization of antimicrobial resistant Gram-negative bacteria that cause neonatal sepsis in seven low and middle-income countries

Antimicrobial resistance in neonatal sepsis is rising, yet mechanisms of resistance that often spread between species via mobile genetic elements, ultimately limiting treatments in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), are poorly characterized. The Burden of Antibiotic Resistance in Neonates from Developing Societies (BARNARDS) network was initiated to characterize the cause and burden of antimicrobial resistance in neonatal sepsis for seven LMICs in Africa and South Asia. A total of 36,285 neonates were enrolled in the BARNARDS study between November 2015 and December 2017, of whom 2,483 were diagnosed with culture-confirmed sepsis. Klebsiella pneumoniae (n = 258) was the main cause of neonatal sepsis, with Serratia marcescens (n = 151), Klebsiella michiganensis (n = 117), Escherichia coli (n = 75) and Enterobacter cloacae complex (n = 57) also detected. We present whole-genome sequencing, antimicrobial susceptibility and clinical data for 916 out of 1,038 neonatal sepsis isolates (97 isolates were not recovered from initial isolation at local sites). Enterobacterales (K. pneumoniae, E. coli and E. cloacae) harboured multiple cephalosporin and carbapenem resistance genes. All isolated pathogens were resistant to multiple antibiotic classes, including those used to treat neonatal sepsis. Intraspecies diversity of K. pneumoniae and E. coli indicated that multiple antibiotic-resistant lineages cause neonatal sepsis. Our results will underpin research towards better treatments for neonatal sepsis in LMICs