Modeling the spatial and temporal trends of water quality in boreal managed watersheds

Land use changes have altered natural hydrological pathways and biogeochemical cycling of carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus, among other elements, affecting the quality of aquatic ecosystems such as rivers, lakes and coastal areas. In this dissertation, the spatial and temporal trends of water quality variation in Finnish managed watersheds was studied by applying methods of multivariate statistics, time-series analysis, ecohydrological modeling and high-resolution geospatial data. The results show the complex effects of current land use, particularly agriculture, on stream water quality. New emerging trends of nutrient concentrations and loads were detected in the time-series analysis, such as an increase in the concentrations and loads of dissolved reactive phosphorus and total nitrogen, and a decrease in suspended sediment concentration in streams. This might be linked to the current erosion reduction strategy of land management for water protection. An ecohydrological modeling assessment showed an increasing downstream nutrient export from agricultural watershed under climate change scenarios. The modeling results also showed a potential nutrient export reduction by restoring potential biogeochemical hotspot areas - wet areas or areas prone to water saturation. These areas can function as nutrient sinks and enhance the watershed resiliency. High-resolution geospatial data allowed easier and more accurate mapping of wet areas as well as the extracting of their hydraulic characteristics. However, the ecohydrological models involved several sources of uncertainties, which need to be carefully addressed with extensive observational data, expert knowledge of model parameter definitions, proper modeling unit selection and empirical knowledge of the functioning of the studied watershed system. The results of this dissertation highlight the importance of combined methods for watershed management research, and the proper identification of the biophysical processes in the modeling of non-point pollutant sources; this can in turn lead to an efficient water protection measure, and restoring biogeochemical hotspot areas within the watershed.Vedenlaadun alueellisten ja ajallisten vaihteluiden mallintaminen viileän vyöhykkeen valuma-alueilla. Maankäytön muutokset ovat vaikuttaneet luonnollisiin hydrologisiin prosesseihin sekä hiilen, typen ja fosforin biogeokemiallisiin kiertoihin. Nämä puolestaan vaikuttavat vesiekosysteemien tilaan joissa, järvissä ja rannikkoalueella. Väitöstutkimuksessa tutkittiin vedenlaadun alueellisia ja ajallisia muutoksia suomalaisessa maaseutumaisemassa käyttäen monimuuttujamenetelmiä, aikasarja-analyysejä, ekohydrologista mallinnusta ja erotuskyvyltään tarkkoja paikkatietoaineistoja. Tulokset todentavat maatalouteen kytkeytyvien maankäytön piirteiden kompleksisia vaikutuksia jokivesien laatuun. Aikasarja-analyysit osoittivat myös aiemmin tuntemattomia trendejä jokivesien ravinteiden määrissä ja pitoisuuksissa, esimerkkeinä liuenneen reaktiivisen fosforin määrän ja pitoisuuden lisääntyminen sekä sedimenttisuspension väheneminen; molemmat eroosion vähentämiseen tähtäävien vesiensuojelutoimien seurauksena. Ekohydrologinen mallinnus osoitti myös sen, että ravinteiden huuhtoutuminen maatalousvaltaisilla valuma-alueilla lisääntyy ilmastonmuutoksen seurauksena. Tulokset kannustavat biogeokemiallisten avainalueiden, kuten kosteikkojen ja vettä keräävien painanteiden kunnostamiseen, jolloin ravinteiden huuhtoutuminen vähenee. Ravinnenieluina toimiessaan ne voivat myös parantaa valumaalueen ekologista kestävyyttä ja palautumiskykyä. Tutkimuksessa osoitettiin myös erotuskyvyltään tarkkojen paikkatietoaineistojen hyödyllisyys avainalueiden kartoituksessa ja alueiden hydrologisten ominaisuuksien tunnistamisessa. Ekohydrologiseen mallinnukseen sisältyy toisaalta myös epävarmuustekijöitä, joihin tulisi paneutua vielä kattavammin hyödyntäen asiantuntijatietoa parametrien täsmentämisessä, määrittämällä tarkennettuja mallinnusyksiköitä tai hyödyntäen empiirisiä tutkimustietoja valuma-alueen toiminnasta. Väitöstutkimus osoittaa myös sen, miten erilaisten tutkimusmenetelmien yhdistely vahvistaa valuma-aluetarkastelua ja siihen liittyen erilaisten biofysikaalisten prosessien ymmärtämistä ja keskeisten päästölähteiden mallintamista. Näin muodoin yhdistelmämenetelmien käyttö tukee entistä tehokkaampien vesiensuojelutoimien kehittämistä ja valumaalueiden biogeokemiallisten avainalueiden kunnostamistaModelado de las tendencias temporales y espaciales de la calidad del agua en cuencas hidrográficas boreales manejados. El cambio del uso del suelo ha alterado los procesos hidrológicos naturales y los ciclos biogeoquímicos del carbono, el nitrógeno y el fósforo, entre otros elementos, afectando directamente la calidad de los ecosistemas acuáticos como los ríos, lagos y zonas costeras. En esta disertación, las tendencias espaciales y temporales de la variación de la calidad del agua en cuencas hidrográficas finlandesas se estudiaron mediante la aplicación de métodos de estadística multivariante, análisis de series de tiempo, modelos ecohidrológicos y datos geoespaciales de alta resolución. Los resultados muestran los efectos complejos del uso actual del suelo, particularmente la agricultura, en la calidad del agua de los ríos y corrientes. Se detectaron nuevas tendencias emergentes de concentraciones y cargas de nutrientes en el análisis de series temporales, como un aumento en la concentración y carga del fósforo disuelto reactive y nitrógeno total, y una disminución en la concentración de sedimentos en suspensión en los ríos y corrientes. Esto podría estar vinculado a la estrategia actual de manejo del suelo, orientado a la reducción de la erosión para la protección del agua. Una evaluación a través de modelización ecohidrológica mostró un aumento de la exportación de nutrientes aguas abajo de la cuenca agrícola bajo escenarios de cambio climático. Los resultados de la modelización también mostraron una posible reducción de la exportación de nutrientes mediante la restauración de posibles zonas críticas biogeoquímicas: áreas húmedas o áreas propensas a la saturación de agua. Estas áreas pueden funcionar como sumideros de nutrientes y mejorar la resiliencia de la cuenca. Los datos geoespaciales de alta resolución permitieron un fácil y más preciso cartografiado de las áreas húmedas, así como la extracción de sus características hidráulicas. Sin embargo, los modelos ecohidrológicos involucraron varias fuentes de incertidumbre, que deben abordarse cuidadosamente con bastantes datos de observación, conocimiento experto de las definiciones de los parámetros del modelo, selección adecuada de la unidad de modelado y conocimiento empírico del funcionamiento del sistema de la cuenca estudiada. Los resultados de esta disertación destacan la importancia de los métodos combinados para la investigación de gestión de cuencas hidrográficas y la identificación adecuada de los procesos biofísicos en la modelización de fuentes contaminantes difusas; esto a su vez puede conducir a una medidaeficiente de protección del agua, y restauración de áreas claves de alta función biogeoquímica dentro de la cuenca

Elevational Shifts in the Topographic Position of Polylepis Forest Stands in the Andes of Southern Peru

 The patchy distribution of high-Andean treeline forests has provoked discussion aboutthe relative importance of anthropogenic and climatic causes of this pattern, both of whichvary with topography. We aimed to understand the topographic controls on the distribution ofPolylepis subsericans  treeline forests in the Andes of southern Peru, and the changes in these controlsalong an elevational gradient. We mapped Polylepis  forests in the Cordillera Urubamba, Cusco,using high-resolution aerial images and related forest cover to topographic variables extracted from adigital terrain model (30-m resolution). The variables were selected based on their expected biologicalrelevance for tree growth at high elevations. We constructed logistic regression models of forestcover, separately for each of five 100-m elevational belts. To deal with spatial autocorrelation, modelswere based on randomized 10% subsampling of the data with 1000 repetitions. The results suggest aconsistent shift in topographic preference with elevation, with forests at lower elevations showinga preference for topographically protected sites near rivers and forests at higher elevations beingincreasingly restricted to north-facing and well-drained sites. Our study offers the first indication ofthe ability of Andean treeline forests to benefit from the topographic heterogeneity of the high-Andes.Providing that dispersal and establishment are possible, local relocation between microsites could help these forests to persist regionally in spite of changing climatic conditions.</p

Elevational Shifts in the Topographic Position of Polylepis Forest Stands in the Andes of Southern Peru

The patchy distribution of high-Andean treeline forests has provoked discussion about the relative importance of anthropogenic and climatic causes of this pattern, both of which vary with topography. We aimed to understand the topographic controls on the distribution of Polylepis subsericans treeline forests in the Andes of southern Peru, and the changes in these controls along an elevational gradient. We mapped Polylepis forests in the Cordillera Urubamba, Cusco, using high-resolution aerial images and related forest cover to topographic variables extracted from a digital terrain model (30-m resolution). The variables were selected based on their expected biological relevance for tree growth at high elevations. We constructed logistic regression models of forest cover, separately for each of five 100-m elevational belts. To deal with spatial autocorrelation, models were based on randomized 10% subsampling of the data with 1000 repetitions. The results suggest a consistent shift in topographic preference with elevation, with forests at lower elevations showing a preference for topographically protected sites near rivers and forests at higher elevations being increasingly restricted to north-facing and well-drained sites. Our study offers the first indication of the ability of Andean treeline forests to benefit from the topographic heterogeneity of the high-Andes. Providing that dispersal and establishment are possible, local relocation between microsites could help these forests to persist regionally in spite of changing climatic conditions

Relict high-Andean ecosystems challenge our concepts of naturalness and human impact

What would current ecosystems be like without the impact of mankind? This question, which is critical for ecosystem management, has long remained unanswered due to a lack of present-day data from truly undisturbed ecosystems. Using mountaineering techniques, we accessed pristine relict ecosystems in the Peruvian Andes to provide this baseline data and compared it with the surrounding accessible and disturbed landscape. We show that natural ecosystems and human impact in the high Andes are radically different from preconceived ideas. Vegetation of these ‘lost worlds’ was dominated by plant species previously unknown to science that have become extinct in nearby human-affected ecosystems. Furthermore, natural vegetation had greater plant biomass with potentially as much as ten times more forest, but lower plant diversity. Contrary to our expectations, soils showed relatively little degradation when compared within a vegetation type, but differed mainly between forest and grassland ecosystems. At the landscape level, a presumed large-scale forest reduction resulted in a nowadays more acidic soilscape with higher carbon storage, partly ameliorating carbon loss through deforestation. Human impact in the high Andes, thus, had mixed effects on biodiversity, while soils and carbon stocks would have been mainly indirectly affected through a suggested large-scale vegetation change.Fil: Sylvester, Steven P.. Universitat Zurich; Suiza. Philipps-Universität Marburg; AlemaniaFil: Heitkamp, Felix. Universität Göttingen; AlemaniaFil: Sylvester, Mitsy D. P. V.. Universitat Zurich; Suiza. Universidad Nacional del San Antonio Abad del Cusco; PerúFil: Jungkunst, Hermann F.. Universität Koblenz-Landau; AlemaniaFil: Sipman, Harrie J. M.. Freie Universität Berlin; AlemaniaFil: Toivonen, Johanna M.. University of Turku; FinlandiaFil: Gonzales Inca, Carlos A.. University of Turku; FinlandiaFil: Ospina Gonzalez, Juan Camilo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Instituto de Botánica Darwinion. Academia Nacional de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas y Naturales. Instituto de Botánica Darwinion; ArgentinaFil: Kessler, Michael. Universitat Zurich; Suiz

Geospatial artificial intelligence (GeoAI) in the integrated hydrological and fluvial systems modeling:review of current applications and trends

Abstract This paper reviews the current GeoAI and machine learning applications in hydrological and hydraulic modeling, hydrological optimization problems, water quality modeling, and fluvial geomorphic and morphodynamic mapping. GeoAI effectively harnesses the vast amount of spatial and non-spatial data collected with the new automatic technologies. The fast development of GeoAI provides multiple methods and techniques, although it also makes comparisons between different methods challenging. Overall, selecting a particular GeoAI method depends on the application’s objective, data availability, and user expertise. GeoAI has shown advantages in non-linear modeling, computational efficiency, integration of multiple data sources, high accurate prediction capability, and the unraveling of new hydrological patterns and processes. A major drawback in most GeoAI models is the adequate model setting and low physical interpretability, explainability, and model generalization. The most recent research on hydrological GeoAI has focused on integrating the physical-based models’ principles with the GeoAI methods and on the progress towards autonomous prediction and forecasting systems

Relict high-Andean ecosystems challenge our concepts of naturalness and human impact

What would current ecosystems be like without the impact of mankind? This question, which is critical for ecosystem management, has long remained unanswered due to a lack of present-day data from truly undisturbed ecosystems. Using mountaineering techniques, we accessed pristine relict ecosystems in the Peruvian Andes to provide this baseline data and compared it with the surrounding accessible and disturbed landscape. We show that natural ecosystems and human impact in the high Andes are radically different from preconceived ideas. Vegetation of these 'lost worlds' was dominated by plant species previously unknown to science that have become extinct in nearby human-affected ecosystems. Furthermore, natural vegetation had greater plant biomass with potentially as much as ten times more forest, but lower plant diversity. Contrary to our expectations, soils showed relatively little degradation when compared within a vegetation type, but differed mainly between forest and grassland ecosystems. At the landscape level, a presumed large-scale forest reduction resulted in a nowadays more acidic soilscape with higher carbon storage, partly ameliorating carbon loss through deforestation. Human impact in the high Andes, thus, had mixed effects on biodiversity, while soils and carbon stocks would have been mainly indirectly affected through a suggested large-scale vegetation change