Nations within a nation: variations in epidemiological transition across the states of India, 1990-2016 in the Global Burden of Disease Study.

BACKGROUND: 18% of the world's population lives in India, and many states of India have populations similar to those of large countries. Action to effectively improve population health in India requires availability of reliable and comprehensive state-level estimates of disease burden and risk factors over time. Such comprehensive estimates have not been available so far for all major diseases and risk factors. Thus, we aimed to estimate the disease burden and risk factors in every state of India as part of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2016. METHODS: Using all available data sources, the India State-Level Disease Burden Initiative estimated burden (metrics were deaths, disability-adjusted life-years [DALYs], prevalence, incidence, and life expectancy) from 333 disease conditions and injuries and 84 risk factors for each state of India from 1990 to 2016 as part of GBD 2016. We divided the states of India into four epidemiological transition level (ETL) groups on the basis of the ratio of DALYs from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNDs) to those from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and injuries combined in 2016. We assessed variations in the burden of diseases and risk factors between ETL state groups and between states to inform a more specific health-system response in the states and for India as a whole. FINDINGS: DALYs due to NCDs and injuries exceeded those due to CMNNDs in 2003 for India, but this transition had a range of 24 years for the four ETL state groups. The age-standardised DALY rate dropped by 36·2% in India from 1990 to 2016. The numbers of DALYs and DALY rates dropped substantially for most CMNNDs between 1990 and 2016 across all ETL groups, but rates of reduction for CMNNDs were slowest in the low ETL state group. By contrast, numbers of DALYs increased substantially for NCDs in all ETL state groups, and increased significantly for injuries in all ETL state groups except the highest. The all-age prevalence of most leading NCDs increased substantially in India from 1990 to 2016, and a modest decrease was recorded in the age-standardised NCD DALY rates. The major risk factors for NCDs, including high systolic blood pressure, high fasting plasma glucose, high total cholesterol, and high body-mass index, increased from 1990 to 2016, with generally higher levels in higher ETL states; ambient air pollution also increased and was highest in the low ETL group. The incidence rate of the leading causes of injuries also increased from 1990 to 2016. The five leading individual causes of DALYs in India in 2016 were ischaemic heart disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, and cerebrovascular disease; and the five leading risk factors for DALYs in 2016 were child and maternal malnutrition, air pollution, dietary risks, high systolic blood pressure, and high fasting plasma glucose. Behind these broad trends many variations existed between the ETL state groups and between states within the ETL groups. Of the ten leading causes of disease burden in India in 2016, five causes had at least a five-times difference between the highest and lowest state-specific DALY rates for individual causes. INTERPRETATION: Per capita disease burden measured as DALY rate has dropped by about a third in India over the past 26 years. However, the magnitude and causes of disease burden and the risk factors vary greatly between the states. The change to dominance of NCDs and injuries over CMNNDs occurred about a quarter century apart in the four ETL state groups. Nevertheless, the burden of some of the leading CMNNDs continues to be very high, especially in the lowest ETL states. This comprehensive mapping of inequalities in disease burden and its causes across the states of India can be a crucial input for more specific health planning for each state as is envisioned by the Government of India's premier think tank, the National Institution for Transforming India, and the National Health Policy 2017. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; Indian Council of Medical Research, Department of Health Research, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India; and World Bank

The burden of chronic respiratory diseases and their heterogeneity across the states of India: the Global Burden of Disease Study 1990-2016

BACKGROUND: India has 18% of the global population and an increasing burden of chronic respiratory diseases. However, a systematic understanding of the distribution of chronic respiratory diseases and their trends over time is not readily available for all of the states of India. Our aim was to report the trends in the burden of chronic respiratory diseases and the heterogeneity in their distribution in all states of India between 1990 and 2016. METHODS: Using all accessible data from multiple sources, we estimated the prevalence of major chronic respiratory diseases and the deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) caused by them for every state of India from 1990 to 2016 as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016. We assessed heterogeneity in the burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and asthma across the states of India. The states were categorised into four groups based on their epidemiological transition level (ETL). ETL was defined as the ratio of DALYs from communicable diseases to those from non-communicable diseases and injuries combined, with a low ratio denoting high ETL and vice versa. We also assessed the contribution of risk factors to DALYs due to COPD. We compared the burden of chronic respiratory diseases in India against the global average in GBD 2016. We calculated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for the point estimates. FINDINGS: The contribution of chronic respiratory diseases to the total DALYs in India increased from 4·5% (95% UI 4·0-4·9) in 1990 to 6·4% (5·8-7·0) in 2016. Of the total global DALYs due to chronic respiratory diseases in 2016, 32·0% occurred in India. COPD and asthma were responsible for 75·6% and 20·0% of the chronic respiratory disease DALYs, respectively, in India in 2016. The number of cases of COPD in India increased from 28·1 million (27·0-29·2) in 1990 to 55·3 million (53·1-57·6) in 2016, an increase in prevalence from 3·3% (3·1-3·4) to 4·2% (4·0-4·4). The age-standardised COPD prevalence and DALY rates in 2016 were highest in the less developed low ETL state group. There were 37·9 million (35·7-40·2) cases of asthma in India in 2016, with similar prevalence in the four ETL state groups, but the highest DALY rate was in the low ETL state group. The highest DALY rates for both COPD and asthma in 2016 were in the low ETL states of Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh. The DALYs per case of COPD and asthma were 1·7 and 2·4 times higher in India than the global average in 2016, respectively; most states had higher rates compared with other locations worldwide at similar levels of Socio-demographic Index. Of the DALYs due to COPD in India in 2016, 53·7% (43·1-65·0) were attributable to air pollution, 25·4% (19·5-31·7) to tobacco use, and 16·5% (14·1-19·2) to occupational risks, making these the leading risk factors for COPD. INTERPRETATION: India has a disproportionately high burden of chronic respiratory diseases. The increasing contribution of these diseases to the overall disease burden across India and the high rate of health loss from them, especially in the less developed low ETL states, highlights the need for focused policy interventions to address this significant cause of disease burden in India. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; and Indian Council of Medical Research, Department of Health Research, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India

The changing patterns of cardiovascular diseases and their risk factors in the states of India: the Global Burden of Disease Study 1990-2016.

BACKGROUND: The burden of cardiovascular diseases is increasing in India, but a systematic understanding of its distribution and time trends across all the states is not readily available. In this report, we present a detailed analysis of how the patterns of cardiovascular diseases and major risk factors have changed across the states of India between 1990 and 2016. METHODS: We analysed the prevalence and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to cardiovascular diseases and the major component causes in the states of India from 1990 to 2016, using all accessible data sources as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016. We placed states into four groups based on epidemiological transition level (ETL), defined using the ratio of DALYs from communicable diseases to those from non-communicable diseases and injuries combined, with a low ratio denoting high ETL and vice versa. We assessed heterogeneity in the burden of major cardiovascular diseases across the states of India, and the contribution of risk factors to cardiovascular diseases. We calculated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for the point estimates. FINDINGS: Overall, cardiovascular diseases contributed 28·1% (95% UI 26·5-29·1) of the total deaths and 14·1% (12·9-15·3) of the total DALYs in India in 2016, compared with 15·2% (13·7-16·2) and 6·9% (6·3-7·4), respectively, in 1990. In 2016, there was a nine times difference between states in the DALY rate for ischaemic heart disease, a six times difference for stroke, and a four times difference for rheumatic heart disease. 23·8 million (95% UI 22·6-25·0) prevalent cases of ischaemic heart disease were estimated in India in 2016, and 6·5 million (6·3-6·8) prevalent cases of stroke, a 2·3 times increase in both disorders from 1990. The age-standardised prevalence of both ischaemic heart disease and stroke increased in all ETL state groups between 1990 and 2016, whereas that of rheumatic heart disease decreased; the increase for ischaemic heart disease was highest in the low ETL state group. 53·4% (95% UI 52·6-54·6) of crude deaths due to cardiovascular diseases in India in 2016 were among people younger than 70 years, with a higher proportion in the low ETL state group. The leading overlapping risk factors for cardiovascular diseases in 2016 included dietary risks (56·4% [95% CI 48·5-63·9] of cardiovascular disease DALYs), high systolic blood pressure (54·6% [49·0-59·8]), air pollution (31·1% [29·0-33·4]), high total cholesterol (29·4% [24·3-34·8]), tobacco use (18·9% [16·6-21·3]), high fasting plasma glucose (16·7% [11·4-23·5]), and high body-mass index (14·7% [8·3-22·0]). The prevalence of high systolic blood pressure, high total cholesterol, and high fasting plasma glucose increased generally across all ETL state groups from 1990 to 2016, but this increase was variable across the states; the prevalence of smoking decreased during this period in all ETL state groups. INTERPRETATION: The burden from the leading cardiovascular diseases in India-ischaemic heart disease and stroke-varies widely between the states. Their increasing prevalence and that of several major risk factors in every part of India, especially the highest increase in the prevalence of ischaemic heart disease in the less developed low ETL states, indicates the need for urgent policy and health system response appropriate for the situation in each state. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; and Indian Council of Medical Research, Department of Health Research, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India

A systematic review and meta-analysis of the prevalence of common mental disorders in people with non-communicable diseases in Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan

Background: The prevalence of mental and physical comorbidities is unknown in South Asia, as estimates of mental ill health in patients with non-communicable diseases (NCDs) have predominantly come from studies based in the United States, Europe and Australasia. This systematic review and meta-analysis summarises evidence and provides pooled estimates of the prevalence of common mental disorders in adults with non-communicable diseases in South Asia. Methods: We included prevalence studies of depression and anxiety in adults with diabetes, cancer, cardiovascular disease, and chronic respiratory conditions in Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan, published from 1990 onwards in international and country-specific databases. Results: Out of 96 included studies, 83 provided data for random effects meta-analyses. The pooled prevalence of depression was 44% (95% confidence interval (CI) = 26 to 62) for patients with COPD, 40% (95% CI = 34 to 45) for diabetes, 39% (95% CI = 23 to 56) for stroke, 38% (95% CI = 32 to 45) for hypertension, and 37% (95% CI = 30 to 45) for cancer. The pooled prevalence of anxiety based on 28 studies was 29% (95% CI = 22 to 36). Many quality issues were identified in a critical appraisal of included studies, mostly relating to the sampling frame and selection process, the description of the methods and basic data, and the description of non-responders. Conclusions: Depression and anxiety are prevalent and underdiagnosed in people with physical comorbidities in Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan

India and the United Kingdom-What big data health research can do for a country.

INTRODUCTION: Big data and growth in telecommunications have increased the enormous promise of an informatics approach to health care. India and the United Kingdom are two countries facing these challenges of implementing learning health systems and big data health research. ANALYSIS: At present, these opportunities are more likely to be exploited in the private sector or in public-private partnerships (eg, Public Health Foundation of India [PHFI]) than public sector ventures alone. In both India and the United Kingdom, the importance of health informatics (HIs), a relatively new discipline, is being recognised and there are national initiatives in academic and health sectors to fill gaps in big data health research. The challenges are in many ways greater in India but outweighed by three potential benefits in health-related scientific research: (a) increased productivity; (b) a learning health system with better use of data and better health outcomes; and (c) to fill workforce gaps in both research and practice. CONCLUSIONS: Despite several system-level obstacles, in India, big data research in health care can improve the status quo, whether in terms of patient outcomes or scientific discovery. Collaboration between India and the United Kingdom in HI can result in mutual benefits to academic and health care delivery organisations in both countries and can serve as examples to other countries embracing the promises and the pitfalls of health care research in the digital era

Prevalence of normal weight obesity and its associated cardio-metabolic risk factors - Results from the baseline data of the Kerala Diabetes Prevention Program (KDPP)

BACKGROUND: Cardiometabolic disorders are frequently observed among those who have obesity as measured by body mass index (BMI). However, there is limited data available on the cardiometabolic profile of those who are non-obese by BMI but with a high body fat percentage (BFP), a phenotype frequently observed in the Indian population. We examined the prevalence of individuals with normal weight obesity (NWO) and the cardiometabolic profile of NWO individuals at high risk for type 2 diabetes(T2D) in a south Asian population. MATERIAL AND METHODS: In the Kerala Diabetes Prevention Program, individuals aged between 30 to 60 years were screened using the Indian Diabetes Risk Score(IDRS) in 60 rural communities in the Indian state of Kerala. We used data from the baseline survey of this trial for this analysis which included 1147 eligible high diabetes risk individuals(IDRS >60). NWO was defined as BMI within the normal range and a high BFP (as per Asia-pacific ethnicity based cut-off); Non-obese (NO) as normal BMI and BFP and overtly obese (OB) as BMI ≥25 kg/m2 irrespective of the BFP. Data on demographic, clinical and biochemical characteristics were collected using standardized questionnaires and protocols. Body fat percentage was assessed using TANITA body composition analyser (model SC330), based on bioelectrical impedance. RESULTS: The mean age of participants was 47.3 ± 7.5 years and 46% were women. The proportion with NWO was 32% (n = 364; 95% CI: 29.1 to 34.5%), NO was 17% (n = 200) and OB was 51% (n = 583). Among those with NWO, 19.7% had T2D, compared to 18.7% of those who were OB (p value = 0.45) and 8% with NO (p value = 0.003). Among those with NWO, mean systolic and diastolic blood pressure were 129 ± 20; 78 ± 12 mmHg, compared to 127 ± 17; 78±11 mmHg among those with OB (p value = 0.12;0.94) and 120 ± 16; 71±10 mmHg among with NO (p value<0.001; 0.001), respectively. A similar pattern of association was observed for LDL cholesterol and triglycerides. After adjusting for other risk factors, the odds of having diabetes (OR:2.72[95% CI:1.46-5.08]) and dyslipidemia (2.37[1.55-3.64]) was significantly more in individuals with NWO as compared to non-obese individuals. CONCLUSIONS: Almost one-third of this South Asian population, at high risk for T2D, had normal weight obesity. The significantly higher cardiometabolic risk associated with increased adiposity even in lower BMI individuals has important implications for recognition in clinical practice

The achievement of food and nutrition security in South Asia is deeply gendered

Women form an integral part of the agricultural sector, and in much of South Asia women make up a majority of the agricultural workforce, often compelled to work in order to meet their families’ basic needs. While their contributions are recognised as central to the food and nutrition security of households and communities, their work is not recognized or supported adequately by public policy and social institutions. Women continue to face inequality across key development indicators including health, education, and nutrition; discriminatory laws; and high levels of precarity in terms of income, employment conditions, safety and wellbeing. Social structures that promote gender inequality and inhibit the agency of women contribute to the South Asian enigma – the persistence of undernutrition despite economic growth – and must be addressed to achieve food and nutrition security

Gender differentials and state variations in suicide deaths in India: the Global Burden of Disease Study 1990-2016.

BACKGROUND: A systematic understanding of suicide mortality trends over time at the subnational level for India's 1·3 billion people, 18% of the global population, is not readily available. Thus, we aimed to report time trends of suicide deaths, and the heterogeneity in its distribution between the states of India from 1990 to 2016. METHODS: As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016, we estimated suicide death rates (SDRs) for both sexes in each state of India from 1990 to 2016. We used various data sources for estimating cause-specific mortality in India. For suicide mortality in India before 2000, estimates were based largely on GBD covariates. For each state, we calculated the ratio of the observed SDR to the rate expected in geographies globally with similar GBD Socio-demographic Index in 2016 (ie, the observed-to-expected ratio); and assessed the age distribution of suicide deaths, and the men-to-women ratio of SDR over time. Finally, we assessed the probability for India and the states of reaching the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target of a one-third reduction in SDR from 2015 to 2030, using location-wise trends of the age-standardised SDR from 1990 to 2016. We calculated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for the point estimates. FINDINGS: There were 230 314 (95% UI 194 058-250 260) suicide deaths in India in 2016. India's contribution to global suicide deaths increased from 25·3% in 1990 to 36·6% in 2016 among women, and from 18·7% to 24·3% among men. Age-standardised SDR among women in India reduced by 26·7% from 20·0 (95% UI 16·5-23·5) in 1990 to 14·7 (13·1-16·2) per 100 000 in 2016, but the age-standardised SDR among men was the same in 1990 (22·3 [95% UI 14·4-27·4] per 100 000) and 2016 (21·2 [14·6-23·6] per 100 000). SDR in women was 2·1 times higher in India than the global average in 2016, and the observed-to-expected ratio was 2·74, ranging from 0·45 to 4·54 between the states. SDR in men was 1·4 times higher in India than the global average in 2016, with an observed-to-expected ratio of 1·31, ranging from 0·40 to 2·42 between the states. There was a ten-fold variation between the states in the SDR for women and six-fold variation for men in 2016. The men-to-women ratio of SDR for India was 1·34 in 2016, ranging from 0·97 to 4·11 between the states. The highest age-specific SDRs among women in 2016 were for ages 15-29 years and 75 years or older, and among men for ages 75 years or older. Suicide was the leading cause of death in India in 2016 for those aged 15-39 years; 71·2% of the suicide deaths among women and 57·7% among men were in this age group. If the trends observed up to 2016 continue, the probability of India achieving the SDG SDR reduction target in 2030 is zero, and the majority of the states with 81·3% of India's population have less than 10% probability, three states have a probability of 10·3-15·0%, and six have a probability of 25·1-36·7%. INTERPRETATION: India's proportional contribution to global suicide deaths is high and increasing. SDR in India is higher than expected for its Socio-Demographic Index level, especially for women, with substantial variations in the magnitude and men-to-women ratio between the states. India must develop a suicide prevention strategy that takes into account these variations in order to address this major public health problem. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; and Indian Council of Medical Research, Department of Health Research, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India

Factors governing the performance of Auxiliary Nurse Midwives in India: a study in Pune district

Background: The Auxiliary nurse midwife (ANM) cadre was created to focus on maternal and child health. ANMs are respected members of their communities and established providers of maternal and child health care within the community and at the facility level. Over time, additional roles and responsibilities have been added. Despite the importance of ANMs in the primary healthcare system in India, studies that consider factors governing the performance of ANMs in their workplaces are limited. We aimed to study factors governing performance of ANMs in Pune district, India. Methods: Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 13 purposely selected key informants at facility, district, state, and national levels. Focus group discussions were conducted with 41 ANMs and 25 members of the community. Non-participatory observations with eight ANMs provided information to expand on and scrutinise findings that emerged from the other lines of inquiry. A realist lens was applied to identify ANMs’ performance as a result of “mechanisms” (training, supervision, accountability mechanisms) within the given “context” (regulatory system, infrastructure and resources, ANMs’ expanded scope of work, gender roles and norms). Results: Weak enforcement of regulatory system led to poor standardisation of training quality among training institutions. Challenges in internal accountability mechanisms governing ANMs within the health system hierarchy made it difficult to ensure individual accountability. Training and supervision received were inadequate to address current responsibilities. The supervisory approach focused on comparing information in periodic reports against expected outputs. Clinical support in workplaces was insufficient, with very little problem identification and solving. Conclusion: Focusing on the tasks of ANMs with technical inputs alone is insufficient to achieve the full potential of ANMs in a changing context. Systematic efforts tackling factors governing ANMs in their workplaces can produce a useful cadre, that can play an important role in achieving universal health coverage in India