Understanding Role of Security Dilemma in South Asia: Implications for Strategic Stability

Security Dilemma is a phenomenon in International Relations most typically associated to Realist School of thought and particularly to Structural Realism. It is a concept that entails a predominant notion that states in global international structure rely on their own potentials and considering that realist international order is anarchic, there are often chances where relative gains of one state prejudice relative gains of another. Security Dilemma is a byproduct of actions and reactions of contending state actors built around their national security architecture. It can be understood to be a combination of strategic decision-making and fractures therein caused by reciprocating maneuvers by adversaries. Security dilemma in international relations has taken roots from the Cold War where bipolarity was seen as a potent equalizer through brinkmanship. Security dilemma in such Cold War context was built around Massive Retaliation Doctrines being too vulnerable to avert risk reduction and a total erosion of deterrence capability and credibility. Pakistan and India, have often relied on Cold War stratagem to achieve their strategic equilibrium which makes up a dominant portion of South Asia’s security dilemma. In this paper, we will examine the paradigms of Security Dilemma and prospective strategies to manage the spiral effect on strategic equilibrium in South Asia. This paper will also place focus on various instances where Security Dilemma remained operable and played a role in transformation of strategic dimensions between Pakistan and India. The aim of this research is to operationalize the necessity of security dilemma orientedreactionary responses in South Asia and the consequent effect on bilateralism between Pakistan and India. The paper will rely on constructivism and structural realist paradigms to understand state behavior from a communicative standpoint

Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic. Findings: Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44–2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64–3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7–17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8–6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7–10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0–234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7–198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3–214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0–171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3–51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9–52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54–1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5–9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0–19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9–21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0–17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7–27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6–63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4–64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6–2·9) between 2019 and 2021. Interpretation: Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Methods: The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk–outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk–outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk–outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk–outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws. Findings: Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7–9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4–9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7–6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8–6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8–6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0–4 years and 5–14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9–27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5–28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3–56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9–21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3–12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6–1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1–1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4–78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2–72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP). Interpretation: Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Alopecia in pediatric population: A Clinico-epidemiological study

Introduction: Alopecia or hair loss is a common disorder seen in pediatric population. The causes of alopecia in children are varied such as tinea capitis, alopecia areata, telogen effluvium, bacterial infections, hair shaft defects, genetic and systemic disorders. In the past there have been only few studies regarding alopecia in children though many studies in adults have been conducted. Objectives: The present study was done to investigate the common and uncommon causes of alopecia in children. Materials and Methods: The study was conducted in dermatology department of SKIMS Medical college, Srinagar, Kashmir.It included 100 patients of alopecia meeting the inclusion and exclusion criteria.In addition to history and examination various laboratory investigations were performed to assess the cause of hair loss. Results: The results of the study showed the frequency of alopecia being more common in males(61%) as compared to females(39%). The commonest cause of alopecia was tinea capitis followed by alopecia areata and diffuse hair loss, the other uncommon causes being traction alopecia, trichotillomania, aplasia cutis and nevus sebaceous. Conclusion: The present study assessed the causes of alopecia in children and thus laid emphasis on early diagnosis and treatment of alopecia to prevent its progression to irreversible hair loss and damage

Strategic Realignment at Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean: Recalibrating Sea Lines of Communications (SLOC) in Restructuring Maritime Cooperation

With geostrategic canvas around Strait of Hormuz receiving significant strategic realignments and the Middle East revisiting its approach towards prospective confrontations, Pakistan would be mandated to utilize its maritime expertise for avoiding polarization. Gwadar is the hallmark of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and has received substantive challenges in operating as a spearhead of future maritime posturing in Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean. China and Pakistan have significantly shared their vision for Gwadar and Iran is also expecting similar offers to its Chabahar port. Attention is slim, if not non-existent, in this larger canvas for smaller ports of Pakistan that may have significant geo-strategic value in prospective future for naval securitization of entire region. Pakistan can utilize its maritime vantage points not only as a junction for maritime strategies but also as an intersection for international collaboration. The spillover of this realignment on the India Ocean has also converged interests between India, America and the Middle East which is a new realignment in itself. This paper will explore possibilities of strategic realignments in the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean after CPEC, America‟s new containment strategy post-Abraham Accords as a new link to its strategic alignment with India. This paper will also explain Iran's probable posture within prospective strategic realignment at the Arabian Sea, Indian Ocean and the Gulf. It will also explore possibilities of connecting international strategic interests in the Hormuz region between principal investors and contending stakeholders. The paper will utilize existing strategies for geoeconomic operationalization of maritime junctions and how they interplay in contemporary geo-strategic shifts in power politics

Serum Iron profile in Female patients of Melasma: A case control study

Background: Melasma is a common acquired pigmentary dermatosis characterized by presence of symmetric, hyperpigmented patches, most commonly seen on the face. It is most commonly seen in young to middle aged females. The exact cause of melasma is not known, however a number of factors have been implicated in its etiopathogenesis. The effect of body iron stores on melasma is not exactly known. Although iron overload has been seen to affect skin pigmentation, effect of low body iron stores on skin pigmentation is unknown. In this study, we evaluated total body iron stores by assessing serum iron , ferritin and total iron binding capacity (TIBC) level among nonpregnant females with and without melasma. Materials and Methods: A cross-sectional case control study was conducted in 2016 at Department of Dermatology, Government Medical College, Jammu for a period of one year. The study comprised of 70 non pregnant females with and without melasma . Serum iron level, TIBC and ferritin in the two groups were measured and compared. The severity of melasma was assessed on the basis of MASI score. The correlation between severity of melasma and derangements in iron profile were also assessed in the study.Results: Comparison of serum Iron levels in cases and controls showed lower levels in patients of melasma(58.84± 29.17) as compared to control population (82.26± 45.83) ;p<0.001. Serum ferritin levels were found to be lower in patients of melasma (20.06±18.64) as compared tp control population(42.29±30.08);p<0.001.Comparison of serum TIBC between cases and controls showed higher values in cases(424±58 98.33) compared to control population (384.45± 74.55) p<0.007.Also a positive correlation was found between severity of melasma as per MASI score and derangement in Iron profile. Conclusion: Serum Iron, ferritin levels were found to be significantly lower in patients of melasma compared to the control population whereas Total iron binding capacity(TIBC) was found to be higher in patients of melasma compared to the control population indicating low body iron storesin patients of melasma. The severity of maelasma as per MASI score correlated well with the derangements in iron profile. Hence patients with melasma had low body Iron stores compared to control population indicating a possible role of iron deficiencyin the etiopathogenesis of melasma

Sheehan’s Syndrome Presenting as Major Depressive Disorder

Sheehan’s syndrome or Simmond’s disease is a rare endocrine disorder seen in clinical practice. The clinical spectrum is diverse and a high index of suspicion together with a good clinical acumen and proper diagnostic approach helps in early diagnosis and prompt treatment of this endocrinopathy. Sheehan’s syndrome presenting as a major depressive disorder finds less mention in the literature. The patient discussed here is a 45-year-old female who had been on antidepressants and psychiatry follow up for a long time until she presented to our Out Patient Department (OPD), where she was evaluated in detail and diagnosed as a case of Sheehan’s syndrome. The patient is doing well and is on a regular follow-up with us. Further studies are required to demystify the strength of this association in more detail and to elucidate the possible underlying mechanism

SARS-CoV-2 specific IgG antibodies among participants presenting to a voluntary testing facility in Srinagar, Kashmir

Background: The tide of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2(SARS-CoV-2) pandemic has scoured the global community with India, from 30 January 2020 to 30 September 2021, reporting 33,739,980 confirmed cases and over 448,090 deaths from coronavirus disease (COVID-19). Serologic testing for SARS-CoV-2 infection among the general public will provide essential information regarding the risk of infection. So, the present study was conducted to provide relevant information on the proportion of people who hadexperienced either a recent or past infection. Methodology: A cross-sectional study was conducted among adults >18 years in the Department of Community Medicine, Government medical college, Srinagar. Blood samples of the participants were tested for the presence of SARS-CoV-2-specific IgG antibodies using a chemiluminescent microparticle immunoassay-based serologic test. Results: A total of 2,107 participants took part in the study. The overall unadjusted seroprevalence of IgG antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 in our study was 49%. The age-adjusted seroprevalence was 52%. Conclusion: The findings of the study suggested that not only a large proportion (49%) of the participants had been infected with COVID-19 infection but many were also susceptible to infection. Therefore, infection control measures still need to be followed properly