Nomogram to predict the outcomes of patients with microsatellite instability-high metastatic colorectal cancer receiving immune checkpoint inhibitors

Neoplasias gastrointestinales; InmunoterapiaNeoplàsies gastrointestinals; ImmunoteràpiaGastrointestinal neoplasms; ImmunotherapyBackground The efficacy of immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) in patients with microsatellite instability (MSI)-high metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) is unprecedented. A relevant proportion of subjects achieving durable disease control may be considered potentially ‘cured’, as opposed to patients experiencing primary ICI refractoriness or short-term clinical benefit. We developed and externally validated a nomogram to estimate the progression-free survival (PFS) and the time-independent event-free probability (EFP) in patients with MSI-high mCRC receiving ICIs. Methods The PFS and EFP were estimated using a cure model fitted on a developing set of 163 patients and validated on a set of 146 patients with MSI-high mCRC receiving anti-programmed death (ligand)1 (PD-(L)1) ± anticytotoxic T-lymphocyte antigen 4 (CTLA-4) agents. A total of 23 putative prognostic factors were chosen and then selected using a random survival forest (RSF). The model performance in estimating PFS probability was evaluated by assessing calibration (internally—developing set and externally—validating set) and quantifying the discriminative ability (Harrell C index). Results RFS selected five variables: ICI type (anti-PD-(L)1 monotherapy vs anti-CTLA-4 combo), ECOG PS (0 vs >0), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (≤3 vs >3), platelet count, and prior treatment lines. As both in the developing and validation series most PFS events occurred within 12 months, this was chosen as cut-point for PFS prediction. The combination of the selected variables allowed estimation of the 12-month PFS (focused on patients with low chance of being cured) and the EFP (focused on patients likely to be event-free at a certain point of their follow-up). ICI type was significantly associated with disease control, as patients receiving the anti-CTLA-4-combination experienced the best outcomes. The calibration of PFS predictions was good both in the developing and validating sets. The median value of the EFP (46%) allowed segregation of two prognostic groups in both the developing (PFS HR=3.73, 95% CI 2.25 to 6.18; p<0.0001) and validating (PFS HR=1.86, 95% CI 1.07 to 3.23; p=0.0269) sets. Conclusions A nomogram based on five easily assessable variables including ICI treatment was built to estimate the outcomes of patients with MSI-high mCRC, with the potential to assist clinicians in their clinical practice. The web-based system ‘MSI mCRC Cure’ was released.The authors have not declared a specific grant for this research from any funding agency in the public, commercial or not-for-profit sectors

Long-term outcome of re-irradiation for recurrent or second primary head and neck cancer: A multi-institutional study of AIRO-Head and Neck working group

Background To report the long-term outcome of patients undergoing re-irradiation (re-RT) for a recurrent or second primary head and neck cancer (RSPHNCs) in seven Italian tertiary centers, while testing the Multi-Institution Reirradation (MIRI) recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) recently published. Methods We retrospectively analyzed 159 patients. Prognostic factors for overall survival (OS) selected by a random forest model were included in a multivariable Cox analysis. To externally validate MIRI RPA, we estimated the Kaplan-Meier group-stratified OS curves for the whole population. Results Five-year OS was 43.5% (median follow-up: 49.9 months). Nasopharyngeal site, no organ dysfunction, and re-RT volume <36 cm(3) were independent factors for better OS. By applying the MIRI RPA to our cohort, a Harrell C-Index of 0.526 was found indicating poor discriminative ability. Conclusion Our data reinforce the survival benefit of Re-RT for selected patients with RSPHNC. MIRI RPA was not validated in our population

An Observational Study to Develop a Predictive Model for Bacterial Pneumonia Diagnosis in Severe COVID-19 Patients-C19-PNEUMOSCORE

In COVID-19 patients, antibiotics overuse is still an issue. A predictive scoring model for the diagnosis of bacterial pneumonia at intensive care unit (ICU) admission would be a useful stewardship tool. We performed a multicenter observational study including 331 COVID-19 patients requiring invasive mechanical ventilation at ICU admission; 179 patients with bacterial pneumonia; and 152 displaying negative lower-respiratory samplings. A multivariable logistic regression model was built to identify predictors of pulmonary co-infections, and a composite risk score was developed using β-coefficients. We identified seven variables as predictors of bacterial pneumonia: vaccination status (OR 7.01; 95% CI, 1.73-28.39); chronic kidney disease (OR 3.16; 95% CI, 1.15-8.71); pre-ICU hospital length of stay ≥ 5 days (OR 1.94; 95% CI, 1.11-3.4); neutrophils ≥ 9.41 × 1

The association of indwelling urinary catheter with delirium in hospitalized patients and nursing home residents: an explorative analysis from the "Delirium Day 2015"

Backround: Use of indwelling urinary catheter (IUC) in older adults has negative consequences, including delirium. Aim: This analysis, from the "Delirium Day 2015", a nationwide multicenter prevalence study, aim to evaluate the association of IUC with delirium in hospitalized and Nursing Homes (NHs) patients. Methods: Patients underwent a comprehensive geriatric assessment, including the presence of IUC; inclusion criteria were age &gt; 65 years, being Italian speaker and providing informed consent; exclusion criteria were coma, aphasia, end-of-life status. Delirium was assessed using the 4AT test (score ≥ 4: possible delirium; scores 1-3: possible cognitive impairment). Results: Among 1867 hospitalized patients (mean age 82.0 ± 7.5 years, 58% female), 539 (28.9%) had IUC, 429 (22.9%) delirium and 675 (36.1%) cognitive impairment. IUC was significantly associated with cognitive impairment (OR 1.60, 95% CI 1.19-2.16) and delirium (2.45, 95% CI 1.73-3.47), this latter being significant also in the subset of patients without dementia (OR 2.28, 95% CI 1.52-3.43). Inattention and impaired alertness were also independently associated with IUC. Among 1454 NHs residents (mean age 84.4 ± 7.4 years, 70.% female), 63 (4.3%) had IUC, 535 (36.8%) a 4AT score ≥ 4, and 653 (44.9%) a 4AT score 1-3. The multivariate logistic regression analysis did not show a significant association between 4AT test or its specific items with IUC, neither in the subset of patients without dementia. Discussion: We confirmed a significant association between IUC and delirium in hospitalized patients but not in NHs residents. Conclusion: Environmental and clinical factors of acute setting might contribute to IUC-associated delirium occurrence

&quot;Delirium Day&quot;: A nationwide point prevalence study of delirium in older hospitalized patients using an easy standardized diagnostic tool

Background: To date, delirium prevalence in adult acute hospital populations has been estimated generally from pooled findings of single-center studies and/or among specific patient populations. Furthermore, the number of participants in these studies has not exceeded a few hundred. To overcome these limitations, we have determined, in a multicenter study, the prevalence of delirium over a single day among a large population of patients admitted to acute and rehabilitation hospital wards in Italy. Methods: This is a point prevalence study (called "Delirium Day") including 1867 older patients (aged 65 years or more) across 108 acute and 12 rehabilitation wards in Italian hospitals. Delirium was assessed on the same day in all patients using the 4AT, a validated and briefly administered tool which does not require training. We also collected data regarding motoric subtypes of delirium, functional and nutritional status, dementia, comorbidity, medications, feeding tubes, peripheral venous and urinary catheters, and physical restraints. Results: The mean sample age was 82.0 ± 7.5 years (58 % female). Overall, 429 patients (22.9 %) had delirium. Hypoactive was the commonest subtype (132/344 patients, 38.5 %), followed by mixed, hyperactive, and nonmotoric delirium. The prevalence was highest in Neurology (28.5 %) and Geriatrics (24.7 %), lowest in Rehabilitation (14.0 %), and intermediate in Orthopedic (20.6 %) and Internal Medicine wards (21.4 %). In a multivariable logistic regression, age (odds ratio [OR] 1.03, 95 % confidence interval [CI] 1.01-1.05), Activities of Daily Living dependence (OR 1.19, 95 % CI 1.12-1.27), dementia (OR 3.25, 95 % CI 2.41-4.38), malnutrition (OR 2.01, 95 % CI 1.29-3.14), and use of antipsychotics (OR 2.03, 95 % CI 1.45-2.82), feeding tubes (OR 2.51, 95 % CI 1.11-5.66), peripheral venous catheters (OR 1.41, 95 % CI 1.06-1.87), urinary catheters (OR 1.73, 95 % CI 1.30-2.29), and physical restraints (OR 1.84, 95 % CI 1.40-2.40) were associated with delirium. Admission to Neurology wards was also associated with delirium (OR 2.00, 95 % CI 1.29-3.14), while admission to other settings was not. Conclusions: Delirium occurred in more than one out of five patients in acute and rehabilitation hospital wards. Prevalence was highest in Neurology and lowest in Rehabilitation divisions. The "Delirium Day" project might become a useful method to assess delirium across hospital settings and a benchmarking platform for future surveys

COVID-19 Severity in Multiple Sclerosis: Putting Data Into Context

Background and objectives: It is unclear how multiple sclerosis (MS) affects the severity of COVID-19. The aim of this study is to compare COVID-19-related outcomes collected in an Italian cohort of patients with MS with the outcomes expected in the age- and sex-matched Italian population. Methods: Hospitalization, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and death after COVID-19 diagnosis of 1,362 patients with MS were compared with the age- and sex-matched Italian population in a retrospective observational case-cohort study with population-based control. The observed vs the expected events were compared in the whole MS cohort and in different subgroups (higher risk: Expanded Disability Status Scale [EDSS] score &gt; 3 or at least 1 comorbidity, lower risk: EDSS score ≤ 3 and no comorbidities) by the χ2 test, and the risk excess was quantified by risk ratios (RRs). Results: The risk of severe events was about twice the risk in the age- and sex-matched Italian population: RR = 2.12 for hospitalization (p &lt; 0.001), RR = 2.19 for ICU admission (p &lt; 0.001), and RR = 2.43 for death (p &lt; 0.001). The excess of risk was confined to the higher-risk group (n = 553). In lower-risk patients (n = 809), the rate of events was close to that of the Italian age- and sex-matched population (RR = 1.12 for hospitalization, RR = 1.52 for ICU admission, and RR = 1.19 for death). In the lower-risk group, an increased hospitalization risk was detected in patients on anti-CD20 (RR = 3.03, p = 0.005), whereas a decrease was detected in patients on interferon (0 observed vs 4 expected events, p = 0.04). Discussion: Overall, the MS cohort had a risk of severe events that is twice the risk than the age- and sex-matched Italian population. This excess of risk is mainly explained by the EDSS score and comorbidities, whereas a residual increase of hospitalization risk was observed in patients on anti-CD20 therapies and a decrease in people on interferon

DMTs and Covid-19 severity in MS: a pooled analysis from Italy and France

We evaluated the effect of DMTs on Covid-19 severity in patients with MS, with a pooled-analysis of two large cohorts from Italy and France. The association of baseline characteristics and DMTs with Covid-19 severity was assessed by multivariate ordinal-logistic models and pooled by a fixed-effect meta-analysis. 1066 patients with MS from Italy and 721 from France were included. In the multivariate model, anti-CD20 therapies were significantly associated (OR&nbsp;=&nbsp;2.05, 95%CI&nbsp;=&nbsp;1.39–3.02, p&nbsp;&lt;&nbsp;0.001) with Covid-19 severity, whereas interferon indicated a decreased risk (OR&nbsp;=&nbsp;0.42, 95%CI&nbsp;=&nbsp;0.18–0.99, p&nbsp;=&nbsp;0.047). This pooled-analysis confirms an increased risk of severe Covid-19 in patients on anti-CD20 therapies and supports the protective role of interferon

"Delirium Day": A nationwide point prevalence study of delirium in older hospitalized patients using an easy standardized diagnostic tool

Background: To date, delirium prevalence in adult acute hospital populations has been estimated generally from pooled findings of single-center studies and/or among specific patient populations. Furthermore, the number of participants in these studies has not exceeded a few hundred. To overcome these limitations, we have determined, in a multicenter study, the prevalence of delirium over a single day among a large population of patients admitted to acute and rehabilitation hospital wards in Italy. Methods: This is a point prevalence study (called "Delirium Day") including 1867 older patients (aged 65 years or more) across 108 acute and 12 rehabilitation wards in Italian hospitals. Delirium was assessed on the same day in all patients using the 4AT, a validated and briefly administered tool which does not require training. We also collected data regarding motoric subtypes of delirium, functional and nutritional status, dementia, comorbidity, medications, feeding tubes, peripheral venous and urinary catheters, and physical restraints. Results: The mean sample age was 82.0 \ub1 7.5 years (58 % female). Overall, 429 patients (22.9 %) had delirium. Hypoactive was the commonest subtype (132/344 patients, 38.5 %), followed by mixed, hyperactive, and nonmotoric delirium. The prevalence was highest in Neurology (28.5 %) and Geriatrics (24.7 %), lowest in Rehabilitation (14.0 %), and intermediate in Orthopedic (20.6 %) and Internal Medicine wards (21.4 %). In a multivariable logistic regression, age (odds ratio [OR] 1.03, 95 % confidence interval [CI] 1.01-1.05), Activities of Daily Living dependence (OR 1.19, 95 % CI 1.12-1.27), dementia (OR 3.25, 95 % CI 2.41-4.38), malnutrition (OR 2.01, 95 % CI 1.29-3.14), and use of antipsychotics (OR 2.03, 95 % CI 1.45-2.82), feeding tubes (OR 2.51, 95 % CI 1.11-5.66), peripheral venous catheters (OR 1.41, 95 % CI 1.06-1.87), urinary catheters (OR 1.73, 95 % CI 1.30-2.29), and physical restraints (OR 1.84, 95 % CI 1.40-2.40) were associated with delirium. Admission to Neurology wards was also associated with delirium (OR 2.00, 95 % CI 1.29-3.14), while admission to other settings was not. Conclusions: Delirium occurred in more than one out of five patients in acute and rehabilitation hospital wards. Prevalence was highest in Neurology and lowest in Rehabilitation divisions. The "Delirium Day" project might become a useful method to assess delirium across hospital settings and a benchmarking platform for future surveys